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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Saw Comet NEOWISE Thursday night through binoculars. Though not naked eye from in town, through binoculars it is a (still pretty) dimmer version of the Sirlin photo. For my just checking (from town) outing I picked US Express. Chattanoogans know their parking lot is elevated with an excellent 180 degree view of the western sky. Gee, why else might I go there? in spring Oh yeah @John1122 and All, look northwest below the Big Dipper an hour after sunset, just as twilight is becoming true dark. That's 9 Central 10 Eastern, and it sets about 10 Central 11 Eastern. Memphis maybe a few minutes later than my rough convert for Nashville and Huntsville. Space and other online mags have details. Weekend plans include getting up on a mountain away from the city. Hoping for maybe unaided eye visible. Either way it'll be even better with binoculars. Still think it will be a naked eye object next week, higher out of the haze and lights. (higher each evening) Anyway this weekend Cherokee NF / Southern Apps could have cloud debris issues from afternoon t-showers. This weekend from Chatty I prefer mountains west of town or even the Cumberland Plateau, but the latter may not be necessary if already west of city lights. Later dates next week the forecast can be re-evaluated. Keep going west of town, or seek elevation in the southern Apps. Depends on t-showers. Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee I recommend getting up on a least a ridge to have a better view of the northwest sky after sunset. West Tennessee, just clear view no lights. MS/AL/KY I'd try to find a ridge. Definitely in northwest Georgia. Everyone have a nice weekend and happy comet hunting!
  2. nrgjeff
    Good to know @EastKnox you've already spotted it this week. I made no true effort Tuesday eve (front yard) and Wednesday evening became cloudy in Chatty right after I wrote this post. I's thinking, please don't let this be another Met starts thread jinx, lol! Atmo better get this haze / cloud crap out if its system before the comet main show in a few days. Halley was my first, and we always remember our first (comet, tornado, eclipse of each type, Aurora, etc). @Stovepipe that's great class met at night. I remember 4th grade watching a partial eclipse during school hours. We made our own shadow boxes, which I used as much in 2017 as the glasses. It's so flat through the glasses, what's the difference? Until totality of course! Coworker / friend / astronomy buff has also seen Comet Neowise. Good to learn of more people seeing it naked eye and binoculars, vs just long exposure photography. My plan is a sneak peak with binoculars tonight (if fair skies) from exburb fairly close - just see the fuzzball. We will go farther rural this weekend with family for hopefully unaided eye viewing and/or tail through binoculars. Next week you'd think with a 591+ ridge skies will be fair. Maybe heat haze, but fewer t-showers and associated cloud debris. More nights the better! Those expectations are managed. I'm prepared for Halley 2.0, but hoping for something closer to Hyakutake (still no Hale-Bopp). Cautiously optimistic it'll be a real treat this weekend and next week, higher in the darker sky.
  3. nrgjeff
    Comet NEOWISE has over-achieved its morning show the last 10-14 days. Yes all caps is the acronym of the NASA program which found it. Comet switches to the evening sky this week. Like the morning show, the evening encore this week is low in the sky and in some twilight. However, the weekend and/or next week could be a grand finale higher in the sky. Comet will come closest to Earth July 23; it's already swung around the sun without breaking up. Wow, good news is actually possible in 2020! It's unlikely to fall apart now; but, it gassing and dust will gradually slow down as it gets farther away from the sun. However it will be getting closer to Earth; so, apparent brightness should be maintained. Plus it'll get above twilight by the weekend into early next week, making it even easier to view. Those could be great viewing days! I remember the Halley meh in the mid-1980s, but they knew it was not going to be great. Then the late 1990s brought Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp, two comet gems! Comet NEOWISE should be somewhere in between. A surprise outgassing could get closer to Hyakutake, but I can't see a Hale-Bopp miracle. At any rate I think NEOWISE deserves a thread! Started the thread here since I don't find one in main Weather Disco. We can talk night sky forecasts. I may take a shot in the exburbs with binoculars tonight Wednesday, because the sky is so clear. Thu/Fri might be scattered t-shower debris. Weekend looks solid. Likely will go all out to a rural location with binoculars and maybe scope. Then maybe a few more times next week. Make it cout!
  4. nrgjeff
    Next week I sure hope we don't get a short-wave SER stuck under a GL trough; that would be real heat! Though prone to happen this time of year, happy to report I don't believe it'll happen. If the ridge settles into the Southern Plains, there is heat risk for Memphis and West Tenn. If the ridge is Central Plains or otherwise northwest of our Region, the door is open for easterly waves below the soft underbelly. Oh it'd be humid, but still not intense heat. Plus scattered thundershowers. All those scenarios are more valid East Tenn.
  5. nrgjeff
    Thank you @PowellVolz for the recon. That's great we also stayed at Bearfoot on the golf course, though I don't golf in summer there. It's nice rentals and near good restaurants. Not quite as touristy as the heart of MB. South Carolina was smart to put in that express way so one can get to other parts of MB quickly. We'd probably go to the Gulf Coast in fall. Always playing games with the tropics that time of year. However I love the weather. It's not as hot. Sun is lower so less sunburn. Still warm enough and the ocean is plenty warm. Years past fall is not as crowded as summer. We'll see if everyone else is thinking the same thing. Only trouble is fall is past spout season. I'll pass on tropical. Just give me general thunderstorms, lol!
  6. nrgjeff
    BOHICA! That's a scientific term for July gonna July. If you believe that, I have some beachfront property in Kansas. Welp. Maybe we can get it over with during the climo core of summer, and actually have a fall. Must. Think. Positive. It'll probably drag into August. July and August correlate fairly well, especially the steady heat like is forecast. Real peaky stuff can fade out in Aug. Doubt this year. Don't see 100 degree highs with the ridge centered northwest of here. Do see consistent steady 90s about half of which might be 95s (not including TYS, MRX). Good time to be in TRI, lol! Don't get me started on the humidity. I know I say this every year, but isn't this bad even for the South? I mean we're not Deep South / Gulf Coast. Dews should east off the mid-70s to more like upper 60s (afternoons) when the heat gets going. Still low 70s mornings. Closing on a bright note. Sunday! July 12. Can we get enough turning with height? I know that's serious weenie wishing for NW flow in July. Need something to hold onto right now.
  7. nrgjeff
    I think that was trying @PowellVolz from the clouds. Spouts go on shear lines, not really sups as you know. You bet I'm always checking at the beach, lol! Another take-away here, looks like beaches are not too crowded. My odds of taking the family later this year just increased. Thanks both also @EastKnox for some ground truth. Both took excellent pictures too! I love a good storm after my beach time. IMPORTANT UPDATE: Chattanooga FC will be on the CW Saturday night. Believe that's just in Chatty but maybe some other CWs will carry it. No fans at Finley, but we got soccer again!!
  8. nrgjeff
    Nice picture! Is she your daughter? Precious! It's funny I never know where in life forum members are. I've a daughter who loves the outdoors. She's a bit older, is every bit the explorer too!
  9. nrgjeff
    I was hoping for just 2-3 weeks of harsh summer, but I should know better in developing Nina. Euro weeklies just cued up some Bananarama Cruel Summer. CFS was mild late July but I'm afraid that is too good to be true. Truth may end up in between. This +ABNA pattern wants to hammer the Great Lakes and Canada. Puts us on the soft underbelly of the ridge. Not too hot, but humid as all hell. Next week may shed light. Euro has been consistently intense. Record CDDs (not high temps) but national CDDs on mainly low temps and solid consistent heat. If that heat falters (like a couple previous attempts) carry on status quo. If that heat comes in, we could have a cruel July both South and North. I'm not sure if I'd like a break in August at the expense of possible September, or just get it over with core of summer. Come late August the answer would be clear, lol core summer option in the rear view mirror. Oh well it's summer in the South. We caught some breaks up to this point. Might as well get it over with. Only 6-7 weeks of really bad climo.
  10. nrgjeff
    I like it! All hail the guts to put out detailed thoughts months ahead. Agree December is probably the best shot at sustained BN temps, along with bookend weeks of Novie and January. ABNA index is another consideration. Keep a warm North and our source is wrecked. True Alaska / Yukon may be colder, but it'd have to traverse a warm southern Canada. If the Northern US lacks snowcover, modification kills the cold airmass. La Nina influences may show more later in winter late January and February. Yeah a SER would be a drag. I'm OK if it's sunny - better than cloudy and mild. Perhaps by November or early December we'll know a secondary pattern - and hope it is one that interrupts the SER. European monthlies are on fire January. Good grief! Glad it's the last month and pretty much zero correlation with actual wx.
  11. nrgjeff
    Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada. The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along. This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid. East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend!
  12. nrgjeff
    KCHA dewpoint is 75. Spaceballs scale is Humid, Gross, Ridiculous, and Ludicrous. Today is Ludicrous. How many days until Halloween? Takes that long to cool off these days. Weekend does look nice though! MORE: So thankful for the second Plains trough behind Cristobal; otherwise, we'd be stuck with these dewpoints a while. Instead it'll be pretty reasonable for about a week. I don't even care we missed out on severe with the front. Thankful the dews are coming down!
  13. nrgjeff
    According to TVA social media, new trails are open at South Holston Reservoir. It is a new multi-use trail system. Weekend should dry out but it'll be hot!
  14. nrgjeff
    The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino.
  15. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter.
  16. nrgjeff
    And with AAM sinking, textbook would be SER. However that looks disrupted by yet another closed low. Who cares if it's tropical or not? Same old same old 2020. Still looks hot over our region though. And an unseasonably deep trough from the Rockies into the Plains gets wasted again if all those progs are right. This could have been a bonkers year, but almost doesn't count.
  17. nrgjeff
    They do mention the Tennessee Valley twice, or on two days. We'll see. Ohio Valley could get it too. Everything is pretty unidirectional upstairs, but there is flow for wind or hail. I was looking back at the May 31, 1985 outbreak in Ohio, Penn, and NY State. They had just a little turning from WNW 500 mb to WSW 850 mb. Intriguing. That's not in the cards this week. However I will keep it in mind balance of June north of here.
  18. nrgjeff
    Oak Ridge had AN rain in May. Seems TYS just got left out. Otherwise it has been quite wet in East Tenn. I think we are finally entering a more typical summer pattern. Next front looks like a stall rather than pass. Nice and humid by then too.
  19. nrgjeff
    The wet has been nuts. A THIRD in a row record rainfall year is within reach in some spots. Rainfall needs to be .4" above normal each of the months the rest of the year. That is not yet a high probability outcome. However a tropical cyclone could nearly clinch it - barring a severe flash drought. NUTS!
  20. nrgjeff
    Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado. Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation.
  21. nrgjeff
    Today has an enticing surface set-up. Looks at upper air charts and forecasts. Unidirectional. Pukes up breakfast!
  22. nrgjeff
    NASA and Space-X like the least diurnally favorable time of day for June in Florida. I know other non-weather factors go into the launch window, including the ISS position. Still, it's so 2020. Eventually they will launch between thundershowers. It'll be so exciting. I remember in 1981 watching Space Shuttle Columbia, after a couple delays. Parents were so excited to get back into Space after a 5 year hiatus since Skylab. Now we experience it after an even longer 9 year hiatus. And stupid Putin can stop with his silly trampoline comments. Hey Vlad, who's been to the Moon?
  23. nrgjeff
    I agree with CLL if anything. Cells northwest are in a fresh environment, but lower dews and veered surface winds. CLL is backed and humid in the South Texas tradition. If that beast does not break up a bit it'll be low visibility along the line. When all else fails, the view from the Texas A&M Weather Lab is good.
  24. nrgjeff
    Oh I forgot about early terminating El Nino. Hope springs eternal Upper Midwest, this year! Oh my that Texas hail would have been terrifying, coming through the roof and ceiling.
  25. nrgjeff
    I have a lake in my back yard. Welp. At least I have my own wetlands preserve with social distancing, lol!
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