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Euro doubled down for Sunday this afternoon (12Z Wednesday) with even more turning with height. However it's not all that warm Sunday. GFS continues to insist the WF gets hung up in the Deep South on widespread rain. Either way it's not ideal weather for an egg hunt.

The good the bad and the ugly. Bad first: Tonight looks like an overnight event. The Good: I don't see enough turning (low or upper level) for a big tornado risk. Wind and hail yes, especially from sups. Instability could cause some gorilla hail Midsouth. Yeah we'll have some sups, but turning wind is not that bad. Helicity forecasts are up due to speed shear, but directional is meh. The Ugly: Forecasting an Outbreak Day 5 Sunday. Who knows? Maybe a Gulf Coast MCS will rescue all of us. I mean, it is Easter! Since we can't chase right now, might as well side with the Public and wish against severe.

GFS forgot there's no early season baseball games to snow out, lol! Though the Euro has jumped on. Is that some delayed April fool's joke? Happy Palm Sunday!

It's probably usable NWP, even with some degradation. We been modelling 500 mb for over 50 years. The pattern is obviously quiet upstairs. Chaser be like, fine. Get the garbage pattern over with while we can't go out anyway. No matter what, I'm out of the field through April 30, or later if state level guidance goes longer.

Count me in the weenie group. When that low passed to our south I was about to put a shoe through my TV. Next couple systems look weak and/or positive tilt. That's good to keep severe wx away from the already battered South. GFS and Euro both want to tee up Easter weekend, but it's Day 10. MJO / KWs. are still muddled with two separate areas going. North American modeling will probably be flaky.

TVA has a great article on the rain this year, and compares to last year. Seems Nature's SOP is break a record, and then break it again the next year. 2020 1Q set a 3-month rainfall record. https://www.tva.com/Newsroom/Rain-Rain-Go-Away

SPC goes with a tornado watch that gets to KATL and all of the southern 'burbs. While the LLJ is a little veered, it is bringing in a moist fetch. Also surface winds are really backed on that retreating boundary. Regarding that LLJ, I've noticed southern Georgia can produce while a little veered off. I think most of the Atlanta metro is OK, some morning rain and the atmo should not recover / destabilize enough to get nasty later. South Georgia could have a day though.

Jonesboro tornado trolled all the Illinois and Iowa chasers. Thankfully nobody was killed, but news says some serious injuries. OK we get a break this week. Probably a good thing. Models saw the East trough last week, and it's in progress now. Next week could get active again. Convection is coming out of the Indian Ocean toward Indonesia (maritime sub-continent). Lead by the ECMWF all models are coming around to a West trough. Euro verbatim favors Plains/Midwest. Getting into April it could go north, south and/or both. I don't have any plan to chase anything beyond 2 hours. Dixie just isn't worth the drive, lol.

Thursday night the stars were particularly vivid. I could almost discern the Milky Way from MBY but not quite near the city. Still the peaceful feeling out under the stars was incredible. Figure with reduced pollution in these times the star gazing will be excellent on clear nights.

Gulf will also help severe season along. LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier.

Synoptic WF appears to have made it as far north as I-80/88; however, outflow farther south in central Illinois is obvious on the surface chart (10am Central Time). I figure the rouge cells ahead advertised on some CAMs will go on that OFB. Given how sharp the WF is up north, I'd favor the OFB. Note I have a strong personal bias toward OFB. Still could be chaser's choice. I'm also not in the field today; so, with a virtual chase I can afford to take forecast risks. Still I have to like 1-2 cells east of where the OFB intersects the Pacific front / quasi-DL. Good luck, and be safe!

Late summer drought (perhaps flash repeat) would not shock me. Risk of sooner, but depends on if SER is dirty or clean. Until then pretty wet, yuck!

Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D! Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.

Big changes since Sunday. Instead of Ohio River Valley jungle, we now have an outflow boundary in North Alabama and just south of KCHA. Still plenty of failure modes. A. Rain-out B. Veered off C. Capped (too little too late) D. Combo of 2-3 above E. Rather watch sports reruns Early season is prone to failures, which is of course good for the general public. That said I figure ENH is incoming. Obviously if something is close to KCHA I'll take a look. No chase greater than 2 hours though; so, I won't be visiting the chasable northwest Bama area today.

We got throttled March 2012. I've nothing much on this week. Veered off trash. Only turning is in the Ohio River Valley jungle. Back to NCAA Basketball reruns!

I expect Tuesday will get an Outlook on Saturday morning or soon after. Euro remained consistent if not stronger. LLJ is a touch veered, but not like the last two systems. It's fortunately not backed like Super Tuesday either. Upper level winds are a given. Low level theta E (temps/humidity) will be a question. Even with all those caveats, if the Euro holds, one has to think Tuesday gets a 15%.

Be safe @Calderon and thank you for your service!

A less smug tone is appreciated next time. Thank you. Holston you are a better person than me, lol!

The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season.

Judging by my Twitter feed on Friday, storm chasers are out as usual. They are being careful at gas stations and rest stops. Bringing their own paper towels, wipes and hand sanitizer. Air fare will be cheap to the Plains. Airlines are offering no change fees! Do you know what that means? You don't have to know the exact days when you book. Gasoline is cheap too. Seriously though, I'm not even thinking about travel until we see how this plays out for a few more weeks. Dixie local? No thanks as in any year. Critical Federal Agencies have plans, but I will defer to an NWS Met for more on that. NWS and TV Mets are very dedicated to saving lives in any circumstance.

With an MD in the house you already know, he is perfectly safe to drive home solo (COVID-19 independent of the activity of driving). Bring paper towels with, for restrooms and door handles. Educated guess is Alabama is awaiting test kits. No policy/politics in here, but Bama has finally confirmed at least one as of this writing. Highest Middle Tenn confirmed is in affluent suburbs. Do they have their own test kits independent of the CDC? My guess the risk is equal both places (very low). That said... Informed people I know are practicing social distancing. Work recommends avoiding groups of 10+. I've heard sharply conflicting thoughts from the two MDs I know personally. However the tie was broken when Galen Medical released an article: This is No Snow Day. Galen says don't even let kids play with their friends much. Tough for solo kids w/o siblings. Keep having fun as a single nuclear family unit only. I was thinking, wow really! Galen and Church (online only now) both make the point. We do not act in fear. We act out of love and consideration for others. Elderly and vulnerable need us to collectively stay healthy in order to protect them (much as we can). Medical sector needs us to slow down this thing - spread out the cases - which we know are inevitable. Spread out over several months will be easier to treat than all at once. So we are keeping to ourselves, except to buy perishables. Couple weeks ago we took care of non-perishables for a while. We go out to jog and play soccer or shoot hoops. School is remote by video app. Work in shifts. Probably have several movie marathons and books in our immediate future. It's different, but we'll manage. Keep your faith. And hey, now we are all ready for severe weather season too!

Link between COVID-19 and weather. Storm chasers enjoy cheap air fare to the Plains. No 14 hour drive! Oh wait, the actual storm chasing days. I forgot about that.

In an ever changing World of uncertainty, the European weekly charts offer a dose of stability but not-so Southern Comfort... Warm and Wet! Go figure. In other news KU is ranked #1 with no March Madness. I guess hang the National Championship banner at Allen Field House.

I got distracted watching stocks, lol! But yes, we have a severe weather problem in Tennessee tonight. So the models all have Missouri Boot Heel convection going into Kentucky. All clear? Hell no! Let's do some meteorology. First of all it's not moving northeast. It's moving due east. That'll anchor the boundary farther south than progged. Gee, that never happens. I am hoping the short-wave ejection will push the boundary to the TN/KY border. If not it's in danger of hanging up near I-40. Frankly breaks my heart to type this. Sometimes we science. Sometimes we pray. Anyway, the 850/925 mb charts look more veered than Super Tuesday. Do not expect a repeat. Still, just strong storms disrupt recovery. Psychological damage of just general thunderstorms can't be ignored. Shear will be worse up in Kentucky (or wherever the boundary settles out). Not Super Tuesday, but not a good night either.

Please do. Your local utility will like you. Thoughts are my own, lol! If we can keep air fare low through next winter, I see some Rocky Mountain skiing in the forecast!