nrgjeff

Marginal. Saturday. That's a go! Of course it's garbage weak moisture return and all. However a surface trough and backed winds tracks through (during the daytime - what a novel idea!) Tenn. Could be low top, low probability, but decent visibility. So much for the latter on Thursday, lol! If the 12Z guidance is the same to more robust, Saturday might be a chase day. Um, urr, I mean, go to one of those State Parks that are opening.

Feels like Kansas. Oh wait, here the tornadoes are at night though. Thursday morning was exceptionally windy in KCHA.

That's some tough chasing terrain near the Red River (both sides) 2-4 counties east of I-35. Boundary could lift into OK, but that's the tougher terrain. Texas side offers higher dewpoint fuel and more ag clearings, though again not great. Trouble could be capping in TX but depends on surface heating. Be mindful of Red River crossings. Cell motion might be to the ESE, vs the usual NE. Don't get trapped on the river! If I still lived in DFW I'd be Paris bound this afternoon. Instead I just sit in Dixie and wait to get hit at night. Still salty from Easter.

Re: the Hanks video, I'm amazed the power stayed on. Traffic light appears to be working right after the tornado crossed the power lines; however, we only get a second or two of that before he moves. Later in the video power lines elsewhere are down. He is too close though. Tornadoes can and do rapidly/instantly widen. Bad move there. Moving on, today has a conditional Slight for parts of the Valley and Plateau. Is today Thursday? Anyway new development could be low top, low probability, but high visibility. And in the daytime - what a novel idea around here! Roger Edwards says it best. Here's our section of the 13Z Day 1. Severe potential still exists with a possible second episode, along/ahead of the cold front from the Tennesseee Valley region southward, but is very conditional. Substantial stabilization to near the Gulf Coast is associated with the leading MCS. Only a narrow back door of at least marginally favorable theta-e advection and related airmass recovery will exist to the west, which comes with offsetting influences: 1. Southwesterly near-surface flow ahead of the front will yield the best trajectories for theta-e recovery around the morning MCS outflow, but also contribute to relatively reduced low-level shear and convergence. 2. Any southerly to southeasterly trajectories from the MCS passage will be more convectively stabilized. (no dice there - me) Still, a narrow plume of favorable buoyancy may develop -- with MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg in the north where deep lift, cooling aloft and shear will be greatest, to around 2000 J/kg in the south under weaker ascent and shear. With uncertain coverage, duration and intensity of convection in this regime, the risk level is not as great as farther southeast, and should diminish markedly after dark.

3:35 pm Central cell getting healthy west of CLL. Hopefully keeps south of town CLL/Bryan. Too bad I think it's the wrong side for viewing from the A&M Lab. Nacogdoches cell is a beast. East Texas acting like Dixie.

I like the raised probs for the Carolinas (Day 2 pm). Bama is so conditional and borderline veering off, but GA/SC parts of NC have the backed LLJ. That said I don't see 15% in the cards. CAMs have trended to MCS and/or linear. That does not mean let down one's guard. 10% hatched can include some beasts.

Privileged people die! I'm just messin' with you. Had the same discussion in Chattanooga. Area hit is able to WFH for covid, has insurance for the tor, and otherwise can recover. However, a 4-year old boy succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. As a parent who protects my family, I cannot imagine what the dad is feeling. So, I'm still salty about privilege. Back to weather. I would chase straight north of DFW on I-35, perhaps into southern Oklahoma, but not far. Keep near Red River crossing until final cell selection. Wind might be more backed in southern OK; but, be mindful of that surging boundary from the north.

Yes things will get going east of I-35. West of there is veering off and/or getting undercut by the surging OK boundary. Watch probs 60/40 are actually pretty robust for that box size. Definitely looks like towers are working on a cap. Dews are there; but, will need to heat some more along I-35. Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex. Days like today I miss living in DFW.

Here we go initiation well west of what was shown yesterday - not really a surprise. Winds will be backed east of the surface low. What it lacks in CAPE it has in SRH. For chasers the two targets are a mess. Everyone and their eighth cousin will take a look from OKC into southwest OK. DFW is a mess even when Google maps is green. I want to say chase northwest Texas, and hope that OK chasers can't find a crossing, lol. However that goes both ways too. If I still lived in DFW I'd be rolling up 287.

I will sleep well tonight. Just checked the CAMs, and more important stability forecasts. Then Thursday looks veered off with lots of storms well to our southeast. Honestly I was checking radar and surface too much Sun. Apr. 19 - residual nerves after the April 12 tornado. Tonight/Thursday - like 4/19 - we're not even in Slight. Since I both agree with and trust the SPC forecast, I probably won't check as much this second time after. It's a process - even for a Met. Good thing for all of us on this forum, we have greater than average knowledge of this stuff. I'm not sure if knowledge is power, but it helps. Remember as the great James Spann says, tornadoes are rare.

I'm skeptical of the sig tor index this setup. Winds shear will be high, but the greatest turning will be GA/SC. Speed shear will be over Bama, but not as much turning. CAPE/LI will be high over Bama with clearing; but, the front will be racing into GA/SC. Believe the STI is over-blown, after drilling down the charts. If the short-wave was 12 hours slower, it'd be a bear of a day. Thankfully probably not for our Tennessee Valley. I am honestly worried about Georgia and South Carolina. This human puts the bullseye about a state east of the STP, and with a lower number.

As of 3pm Central the cell south of Houston was getting scraggly on radar. Good it missed/weakened around Angelton. Lake Jackson is south, but close, and Freeport is safely south. Praying it does not cycle and get its act together going into Galveston. South wind not particularly strong could help mitigate another tightening.

Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now. In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min.

Just as well the area is off-limits. Friends and neighbors did a lot of volunteer work and clean-up last week. Now it's shifted to insurance and contractors. I helped on the edge, never really got into the core Gray/Jenkins damage. Saturday I think EPB was re-hanging some lines; so, it was closed. I'm angry and heart-broken to learn of looting. Stick to the positive. Help where we can. Though yard debris clean-up is wrapping up, still many weeks where volunteers and restoration crews can use food and water. YMCA is donation HQ. One can donate $ online if not comfortable going out in covid-19 times. Ditto for the Chattanooga Food Bank and countless go-fund-me pages. We. Are. Chattanooga! Strong!

The only time they are worse than in winter.

My understanding is some of that area has not been surveyed by NWS. I don't believe in guess the EF rating games, but I'd say the preliminary survey is pending further review. Of course we are safe. Got power and Internet back probably about the same time as DWagner - when the EB Rd line was rebuilt and restored. However several friends lost homes. Many friends had minor damage. Thankfully nobody hurt. However I'm heartbroken for the family of the 4-year old who succumbed to injuries in the hospital. Notes: 11:03 pm severe t-storm warning. Hoping rotation dies down, but it increases. 11:17 pm tornado warning radar indicated for here. Take shelter with helmets. Wind is loud behind weather radio walkie-talkie. Radar does not update, no Internet. Power goes out, likely as tornado crosses EB road 1.25 mils to my west. 11:24? Tornado Emergency Collegedale and Ootelwah (northeast of me) as the CC drops to bright blue on radar (I saw later). Winds actually diminish here. Two days later: Lovely orange (in fall) tree is decimated over East Brainerd EB Rd. Bones is a pile of twisted rubble, but not blown away – though a menu is in Cleveland. Several power trucks are working the EB line - rebuilding poles and putting up lines. Episcopal Crucifix stands proudly and defiantly! Small church on Shallowford Rd roof pancaked on downstairs. Shalloword trees are stripped bare. Power lines droop on Banks Rd. Help friends clean-up, document small and large debris. Some 2x4s in the next block. Their block is mainly small (size of hand) pieces of roof, insulation stuck to sides, and some glass in the yard. Screwdriver is from next block neighbor’s tool box. Truck dumps big debris down the street. Next ridge (area closed) is damaged houses as far as the eye can see. Jenkins Rd feels like a prairie country road where police block it; however, I forgot it was a tree-lined residential area. That's all I have for now. Thankfully Sunday looks Deep South. I'm not particularly interested anyway.

Moderate rain moving into Chattanooga. Looking forward to a relaxing stable evening... Just kidding! WF is trying to lift north, but I just can't get excited with my heat pump on while I'm wearing full sweats. Real concerns remain from Mississippi through Alabama and perhaps Georgia though. Warm sector gonna be lit, though very sloppy.

Definitely still keep an eye on it have your weather radio set up. I'm just naturally a cynic. Also Middle Tennessee I don't feel is in as good of shape as here in East Tenn.

Seems somebody forgot about March 2, 2012. Southeast Tennessee got rocked but it's no April 27. My analog is that Enhanced Risk day that busted a few weeks back due to rain. Well at least here in Tenn. Mississippi and Alabama may get lit up, especially Miss. Honestly I'm a little surprised the HRRR is not more amped up. No true line of pearls. That tells you something's up. Sure they could all be wrong, but no pearls on the HRRR. Let's look under the hood. Soundings are not all that thick, even mid-levels. Low level CAPE could really be meager due to the inversion and cool rain. Oh but the parameters! Well, that's how forced QLCS or two gets going. Yeah they could have embedded tornadoes; but, long-track strong? Nah. Winds turning with height remains impressive. However some issues have cropped up, namely short-wave timing. Kissing jets are great, unless they miss (Nickelback song, lol) and subsidence is left. Oh, but the EML? Great, unless it comes in at night. That's not really how Dixie rolls w/o low-level CAPE. So many ways for MDT to bust and be more like ENH. On the other hand, slightly different timing of things (namely that EML) could still go nuts in Mississippi and Alabama. My confidence is growing that East Tennessee only faces wind rather than tornadoes Sunday night.

I miss classic wrestling.

Ahhh the legendary Dixie pre-frontal trough. If it's warm enough that'll be trouble. Tough to discern from even two NAM runs though. Turning with height is impressive through, 45 degrees vs usual Dixie 30 deg. It will be a simple question of instability.

One would think a storm shelter is essential. If any government official thinks otherwise, they should be fired and not allowed to serve ever again. Here's the deal. If 100% of the mobile home residents get coivd-19 a few would become seriously ill and maybe 1-2 would pass away. Well, 100% won't get infected even in a crowded shelter. How about the tornado without shelter? Much much worse! That said the 4/27 propaganda is uncalled for. I knew it'd come, but now I'm surprised coming from some otherwise reliable forecasters. Did we not hear that last year? I remember the High Risk system had like 30 degrees turning from 850/500 mb (nowhere close to the 60 deg. 4/27). Guess what? Last year busted! OK we have a solid 45 degrees of turning progged on Sunday. It's gonna be bad. Probably ends up High Risk. However it's not 4/27 or 1974, period. Pray for the Deep South; but, don't freak out.

They may be right, or rainy pattern recognition could score a huge coup. Praying for the latter.

Yes models are definitely struggling. Lots of WF rain would anchor the WF. However it's a robust neutral/negatively tilted system which can push WFs around. Models keep it cool. Yet their QPF swaths hint beasts moving from southwest to northeast. Note they did that a couple times last year, and it turned out non-severe rain with thunder; so, it's not set. One thing upstairs the turning with height is at or greater than 45 deg. That can sometimes push precipitation off boundary triggers. If it were to close up to say, 30 deg, might have a better shot at a rain-out less severe. I will say that this is no 4/27. That day turning was nearly 90 degrees; and, a true dry line punched through Dixie. It was like a Plains outbreak. Not happening Easter. My bearish lean is for our Region only! Deep South could have a nasty day closer to the Gulf Coast. Still no 4/27, but could be a top 1-2 for just this year 2020 and just the Deep South.

Wednesday night southwest flow apparently washed out any boundary. The veered off onslaught saved us from spinners. Then the 5% East Tenn. Wow it was obvious back around midday Wednesday that's not necessary. Might explain SPC. With all due respect, they've been way too model dependent the last couple seasons. Especially the amped up HRRR.