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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    One might be surprised that bearish Jeff actually thinks it could turn cold again as soon as the New Year. I'm inferring from / building on Jax's posts above. GFS wants to get tropical convection going over Indonesia which is a warm signal here. ECMWF might have a better handle with a weaker response over Indonesia. SSTs are closer to normal (prev cooler) but absolute SSTs keep dropping in Dec. Plus the IOD is still lit. China Met Agency has the China warming up from below normal to slightly above normal in a few days; then, warmer than normal next week. However they never go super warm and they trend back down. They agree with the ECMWF model, which cools down China faster than the GFS does. This only works at certain wavelengths, but I figure the Southeast US will similarly avoid a massive prolonged warm spell. Mild but not forever. Agree with Jax Christmas looks mild. Mele Kalikimaka. However I have hopes the New Year brings new chances of snow.
  2. nrgjeff
    Short-term I like the Morristown discussion issued Sunday pre-dawn, digging into type of precip. Partial thickness and temperature profiles support the forecast disco. I also agree non-event though. Mid-term the Ensembles have gone all mild. I really doubt it lasts, but could be a mild Holiday. How do you say Merry Christmas in Hawaiian? Mele Kalikimaka! Even the cluster with AK ridging has the PNA backwards for the Southeast, giving the Rockies/Plains the cold instead. Again, I figure it won't last forever. This year the see-saw goes both ways. Long-term I would not worry that the Strato did a major head-fake. Even if it had been jostled, it's normally not too impactful anyway the first tries of the season. Maybe next time will work out closer to the core of winter.
  3. nrgjeff
    LOL when 5-days or less forecasts are still in Banter, we don't trust the models much. I agree though. Nashville pre-dawn Sunday discussion said it best. Better luck next time snow enthusiasts. When's the next chance of severe weather, or the first decent Bowl game?
  4. nrgjeff
    ECMWF seems to like a second back piece of energy near/post frontal (Tuesday) even if it's weak. Wobbles between still mainly rain, or a chance of snow I-40 north (and Plateau). Can't see any path for Chattanooga though. My next post will probably be on Monday. Hard to feel anticipation when I've got Chatty near 0% but I'm always happy for members up north (or northwest) who get snow. If this one craps out, the pattern remains cold-ish for several days after fropa with East troughing. For now, have a good weekend!
  5. nrgjeff
    ^ Half joking but could be right on. Late next week winter storm could be interesting in the true Mid-South (MEM/PAH) and a real CAD beast over in the Carolinas. If it even happens, I'm counting on WAA magic in the Valley to get KCHA* above freezing shortly after onset of precip. I hate that when it's snow. Love it when it bails us out of ice! Still a day 8-10 event. GFS is slower than the ECMWF because the GFS gins it up stronger over New Mexico and Texas which slows it. 12Z Euro yesterday had energy from the Southwest but did not really get going until East Texas. Timing differences are not too important this far out. Main theme is NWP shows a chance of a winter storm. Other scenarios include drier cold or a cutter; so, I'm not too excited. Regardless most all scenarios keep Chattanooga mainly rain, which I will always take over ice. If the Mid-South scores I'm hoping sleet and snow; less/no FZRA makes my job easier. I'll leave the Carolina CAD to the Southeast forum. Just keep that crap out of KCHA - unless all levels cold enough for snow. *KCHA typically does warm up as fast as progged, but just CHA. From Athens north, including Maryville and Knoxville, cold tends to hold longer than progged.
  6. nrgjeff
    Temperatures look to trend at or below normal next week (after Mon/Tue) and maybe the following week. The colder shift in the 6-10 day started sneaking in progs a couple days ago. Then the 11-15 day joined in on a second cold front. NWP run-over-run cold gains have stopped, but the pattern looks seasonably cold (or colder) attm. Big AK ridging is a point of strong agreement. Whether the PNA lines up for the Southeast or for the Rockies/Plains remains to be seen. Even the latter would eventually bleed east. The 11-15 day trough looks a little sharper than that of the 6-10 day. The broader 6-10 day might mean less South. The deeper 11-15 day could deliver to lower latitudes, but the PNA will guide trajectory. Texas blue norther fading toward the Southeast, or Midwest hammer direct to Southeast? Tough to know yet. Precipitation is my usual. Probably rain except Plateau and Mountain leftovers. That's progs verbatim. Lots of cutters and post-frontal garbage which won't work out East Tenn. Things could change either direction. Precipitation in the extended.. That seems to work well in February. Sometimes even January. That Feb. Valentines Day snow is legendary, lol!
  7. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weekly charts are pretty benign, no matter what side one favors. The warm weeks 2-3 are already advertised in the ECMWF ensembles. While a loss to the GFS, it's no change within the European guidance. End of December is shown seasonable for the most part. Clusters are all over the place, common for week 4 where accuracy drops. Main takeaway is no endless blowtorch. Euro looks too cold in the Rockies, perhaps its snow feedback issue. Southwest low for two weeks? Doubt that. Early January (weeks 5-6) is so far out of the range of skill for these products that I will withhold comment. Slightly mild but mostly meaningless. Instead will need to watch sub-seasonal drivers which are indeed a mess, as mentioned in previous posts.
  8. nrgjeff
    I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.
  9. nrgjeff
    Yeah the next big cold shot (11-15 day) may dive into the West first. Therefore a Midwest cutter would not surprise me. Note I'm skipping next week and talking 11-15 day. KCMO TV Met Gary Lezak released his public winter forecast. The really good stuff is behind a paywall; but, I can infer plenty from the KC forecast. He's cold and snowy in KC. Unfortunately that is a Plains favorable storm track, which matches much of what has been observed since September. Said primary pattern is cutters, especially bad for southeast Tenn. However a secondary pattern is forecast. He does not discuss it on the public forecast; but, his system has a secondary pattern. That's the colder northwest flow when our region could benefit. Especially true if split flow and a slider or two from Texas through Georgia. I figure all that good stuff is more likely Jan/Feb. Will try not to sweat a mild December. Pun intended? Only if we need AC at Christmas like four years ago, lol!
  10. nrgjeff
    Since I'm a Met I can't really throw rocks at the CDC folks, lol! UT would have beat FSU except those turnovers. I wouldn't worry too much this early in the season. Jax congratulations on the Iron Bowl! That is always fun esp when it's at Auburn. Kansas wins the Maui Jim Invitational. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Finally, jumped on some Cyber Monday ski lift tickets (Snowshoe and WinterPlace WV). Sorry if I cause a permanent SER now.
  11. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you!
  12. nrgjeff
    Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain saw a dusting of snow this morning. Just rain in Chattanooga proper. Anybody surprised? Didn't think so. The only snowflakes I think I'll see this December (East Brainerd area) are the cheesy lights hanging on my house, lol!
  13. nrgjeff
    Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!
  14. nrgjeff
    Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!
  15. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases.
  16. nrgjeff
    GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.
  17. nrgjeff
    I was on my butt with the flu since the weekend. I'll take Dixie Alley severe as SER departs and worry about cold later. Just kidding! Well, not really, but... GFS is probably too fast with the frozen 11-15 day; however, one might use the GFS as the heads-up to start looking for cold on the EPS. The latter wants to dump West first. Anybody surprised there? Euro Op just went colder 6-10 day but the EPS is muted there. The latter still keeps the 11-15 day meh in the Southeast. All that said, I'm starting to buy a possible cold snap later the first week of December. Late 11-15 day forecasts are consistent with building North Pac to AK ridging. By then the West Pac typhoon stuff will have run its course; so, one would think the models could be trusted on such a broad pattern in a more core winter month of Dec. If the MJO does not die, but goes into a colder phase with some strength, that would also help. IOD and Nino favor the colder phases. Cooler (relative to normal) water near Indonesia could mute warmer phases. Might still be early for SSW to help with cold, but if that keeps up the table could be set for later in winter. Bottom line: I favor the slower west-to-east European version. Gets cold in here after December 1.
  18. nrgjeff
    EPS just went colder hour 360. Normally that's banter, but check out the buffet line of teleconnections Carvers mentions just above. Issue has been a raging +WPO (warm) vs everything else cold. If a true +PNA develops (with Hawaii ridge) that could be what breaks toward colder here in the Southeast. -NAO too of course; but, some +PNA could fight off the WPO. Billiard ball meteorology, lol!
  19. nrgjeff
    I missed this thread over the long weekend. Per water vapor and 12Z charts a true short-wave slide through the Deep South below Tennessee. Hence post-frontal snow verified at or above forecast. Chattanooga proper only had flurries - shocker there. Dusting fell up on Signal Mountain. Congrats to all who enjoyed snow, esp if above expectations.
  20. nrgjeff
    Agree with those who do not worry too much about the weekly forecasts. They've been awful past week 3 since the dinosaurs were around. Both have badly missed cold snaps. Rest of November probably will get back closer to normal for Thanksgiving. Works for me and Chattanooga's Holiday on the Landing. December could start out colder than shown. WPO wants to go positive which is a warm signal, but perhaps more consequential for the Plains. Meanwhile the PNA wants to go positive, a cool signal here. Models are clueless and maybe too warm. It's a rare event when I lean colder than NWP, but this might be one of those times. I'm still mild December, but not as warm as those weeklies.
  21. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr.
  22. nrgjeff
    Typically I fade cold chasing rain and post-frontal junk. Chattanooga will whiff; that's easy! However the strength of cold air and lingering moisture may actually squeeze out the dusting Middle and Western Tenn. 2m temps are forecast around freezing, vs just-in-time cold there. Orographic areas (TRI) may see slight snow too. Knox to MRX is a crap shoot. Looking ahead I'm starting to buy the cold balance of November. How does it look for the rest of winter? Last year failed, but we have a key difference this year. GLAAM is going negative this year. It hung up positive last year, then the cold pattern broke down after December. This is is different, but I'm not promising all cold. I'm still a little bearish. However it should be colder than last year. QBO remains positive, but a downward trend would interest me. I'm almost 100% trend (delta) over initial reading. Downward trend would be bullish. NWP flirts with strato warming but I think it's still too early to bank on that. My gut says cold Great Lakes with occasional bleed South. SER may poke back up occasionally. At any rate I survived the time change. I'm getting used to the cold. I'm asking Southeast forum when the NC ski areas open. Attitude adjustment complete. Bring on winter!
  23. nrgjeff
    Yuge college football weekend! Tennessee will beat UK I believe. Alabama and LSU is kind of like forecasting snow with a 540 thickness. In Chattanooga that's only 50/50, lol!
  24. nrgjeff
    Tis the season for cold chasing snow in the Valley; and, chaos on 441. Perhaps I've never noticed in years past, but Chattanooga's Lookout Mtn, Raccoon Mtn, and Signal Mtn appear to all be peaking color at the same time top to bottom. Usually the top is past peak when the bottom is lit. Might be one more good weekend of foliage viewing. Better late than never. Also color looks good. Drought is not a deal killer if spring is rainy (it was). Rain returned recently, but that was after trees started going to sleep anyway. Spring rain is why they made it through the drought. Thinking about local hikes around Chatty. Other possibilities include Cherokee NF, and Little River Canyon, AL. Prentice Cooper would be great; but, I think it's closed for hunting attm. Anybody else notice good color top to bottom of mountains and ridges?
  25. nrgjeff
    Looks like you had awesome color this year. I got apathetic with the drought; but, should have known spring was rainy so all is good. Congrats to all who scored fantastic foliage! Now it looks cold through November. Anybody heard anything about NC ski areas opening dates? Thank you!
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