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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Yes! We love our West Tennessee members too. I'm still recovering from the KC Chiefs ugly win last night. Well a W is a W, lol! Finally, listened to Tennessee Christmas by Amy Grant. Wishing for snow that does not happen. Intelligent song writing. Very accurate in Chattanooga.
  2. nrgjeff
    I see the PV bending but not breaking. Then it tightens up again in an act of defiance. Pretty dismal forecast tbh. When's the next chance of severe weather?
  3. nrgjeff
    Monday morning a little wave digs in for the Upper Plateau and perhaps northeast Tenn. Only relevant at elevation. It's post-frontal so Sunday night clouds are not a huge factor. Still the boundary layer will be too warm in the Valley Monday. Curious to see if anyone documents anything Monday. Unfortunately I have nothing positive to say about days 3-15. I'll go with, if I don't have anything nice to say I won't say anything at all. Good luck Monday!
  4. nrgjeff
    European monthlies and CFS monthlies just out are both disasters for snow enthusiasts. Tie it in with the latest discussion in our ENSO thread; and, it looks like a mild winter which will require some luck. What's new in the South? I still think the +ABNA phase will offer chances (normal to BN heights SE with above normal heights parts of Canada). Key will be some help from the PNA, NAO or other blocking. Overall though it now looks like cold shots will be brief. I know this is a sentiment shift from my last post in the main December thread. Also tied in with our ENSO thread, severe wx in late winter and early spring looks at least normal with a good chance of greater than normal activity. EC monthlies have Plains season (LOL 5-6 month forecast verbatim) quieter than normal; CFS is normal. So I guess chase early season garbage in case there's no late season. Why am I writing about chasing already? Oh yeah the winter monthlies and SSTs.
  5. nrgjeff
    First, I always approve of severe wx jawboning messages, lol. ECMWF weeklies do warm up the back half of December. MJO over the Maritime Continent is southwest flow aloft if a shortwave and airmass can come together. Still a few weeks off so I've nothing to add there. Speaking of the MJO it is weak. However I always prefer it in cold phases than warm, no matter the strength. While the plot is Maritime Continent, the West Pac tries to flare up too. Explains how we're getting this couple weeks of cool volatility instead of blast furnace. Looking way ahead in years with La Nina atmospheric response and -GLAMM which is all forecast the next few weeks, the warm back half of December does not necessarily have to last. Some of those years with a cold start to December, and warm finish, went on to get cold again in January. About half the years went cold January. Now, if this late December warm busts, and it just stays cold, that's not bad either. Talking snow perspective here. My gut says this winter will be more interesting than that last few, with more bouts of snow. Confidence is increasing in the La Nina with -GLAMM response. That's variable vs locked in SER, but we will have warm days. Should get occasional cold air delivery. Cheers!
  6. nrgjeff
    Fun! Anybody flying into Knoxville today?
  7. nrgjeff
    Took last week off and totally checked out. I'm so far behind in this thread that it's hopeless. However I guess that's a good thing if the pattern is worth discussing. ECMWF weeklies followed the CFS with now a third cold week, counting this week, week 2 and week 3. Now we are in -ABNA with some +PNA which is cold. MJO is in a decent phase. While we have a week TC attempt near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, the vast majority of convection is in colder phases of the West Pac.
  8. nrgjeff
    Awesome pictures this page! My November 30 ob is not worthy of the thread. At 3:55 pm Eastern snow flurries reached East Brainerd, Chattannoga, Tenn. So light it looks less like snow, and more like the Upside Down from Stranger Things.
  9. nrgjeff
    Euro ensembles came around last night. Majority of members have a closed low in the 11-15 day. Weenie mode activated! ! 11-15 day forecasts are disputed and often change. Prepare for disappointment!
  10. nrgjeff
    Well hello there ECMWF weeklies! And I see you CFS weeklies. Can they be right? Well if the MJO actually progresses, it would be supportive going into cooler phases (Southeast US). Multi-month +ABNA background is slightly below normal heights here, but AN everything Canada. A cooler version of that (progged normal heights Great Lakes) would verify cold down here. Both weekly products have that colder look weeks 3-4. AN precip East Coast with BN precip Mid South is not a bad look. Remember snow carries lower liquid content. That AN precip can stay southeast of here as rain. No promises. It just feels nice to write about something other than blowtorch or covid. BONUS: CFS weekly snow charts get the Mid South week 3 or 4 depending on which presentation. PATTERN recognition is good for the higher elevations too (Mountains, Plateau). Then Christmas severe verbatim. ! week 5-6 forecasts are disputed.
  11. nrgjeff
    IIRC my first winter here, November was mild until it got cold after Thanksgiving, and culminated with a good January snow. Oh yeah White Christmas too 2010 before that January 2011 snow. Past performance will not help future results, lol! Oh crap April 2011. Nope! Even me the severe wx enthusiast. Nope! OK getting serious, since this is the true December thread, I figure it'll take a few cold fronts to set the table for anything after mid-December. Except for at elevation, I doubt much happens through first third of December.
  12. nrgjeff
    Eric Webb tees up 38 and rain for Chattanooga! Friday was our kid's last day in class. We pulled to online learning between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Data is pretty clear. Pattern recognition for the forecast is also. I'm mainly talking about the Chattanooga forecast, lol!
  13. nrgjeff
    Ensembles all followed cooler overnight. Euro, GFS, Canadian. I don't look at the teleconnections weekends. More on Monday. Fingers crossed!
  14. nrgjeff
    I agree the window for cold (rain Chattanooga) will be brief. Looking after Thanksgiving. The pre-Thanksgiving system should be warm. I'm not buying severe though. Post-Thanksgiving system is cooler but lacks a cold air connection. Maybe the higher elevations. By then I'll be focused on college basketball. Finally! Looking into early December I see nothing interesting. Even if it's not as warm as shown, the +ABNA won't quit.
  15. nrgjeff
    The Bering Sea giveth and taketh. If we keep a longer wavelength and +ABNA the Bering Sea trough is actually bearish. Above normal heights and temps northeast China and Canada. Mild much of Eastern China and the Eastern USA. Sorry I'm so bearish today. I do agree with some back door front action after Thanksgiving. Helps northeast Tenn. You know my forecast for KCHA, lol!
  16. nrgjeff
    Unfortunately the Wall St. Journal does not offer a comparison to Mt. Pinatubo 1992 which was the last aerosol event to actually impact temperatures. Carry on with much above normal temps this winter. Strato vortex is really locked up tight.
  17. nrgjeff
    I share some of Fred's thoughts and concerns above. However I'm hoping it's not wall-to-wall severe. While I love a good Pains chase, I really don't like this crap in Dixie - especially trying to shelter my family at 1am. The pattern Fred describes is my secondary pattern for the winter and spring outlook. Trough comes through the Plains. Depending on the lingering SER severe weather would be favored in Hoosier Alley, Dixie Alley, or both. He covers the hemispheric situation. I'm talking the synoptic troughs. We saw this at times in October, but without much incident. Same deal in late winter or early spring would be impactful. Fortunately my primary pattern is the current one, influenced by the stubborn +ABNA. Warm northeast China. Trough Aleutians, Bering Sea, sometimes GOA. AN heights and temps much of eastern Canada. AN stuff bleeds into Great Lakes USA. Leaves the Southeast near normal heights. Temps would be above, but no big systems or low-amp troughs with moisture. Could be low-amp cloudy drink more coffee days. I'm one of the severe wx enthusiasts here, but I also got a family here and know we have some members who hate severe wx. While I do agree spring will be active, I have no reason to forecast anything historic. To quote Spann, severe wx is normal and we'll get through it.
  18. nrgjeff
    Agree with Holston above. Nothing encouraging here https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml where I check for pressure and heights. Arctic is locked up. All weekly products are a blowtorch as well. Eh, I'll take sunny at any temperature.
  19. nrgjeff
    Let's go a head and issue a Slight Risk for Grumpy Bunch of Posters. Upside is Moderate but maybe we can still salvage basketball. Actually the ensembles are Enhanced Risk already. Cancelled the cold, other than brief fronts with near seasonable cold. Guess just go with the weeklies.
  20. nrgjeff
    Welcome @BrookeM and enjoy the forum. We have a Garden thread. Can anybody help with the irrigation question above? All I know how to do is kill plants with my brown thumb, lol! In true banter, I lament the KC Chiefs are once again not on TV here. On the bright side their defense can't give me a fourth quarter heart attack on TV.
  21. nrgjeff
    Welcome @Blue Moon and jump right in! This sub-form Tennessee Valley of American Weather is one of my favorite places for weather discussion.
  22. nrgjeff
    1. The post Thanksgiving cold looks brief now. Combo of MJO and NWP. 2. The solar flare means go to Alaska and chase the Aurora. Single flare doesn't mean much more. 3. If we go into split flow after Thanksgiving it could be cloudy. Please no!
  23. nrgjeff
    Numerical models are trying to go colder after Thanksgiving. This is after the seasonable front next week. I'm talking 16-30 day hints with the MJO. MJO is going to be fickle for a few days though. Tropical Cyclones are active and or forecast in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. TCs typically create volatility in MJO forecasts.
  24. nrgjeff
    Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications. I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news. Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job. 2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads.
  25. nrgjeff
    Canada has above normal precip. If it's snow then it's a decent North American signal. However the Asian side sux blowtorch just like here.
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