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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Yes another tornado reported near Oxford, Miss this morning. Had an MD before 7am Central, even though low watch probs. Still we're getting started early and often. 13Z SPC talking possible ENH upgrade for tornadoes. Paraphrase: Inland decay phase can be the more prolific tornado day. Wind fields spread out into better CAPE environment. Set up does remind me of the Harvey tornado I documented in northwest Alabama. Well it almost documented me, ha.Y'all it's Free for all Friday!
  2. nrgjeff
    European weekly charts are beautiful. Looks like we need to get through next week. I favor warmer ensemble clusters that slow down the front. Either way I'm in agreement with good times after Labor Day. End of ensembles shows AK ridging. Weeklies both show Midwest to Ohio Valley trough. We take!
  3. nrgjeff
    Right front will be the main show overnight. Arkansas has truly rain-wrapped tornado warnings in a shield of rain. Also think leading edge of the rain is going into higher CAPE in western Mississippi. Friday right front quad may remain so, but it's way up over Kentucky. When Laura gets more hybrid, could be sups straight east or even southeast with those convergence lines in more CAPE.
  4. nrgjeff
    Friday slight risk is justified. Laura will start to assume hybrid characteristics regardless of the depression designation. Appears the 500 mb winds will be veered compared to 850 mb, more turning than a pure tropical system. A 200 mb jet streak will be over North Georgia and southeast Tenn. However the best overall features appear northern Middle Tenn. Two convergence lines are shown on all guidance, CAMs and globals. One pushes out toward the I-65 by midday with another coming out of West Tenn mid afternoon. I think the back one will have more CAPE with which to work. Front one may run into an even farther east feature, morning rain East Tenn. Focusing on the back convergence line, it appears to intersect even more backed winds around Clarksville mid-afternoon. Calling that the hybrid quasi triple point, east-southeast of the surface low. Should be great convergence and excellent turning there. However CAPE will be greater, with still good turning, Nashville south. While this reads like a severe wx post, well it is, I will post in the Laura thread.
  5. nrgjeff
    Don't worry about that Euro chart. Use regular old surface wind progs. Believe it or not they are pretty good inland. I figure that Euro peak wind product is for individual strong/severe storm cells, based on CAPE and column water content. It's definitely not the circulation. Thanks @Carvers Gap for the keenly props, but I probably got lucky. I'm definitely thankful July was peak summer vs August. Hello @mempho I certainly have inland Laura impacts in mind. I'm a sucker for Dixie Alley when tropical depressions bring low level shear well inland. More on that in the severe thread if I get time to write anything coherent. East moving remnant low will promote storm cell motion slightly right of the mean low level flow Friday. hmmm
  6. nrgjeff
    Iceman: Tired of summer. Switching to fall. I do like the last few posts on the summer thread. EPS is indeed pushing a cool front through the Midwest to the Mid South. Can we get it all the way through? Probably so in some form. Looks a little hot and humid until we can get these tropical cyclones pushed out. Laura going west is going to behave like a warm front, especially in August. Midwest system next week may not quite be enough to scour out the airmass. However the 11-15 day period looks a little more encouraging. European weeklies are quite friendly to a moderating temperatures forecast. Looks at or below normal through about week 3. Gets us past mid-September before any aboves. By then slight above is fine, esp if not too humid. Except for late August heat, I will try to remember to post mainly in the Fall thread. Cue up some Ce Ce Peniston. Finally!
  7. nrgjeff
    Three years ago today we were eclipsing! No social distance. Gathered in big happy groups. Got blown away by Nature. Happy reflections! At least this year we had Comet Neowise, a minor but nice concession. Have a good weekend!
  8. nrgjeff
    European weeklies want to end summer right on time. Looks like seasonably hot the end of August, in line with both Ensembles. Then the ECMWF weeklies follow the CFS at or below normal temps the first half of Sept. Such an evolution is reasonable with current MJO and ABNA expectations. Also active tropics and precip. To celebrate I should probably post this in the fall thread, but I also talk about tropics. Maybe next time!
  9. nrgjeff
    Yes the end of the 11-15 day (both ensembles) and the 16-20 day (ECMWF weeklies) hint at some heat end of August beginning of September. See if it can reel into the 6-10 day, but I'm OK if it doesn't, haha! CFS does not echo the heat. After Labor Day September looks fairly benign on the heat front. It's supposed to be so, but we know how the last few years went. Tropical cyclones may impact temps either way too. Speaking of that, I cannot promise benign in the tropics. Starting in late August this MJO pulse might light up the Atlantic into early Sept. Gulf storms tend to behave like warm fronts for the South (outside of rain). East Coast storms can bring some heat relief back side, esp in Sept.
  10. nrgjeff
    Apparently the FF guidance is low there. WPC has flood risk. On the bright side somewhat fall-ish weather is on deck after the front. Watching the Perseid(s) the other night (only one, lol) I noticed Orion coming up in the East. Orion is of course a staple of the winter evening sky. He's like, hold on, fall and winter are on the way! Hopefully more snow will grace the Mountains this winter, though it'll be a chore with La Nina. Ski areas need our support more than ever. I'd say if not bar hopping at night, it's safe to ski/ride bundled up with face coverings anyway. Get take-out to support restaurants. Never too early to think ahead, lol!
  11. nrgjeff
    Looks like relatively nicer weather much of next week. Take the temps down a bit and dews will get into the 60s a couple days, nice compared to 90s/70s. However dews may be back late next week with precip. Following week temps and dews look seasonable. No complaints I suppose as we count down to Sept. Euro weeklies aren't bad. They reflect the slightly lower temps next week; and, try to stretch it into the following week. Ensembles are normal in the 11-15 day, so I think seasonable unless a ton of precip. Outer weeks 3-4 show slightly warmer than normal, but normal temps will be falling. Verbatim that's not new heat.
  12. nrgjeff
    European weeklies continue to keep the heat ridge focus elsewhere, though it'll be seasonably hot here. First the Asia Bering sea North America ABNA index has shifted from positive to negative, with little net effect for the Valley. Asian side the ridge dropped from eastern Siberia / Mongolia / North China into South China. Over here the Great Lakes southeast Canada heat is forecast to shift more Plains, Texas and Southwest. Latter is already hot. Appears we in the Valley may luck out if the Great Lakes ridge does not drop into a SER. China may have a SER, lol. Southwest US and Texas appear to be the destination here. European weeklies take the hand-off from the ECMWF ensembles with the Southwest US ridge and some extension into the Upper Midwest. Gives opportunity for weak fronts and more moderate humidity, but not really as cool as the 12Z ensemble depicted. Even when the Northeast US gets it at times, seems to go up and over us. That'll leave it humid though. ABNA and European weeklies have somewhat similar themes. Cautiously optimistic after early this week intense heat (Mid South more than East Valley) will give way to more normal-ish August heat. With any luck no more big heat waves. However continue summer theme of steady hot.
  13. nrgjeff
    European monthlies are on fire through the end. Literally it's every single month. Obviously that's wrong. I'd expect a cold month, or perhaps split in a couple two week periods, this winter. Otherwise, yeah I'm thinking pretty warm based on persistence and La Nina introducing a January thaw that goes straight through February.
  14. nrgjeff
    European weeklies came out and are not quite as hot as the Monday issue. They basically sharpened up the North ridge. Too bad for them! Leaves us down South near normal vs the slight above. So far I guess that's encouraging... Unless the road through fall has that North ridge settling into a SER in Sept/Oct. It does not necessarily have to go that way. The North ridge could just crumble as summer ends. Fingers crossed. Keep that crap out of here, haha!
  15. nrgjeff
    Wow 3/4 days the East Brainerd bubble is broken. Hey @dwagner88 no watering this week, lol!
  16. nrgjeff
    European weeklies just went hot again. Core heat is still North. Color me skeptical of four hot weeks here. Let's try two again, like July, otherwise North. I'd like to think if we pay our dues in July and August we get football weather on time. However I think we all know the odds. Probably stay pretty warm Sept.
  17. nrgjeff
    Oh wow that's beautiful! We hiked a short stretch of the Cumberland Trail with rock houses and water in which to wade. Oh but I miss the Rockies! Would love to go out there when the Aspens are glowing - never been that time. Maybe pull a fall Plains trip with Aspens on the down days. I don't know.
  18. nrgjeff
    Regrettably it looks like more of a heavy rain and flooding event. Disgusting boundary been parked here since Comet Neowise got good. Ugh! Boundary disappointment 1.0 was the Comet. Boundary disappointment 2.0 will be wasting decent flow aloft for early August severe. Rant! On a brighter note, the heat will ease up. CFS is probably too cold, but the ECMWF ensembles and weeklies agree with less intense heat here. +ABNA signal continues to look hot for Canada and the Great Lakes. US Southeast soft spot does line up with the Korea trough @jaxjagman noted earlier. Then up North both Eastern Siberia and Eastern Canada have AN temps. +ABNA has been consistent most of summer so I think it adds credibility to the forecast. The two weeks of heat here was hopefully just a tempo ridge expansion. Now we go back to the more traditional +ABNA. Hotter model runs run the risk of device advection. Thursday evening edit: Euro weeklies once again favor the downshift heat for the South. Canada is warm. US West is hot. Looks like a classic climate change signal. So the year we finally have football weather, will we have football?
  19. nrgjeff
    Sunday night weather cooperated so went up Lookout Mountain again. Comet has faded a bit, despite great visibility clear air, perhaps competing with moonlight. Tail appears shorter through binoculars, and it's a struggle unaided eye. Still fun to see our inner solar system visitor. Delicate beauty remains inspiring. Monday we'd intended to see the comet again as afternoon thunderstorm debris cleared by evening. Ooops! New mid-level clouds developed ahead of the trough in the western sky. However the Moon, Jupiter and Saturn were ripe for viewing in the excellent visibility air south and east. Didn't even see the usual wobbles in the 'scope (summer instability) so it was grand. Atmo probably was stabilized and overturned by previous t-showers. Just my daughter and I out back (usually front) so no sharing with the neighbors kids, haha. My plan: comet. God's Plan: planets. Often the spontaneous is the most blessed time. We take! Likely my last comet pictures are below. They are Sunday from Lookout Mountain. I've yet to venture into telescope photography. I will probably still check on Comet Neowise clear nights through the week; but, we said our goodbye Monday right before the cloud. This has been a fun 10-14 days (3 weeks if morning). Next, meteor shower tonight if clear. Comet gets high enough for the Big Dipper combo pic. Tree branch points the way. Try a 'scope?
  20. nrgjeff
    Fingers of Death! Stranger Things! Nah I see that often when storms approach ridges. I think it's the extra lift in a humid airmass, added condensation. Harmless but very neat to film. They move.
  21. nrgjeff
    Oh I know. The one week we have a great comet, a stationary front parks over Tenn. It's not really the polar front, but it is one stubborn boundary. This is the one week of the year I don't want a boundary. I just keep reminding myself the weather was perfect for the Big One, the total solar eclipse back in August 2017. Possible from Chattanooga to Knoxville west clears out this Saturday evening after some good thunderstorms already overturned the Atmo. No new development. Don't read my lips there., haha. Western sky from Plateau might even salvage this evening but that is a tougher proposition than CHA/TYS. Plateau elevation plus it's less overturned yet. Then I-65 west looks less buoyant on satellite, but need that to hold. I'm cautiously optimistic that spots where several thunderstorms went early (enough to overturn the atmo) the evening may be stable with decreasing clouds. Areas with later thunderstorms of course run more risk of lingering clouds. Would be nice to get a weekend night with the comet, to enjoy it w/o thinking about work the next day.
  22. nrgjeff
    Nothing wrong with that comet! Answer to fading panic on Twitter. Moon light will become an issue in a few days, but the comet will be visible through the weekend and likely early next week. Could even go later next week. Moon will then back away again later days, but the moon will also be brighter. Comet will slowly fade, but it has not faded discernibly attm. Picture below has more light pollution because Thursday evening I had to compromise on target. Clouds encroached on Chattanooga and my preferred Lookout / Signal Mountains. Instead dropped into North Georgia between ridges. Still the sky was darker than in town but not as dark as at elevation. Good visibility helped make up for not being on a mountain. Comet Neowise and Milky Way are below. Just think if the comet was overhead like Hyakutake was in 1996. No, I appreciate Neowise. When adjusting for the lighter sky, I think the comet still looks like it did early in the week. No concerns through the weekend, except weather LOL.
  23. nrgjeff
    I also read some astronomy Twitter panic over dimming. Is that real, or are they as neurotic as us weather folks? Hobbies are similar so probably, lol! It's definitely dimming in space, releasing less dust and gas farther from the sun. At the same time it's approaching Earth (though not very much so) which would help all else equal (it's not if less dust/gas). Maybe it appears slightly dimming after netting out the effects; maybe it really dropped off. I don't know because I have been clouded out the last two nights (Tue/Wed). Oh but today Thursday in far southeast Tennessee and North Alabama the sky is a deep blue! Could that help? Thank you TD 8 subsidence and pulling in that clear tropical air. I will be dropping south along rural Lookout Mountain tonight. Barring a cloud debacle I'll find out about that dimming. Thunderstorms continue to hold just north of Chattanooga and it appears it'll remain so into evening before they dissipate. Cloud debris is also pushing away from me. Just need to avoid any tall debris southern Middle Tennessee to my northwest. Boundaries remain that way. HSV to MSL should be safe though a boundary is on the Tenn/Bama border. MEM might even clear out. The rest of I-40/81 looks tough BNA, TYS, MRX, TRI. But cloud cover miracles can happen. How about the sky between the clouds. Deep blue up that way too? Here are my pictures from Sunday and Monday evenings. They are not epic comet shots, but meant to preserve approximately what we saw naked eye and binoculars. Fun with trees and cloud, then the closer one. Happy my child found it fine on the family outing, and loves it! Sunday was just-in-time clearing, why one has to gamble sometimes. Monday was fair but not as good visibility. That's why I like to try any good visibility day clouds are less than 30%. You never know!
  24. nrgjeff
    Euro weeklies just (finally) followed the CFS cooler in the weeks ahead. Temps look near normal in our Region. Verbatim it's slight below western half Mid South and slight above East and Apps. Nationally (and internationally Canada) core AN anomalies shift back north, which lines up with the forecast +ABNA, driven by the forecast MJO. It's been persistent in the Indian Ocean promoting +ABNA. So, maybe, this was our big heat wave for the summer. Still got weeks to go; we are still in the South. However teleconnections support the downshift next week perhaps being a pattern shift beyond just a break in the stronger heat. Again it's still normal and it's still July and August. Just not nuts.
  25. nrgjeff
    Family joined me for Comet Neowise viewing Sunday evening from a rural dark sky spot Lookout Mountain, GA. Believe it's a little bit better than Halley 1986, but not as good as Hyakutake 1996. While far from Hale-Bopp 1997, Neowise is a good comet. I am hoping Neowise improves to closer to Hyakutake quality. Halley < Neowise < Hyakutake < Hale-Bopp IIRC. Right now Neowise is closer to Halley, but I am cautiously optimistic it gets closer to Hyakutake. Probably remains in between; I figure Hale Bopp is pretty unreachable. If Neowise improves past the half-way point between Halley and Hyakutake, we got a big winner! Sky forecast is for southeast Tenn. May be valid for southern Middle Tenn, North Bama, and West Tenn. BNA to TYS MRX TRI may differ. Sunday featured just-in-time JIT clearing following afternoon thundershowers. Monday should JIT clear in the evening. Might go right back up Lookout Mountain. Two work nights in a row means next morning drink more coffee! Tuesday JIT clearing is more suspect. Wed/Thu look pretty cloudy, but things can change with summer pop-up t-shower and debris forecasting. Comet is closest to Earth Thursday; but, I think any improvement will last through the weekend. Should still be good next week through the end of July. Comet gets higher in the sky each evening; therefore, above horizon haze and light. Hoping for more JIT clearing this weekend, with sleep in the mornings! Meteoblue https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/map/precipitation/united-states has a basic cloud cover forecast if you don't already have a preferred model site. It is GFS based though. If you already have a favorite cloud site, probably use what's familiar. Binoculars work in town, including tail, but it's low contrast. Rural dark sky one can see it unaided eye an hour after sunset, northwest sky below Big Dipper. Rural binoculars it is a gorgeous sight. Nucleus jumps out. Tail is delicate and beautiful. One can imagine the comet racing through the solar system. Gonna rank this must-see this year. My no 2020 storm chase is of no concern anymore. Comet in fact rescues 2020 from its overall debacle. I'm comet catching multiple nights the rest of the month!
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