nrgjeff
-
Posts
4,194 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nrgjeff
-
NAM cuts and blasts the warm nose. Anyone surprised? Punt that still 60-84 hour fcst. Euro seems too amped too. GFS is too optimistic for snow lovers though. I am afraid the middle ground will verify. In this case the middle ground is bad because it's lots of ice. Personally, I've experienced only two ice storms as bad as what's forecast. One was right in the middle of it 1984. Other was forecasting 2004. A once in 20-year event is possible. Guess what else moved north. Selfish solution for Chattanooga: Punt snow wishes and reel in all rain. However that would be a devastating ice storm for just about all the rest of this Region.
-
Speaking of the NBM, it keeps spitting out crippling ice forecasts. Its snow is robust north of there, but more like a foot than these 18-24 inch forecasts. Ensemble could dampen out the heaviest snow band, so there's upside. Just this ice. wow once in 20 years.
-
Easy to post clickbait out of market. They'd be held accountable in market. Though speaking of model consistency, there was a storm a long time ago modeled a week out.. Even with those much less advanced weather models. March 1993. Let's NOT do that again though, and hell no to the ice version!
-
Models lost the Jan 29 storm. Hints are there around Feb 1. Maybe they'll find that Miller A again. Weeklies look cold most of Feb. -AO is noted but Europe will get a break. Fine, we'll take it over here. Just not ice!
-
Those few hours of 700 mb and 850 mb at/above freezing, but only by a degree or so, spells sleet not freezing rain. Partial thickness charts also show the shenanigans. Fine line between staying sleet, and a half inch of freezing rain. I wonder how amped the NAM will be when it comes in range. Prolly Quebec us. Let's hope the Euro trends colder for snow.
-
Those ice amounts check out with the ol' school divide liquid QPF by 3. It would be devasting. MEM ice probs in Mississippi are 33%+ of a HALF inch which is quite high for Day 5. BNA has high six-inch snow probs. That's what I'd rather see. Model agreement on this promotes such bullish NWS comms.
-
Yup! TVA sent big transmission line crews to help with the distribution system. Some of these models is that, but over a much wider area. I remember Chatty snow a year ago had ice questions, but I think more than one model had the more snow solution. Need to see that Wednesday, Thursday at the latest - or it's game over.
-
Yeah the Valley warm nose in the last 15 years rescues Chattanooga (above freezing) but might ice Knox. This one the cold is too deep. If the mid levels stay warm, Chatty's luck has ended. Then the Upper Plateau has that same risk. Instead of elevation helping with snow, it only adds to the cold vs the Lower Valley. Then both are warm aloft. I would like to see one other model besides the GFS get less ice. For now, weekend concerns continue to mount.
-
I'm trying to keep the faith. I want to think the GFS could score a coup. Until the energy gets onshore, I'm afraid I have to go with the Euro and all that frickin' ice.
-
We need a little help from the Northern stream per the GFS. If Chatty gets that warm nose aloft, without the usual surface push, it's lights out! Dynamic cooling will help those already mostly sleet. No help with the saturated freezing rain soundings. I prefer the GFS for more snow here, but even that's bad for MS/AL.
-
Nah that happened with the +Bz on what could have been the aurora of the half century. Canadian still Quebec 1998s us. Euro isn't as destructive but still a lot of ice. GFS is now getting back into more ice. NWS has the 50/50 odds around I-40 which seems reasonable. Obviously, I'm praying hard for all snow. Yeah the forecast differences are with the two pieces of energy. Does the northern stream block or does the WAA punch through the line? (football metaphor) Southeast Tennessee, we'll definitely take this 12Z GFS. Looks like mostly snow and several inches of it.
-
Looks like most NWS offices are up to near 40% chance of moderate impact - in line with the WPC charts above. Impressive that MRX talks like that Day 6. I have to comment on BAMWX. I've heard they are also into natural gas. If one is eager to buy, gotta jawbone the other way to get sellers. See my signature - cynical as hell. One thing I'm not cynical about - this system is very likely going to stay South. Too much cold. Too much HP. Too much trough aloft.
-
From Twister(s), love it! Could be. Anyway I gotta sign off and wrap up a couple things. Cross our fingers for mostly snow.
-
That Euro has ice in southeast Tenn. But probably most of it is snow that run, after dynamic cooling takes hold. Trouble is verbatim it's a half inch ice first. Then probably 6 inches of snow. oof! Yup, see John below, this is thread worthy. We'll especially need a storm thread if we are also talking about the end of the month in this thread.
-
That's the phased Miller A I refer to a few posts ago. Would be a true bomb! But this 12Z Euro is a combo of that HP anchoring and dynamic cooling (for this weekend). These models are a frickin' buffet line!
-
12Z Euro has a little more dynamic cooling of the column to get the change to snow; but, only after still depositing a bunch of ice. Little steps.. but verbatim it's still trouble. In other news Space Wx Prediction Center has a G4 watch for tonight. While staying up all night watching wx models, don't forget to check the northern sky.
-
Right on the MEM public site, front page not experimental. 50% six days out. That's like SPC dropping a Moderate+ Day 3. I'm not one to get the hype train rolling ahead of Day 3, esp not Day 5, but this one is pretty likely. Despite some path differences all the globals are locked in on a major winter storm in the South.
-
Thank you! Yeah all the WFOs have that experimental graphical hazards. It's so damn clunky I rarely look. Perhaps this is the week I change my behavior. Thanks again @jaxjagman My next goal in life is to reel in 3 inches of snow. Not 3 weeks without power!
-
Yeah I don't see it on NWS Chat or by Email. Are they even public? If they are for EMs they must have a new VIP list that doesn't include me, ha! In other news, end of the Canadian is a full latitude double/triple phase classic Miller A bomb!
-
CMC is goin' Quebec 1998 on us. I doubt it'll happen, but the Euro remains concerning. I prefer GFS runs.
-
18Z Roundup. GFS is a nice moderate snow in a couple pieces of energy. Euro remains a crippling ice storm. No Canadian at 18Z but 12Z was ice. Ensembles just blend out everything. We either have a beautiful snow or a Ukraine winter without power.
-
Well the 12Z EC drops a Quebec ice storm on Mississippi and Alabama next weekend. We have a week for it to change. Otherwise MS / AL grid is gonna look as bad as Ukraine's. Guess we'll take natural causes over a terrorist Holodomor, but still..
-
Wow lots of heavy ice forecasts coming out from NWP but thankfully all well out in the extended. We can't have that crap! They are on different days on different models; some north of here, some right on us. If that happens it'll be a huge slap in the face. Other options range from heavy rain to cold and dry. It's beyond Day 7. Of course we hope for all snow.
-
Sometimes the ECMWF acts like he who shall not be named.
-
Life moves pretty fast. -Ferris Bueller Rain Snow
