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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Sleet in East Brainerd (Chattanooga) which matches official KCHA ob. I'm falling out of my chair, winter precip actually made it into the valley floor / Chattanooga proper, lol! Nothing sticking. I wasn't even checking until I heard it on a north facing window. I'm still recovering from almost falling out of my chair.
  2. nrgjeff
    Good to see new members posting. Thank you for the observations! Welcome to the board. If long time lurkers, welcome to posting on the board. Memphis will have a tough time. Looks like that dry air aloft is quite evident on the radar, hole around the site. Nashville might have the same problem; however, being farther east keeps BNA in the game longer. GFS bless its heart. Had the dry air near MEM but still tried to spit out lots of snow accumulation. GFS forecast all that virga but forgot it's not hitting the ground. NAM radar simulation looks wrong compared to live composite radar; however, NAM is right it's not hitting the ground. I still think it could be a good day on the Upper Plateau into East Kentucky. Have the Ice Cube song ready, lol! MRX to TRI is such a crap shoot trying to get the Valley to cool off. However maybe the NWS has a point about cold air delayed but not denied meeting moisture at the right time. (Post is back on page 3). Speaking of looking back, page 4 dual pole radar discussion is a good read. Thanks y'all. One easy part of the forecast: Chattanooga all rain.
  3. nrgjeff
    Looks good Middle Tennessee. Looks boring southeast Tenn. I've been surprised at ECMWF snowfall output. Euro seems to be accumulating too soon with the warm ground and questionable 2m temps. Plus the old fashioned thickness/QPF chart ends precip so quickly right after thicknesses drop. Yes, the 06Z is more realistic with the Valley of Death black hole. NAM might be more realistic with lighter totals. Interestingly, the NAM shows temps cold enough for a few hours during light QPF. Its thickness/QPF chart meshes well with its snow output, which adds confidence over the Euro. While my lighter model choice may sound bearish, at least it accumulates a little - an improvement over my thoughts yesterday. Plateau and parts of Middle Tennessee lower elevations appear to have a good shot at sticking snow. Might only be an inch or so but it should be really pretty sticking to the trees and stuff. Mountains of course will get theirs later, but that's pretty much a given. Forecast fun is at lower elevations. A more vigorous last piece of energy could drop a couple inches west of the Plateau with 3+ on the Plateau. More likely scenario is less than an inch lower elevations (Mid-Tenn) to a couple inches Plateau. Mid-South edit: Gut says it gets going east of Memphis and North Mississippi. However that area is infamous for surprises with rushing cold fronts. We'll see, but I doubt it. I'm not expecting anything around Chattanooga. Maybe Signal Mountain dusting, iff the more vigorous case above. I've doubts about Huntsville and Knoxville, but we'll see. Feel better about Tri Cities, maybe even Morristown. Those two can do OK with lingering moisture. Still think the best correctly timed true lift will be Middle Tenn.
  4. nrgjeff
    One might be surprised that bearish Jeff actually thinks it could turn cold again as soon as the New Year. I'm inferring from / building on Jax's posts above. GFS wants to get tropical convection going over Indonesia which is a warm signal here. ECMWF might have a better handle with a weaker response over Indonesia. SSTs are closer to normal (prev cooler) but absolute SSTs keep dropping in Dec. Plus the IOD is still lit. China Met Agency has the China warming up from below normal to slightly above normal in a few days; then, warmer than normal next week. However they never go super warm and they trend back down. They agree with the ECMWF model, which cools down China faster than the GFS does. This only works at certain wavelengths, but I figure the Southeast US will similarly avoid a massive prolonged warm spell. Mild but not forever. Agree with Jax Christmas looks mild. Mele Kalikimaka. However I have hopes the New Year brings new chances of snow.
  5. nrgjeff
    Short-term I like the Morristown discussion issued Sunday pre-dawn, digging into type of precip. Partial thickness and temperature profiles support the forecast disco. I also agree non-event though. Mid-term the Ensembles have gone all mild. I really doubt it lasts, but could be a mild Holiday. How do you say Merry Christmas in Hawaiian? Mele Kalikimaka! Even the cluster with AK ridging has the PNA backwards for the Southeast, giving the Rockies/Plains the cold instead. Again, I figure it won't last forever. This year the see-saw goes both ways. Long-term I would not worry that the Strato did a major head-fake. Even if it had been jostled, it's normally not too impactful anyway the first tries of the season. Maybe next time will work out closer to the core of winter.
  6. nrgjeff
    LOL when 5-days or less forecasts are still in Banter, we don't trust the models much. I agree though. Nashville pre-dawn Sunday discussion said it best. Better luck next time snow enthusiasts. When's the next chance of severe weather, or the first decent Bowl game?
  7. nrgjeff
    ECMWF seems to like a second back piece of energy near/post frontal (Tuesday) even if it's weak. Wobbles between still mainly rain, or a chance of snow I-40 north (and Plateau). Can't see any path for Chattanooga though. My next post will probably be on Monday. Hard to feel anticipation when I've got Chatty near 0% but I'm always happy for members up north (or northwest) who get snow. If this one craps out, the pattern remains cold-ish for several days after fropa with East troughing. For now, have a good weekend!
  8. nrgjeff
    ^ Half joking but could be right on. Late next week winter storm could be interesting in the true Mid-South (MEM/PAH) and a real CAD beast over in the Carolinas. If it even happens, I'm counting on WAA magic in the Valley to get KCHA* above freezing shortly after onset of precip. I hate that when it's snow. Love it when it bails us out of ice! Still a day 8-10 event. GFS is slower than the ECMWF because the GFS gins it up stronger over New Mexico and Texas which slows it. 12Z Euro yesterday had energy from the Southwest but did not really get going until East Texas. Timing differences are not too important this far out. Main theme is NWP shows a chance of a winter storm. Other scenarios include drier cold or a cutter; so, I'm not too excited. Regardless most all scenarios keep Chattanooga mainly rain, which I will always take over ice. If the Mid-South scores I'm hoping sleet and snow; less/no FZRA makes my job easier. I'll leave the Carolina CAD to the Southeast forum. Just keep that crap out of KCHA - unless all levels cold enough for snow. *KCHA typically does warm up as fast as progged, but just CHA. From Athens north, including Maryville and Knoxville, cold tends to hold longer than progged.
  9. nrgjeff
    Temperatures look to trend at or below normal next week (after Mon/Tue) and maybe the following week. The colder shift in the 6-10 day started sneaking in progs a couple days ago. Then the 11-15 day joined in on a second cold front. NWP run-over-run cold gains have stopped, but the pattern looks seasonably cold (or colder) attm. Big AK ridging is a point of strong agreement. Whether the PNA lines up for the Southeast or for the Rockies/Plains remains to be seen. Even the latter would eventually bleed east. The 11-15 day trough looks a little sharper than that of the 6-10 day. The broader 6-10 day might mean less South. The deeper 11-15 day could deliver to lower latitudes, but the PNA will guide trajectory. Texas blue norther fading toward the Southeast, or Midwest hammer direct to Southeast? Tough to know yet. Precipitation is my usual. Probably rain except Plateau and Mountain leftovers. That's progs verbatim. Lots of cutters and post-frontal garbage which won't work out East Tenn. Things could change either direction. Precipitation in the extended.. That seems to work well in February. Sometimes even January. That Feb. Valentines Day snow is legendary, lol!
  10. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weekly charts are pretty benign, no matter what side one favors. The warm weeks 2-3 are already advertised in the ECMWF ensembles. While a loss to the GFS, it's no change within the European guidance. End of December is shown seasonable for the most part. Clusters are all over the place, common for week 4 where accuracy drops. Main takeaway is no endless blowtorch. Euro looks too cold in the Rockies, perhaps its snow feedback issue. Southwest low for two weeks? Doubt that. Early January (weeks 5-6) is so far out of the range of skill for these products that I will withhold comment. Slightly mild but mostly meaningless. Instead will need to watch sub-seasonal drivers which are indeed a mess, as mentioned in previous posts.
  11. nrgjeff
    I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.
  12. nrgjeff
    Yeah the next big cold shot (11-15 day) may dive into the West first. Therefore a Midwest cutter would not surprise me. Note I'm skipping next week and talking 11-15 day. KCMO TV Met Gary Lezak released his public winter forecast. The really good stuff is behind a paywall; but, I can infer plenty from the KC forecast. He's cold and snowy in KC. Unfortunately that is a Plains favorable storm track, which matches much of what has been observed since September. Said primary pattern is cutters, especially bad for southeast Tenn. However a secondary pattern is forecast. He does not discuss it on the public forecast; but, his system has a secondary pattern. That's the colder northwest flow when our region could benefit. Especially true if split flow and a slider or two from Texas through Georgia. I figure all that good stuff is more likely Jan/Feb. Will try not to sweat a mild December. Pun intended? Only if we need AC at Christmas like four years ago, lol!
  13. nrgjeff
    Since I'm a Met I can't really throw rocks at the CDC folks, lol! UT would have beat FSU except those turnovers. I wouldn't worry too much this early in the season. Jax congratulations on the Iron Bowl! That is always fun esp when it's at Auburn. Kansas wins the Maui Jim Invitational. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Finally, jumped on some Cyber Monday ski lift tickets (Snowshoe and WinterPlace WV). Sorry if I cause a permanent SER now.
  14. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you!
  15. nrgjeff
    Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain saw a dusting of snow this morning. Just rain in Chattanooga proper. Anybody surprised? Didn't think so. The only snowflakes I think I'll see this December (East Brainerd area) are the cheesy lights hanging on my house, lol!
  16. nrgjeff
    Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!
  17. nrgjeff
    Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!
  18. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases.
  19. nrgjeff
    GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.
  20. nrgjeff
    I was on my butt with the flu since the weekend. I'll take Dixie Alley severe as SER departs and worry about cold later. Just kidding! Well, not really, but... GFS is probably too fast with the frozen 11-15 day; however, one might use the GFS as the heads-up to start looking for cold on the EPS. The latter wants to dump West first. Anybody surprised there? Euro Op just went colder 6-10 day but the EPS is muted there. The latter still keeps the 11-15 day meh in the Southeast. All that said, I'm starting to buy a possible cold snap later the first week of December. Late 11-15 day forecasts are consistent with building North Pac to AK ridging. By then the West Pac typhoon stuff will have run its course; so, one would think the models could be trusted on such a broad pattern in a more core winter month of Dec. If the MJO does not die, but goes into a colder phase with some strength, that would also help. IOD and Nino favor the colder phases. Cooler (relative to normal) water near Indonesia could mute warmer phases. Might still be early for SSW to help with cold, but if that keeps up the table could be set for later in winter. Bottom line: I favor the slower west-to-east European version. Gets cold in here after December 1.
  21. nrgjeff
    EPS just went colder hour 360. Normally that's banter, but check out the buffet line of teleconnections Carvers mentions just above. Issue has been a raging +WPO (warm) vs everything else cold. If a true +PNA develops (with Hawaii ridge) that could be what breaks toward colder here in the Southeast. -NAO too of course; but, some +PNA could fight off the WPO. Billiard ball meteorology, lol!
  22. nrgjeff
    I missed this thread over the long weekend. Per water vapor and 12Z charts a true short-wave slide through the Deep South below Tennessee. Hence post-frontal snow verified at or above forecast. Chattanooga proper only had flurries - shocker there. Dusting fell up on Signal Mountain. Congrats to all who enjoyed snow, esp if above expectations.
  23. nrgjeff
    Agree with those who do not worry too much about the weekly forecasts. They've been awful past week 3 since the dinosaurs were around. Both have badly missed cold snaps. Rest of November probably will get back closer to normal for Thanksgiving. Works for me and Chattanooga's Holiday on the Landing. December could start out colder than shown. WPO wants to go positive which is a warm signal, but perhaps more consequential for the Plains. Meanwhile the PNA wants to go positive, a cool signal here. Models are clueless and maybe too warm. It's a rare event when I lean colder than NWP, but this might be one of those times. I'm still mild December, but not as warm as those weeklies.
  24. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr.
  25. nrgjeff
    Typically I fade cold chasing rain and post-frontal junk. Chattanooga will whiff; that's easy! However the strength of cold air and lingering moisture may actually squeeze out the dusting Middle and Western Tenn. 2m temps are forecast around freezing, vs just-in-time cold there. Orographic areas (TRI) may see slight snow too. Knox to MRX is a crap shoot. Looking ahead I'm starting to buy the cold balance of November. How does it look for the rest of winter? Last year failed, but we have a key difference this year. GLAAM is going negative this year. It hung up positive last year, then the cold pattern broke down after December. This is is different, but I'm not promising all cold. I'm still a little bearish. However it should be colder than last year. QBO remains positive, but a downward trend would interest me. I'm almost 100% trend (delta) over initial reading. Downward trend would be bullish. NWP flirts with strato warming but I think it's still too early to bank on that. My gut says cold Great Lakes with occasional bleed South. SER may poke back up occasionally. At any rate I survived the time change. I'm getting used to the cold. I'm asking Southeast forum when the NC ski areas open. Attitude adjustment complete. Bring on winter!
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