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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    I'll leave Thursday to the SPC. I agree with them; and, it's way to far for me to even consider chasing. Overnight LA/MS is kind of a punt too. Friday forecast has shifted south and east. Looks like a cool wedge coming in from the Carolinas into North Georgia. At the same time, low level flow may hold up more than previous forecast out to the SC Coast and for southeast NC. Atlanta is on the north edge of Marginal, with very conditional instability. Best chance of instability is South Carolina below Columbia. That's way out of my range for a daytrip. Macon to Albany, Georgia is another possibility with some breaks in the trees. However construction on I-75 south of ATL makes it a hard pass. That construction is sooo annoying! New Year's looks like watching football and during commercial breaks, severe wx from my nice warm living room.
  2. nrgjeff
    Dixie Holiday Special is coming up. I like the Day 3. System has really slowed down. It'll be a Louisiana and South Mississippi problem, perhaps overnight. Storms should get going in eastern Texas and enter southern Alabama by the end of the period. LLJ will increase with time Thursday night. Oh goodie for LA/MS. Friday Day 4 looks to refire or be ongoing in Georgia and the Carolinas. Could start in the southern Appalachians, before ramping up in the afternoon and lower elevations east. Piedmont gets involved. SPC rightly ends the action before the Low Country as upper dynamics will be ejecting away. However the LLJ hangs in through Friday afternoon. None of this is chase worthy imo. However it'll make nice armchair entertainment during commercial breaks of football games.
  3. nrgjeff
    I'm starting to like the Martin Luther King Day period for a colder pattern. Well I'm wishing. Can't say I like it as a forecast yet. As Anthony notes North America has to hurry up and wait on the Strato warming and -AO. Right now Western Europe and China are cold due to blocking in the North Atlantic and also northeast of Scandinavia. Central Asia ridging helped promote that record surface high in Mongolia (Hoth, lol). Read a paper about the effects of SSW. Old news is that it can cause cold in eastern North America, Western Europe, and eastern Asia (one, two or three of the areas). However the North America failures are not new. Actually we have little correlation with the time of max Strato warming or -AO. Western Europe has the most correlation with blocking cold. East Asia is second, and lower. North America is barely significant at all. This is AO not NAO. Same study shows Alaska block has the higher correlation for North America. Not a surprise! We've been talking about that here. Though even I was a little intrigued just how poorly AO and even SSW correlate for North America - just not a big tool. The required Alaska ridge can happen 30 days following the North Pole true -AO. There is your North America lag. So North America lag might not be truly accurate. We need to wait for the AK ridge, whether by retrograde, Pacific forcing, or some other method.
  4. nrgjeff
    I'm not sure about the Carolina side, but southeast Tennessee was somewhat locked in a couple days prior. That's pretty good for Southeast modeling. From 2-4 inches was forecast around here and verified Christmas morning - mostly during daylight hours. Points north and east got more, and like the Carolinas the forecast probably ebbed and flowed. I think I recall that deal. Chatty got blanked in 2020 while northeast Tennessee got the second white Christmas in 10 years. Probably be another 30 around here. From 1969 to 2010 was 41 years.
  5. nrgjeff
    When the winter wx forecast goes to the dogs, there's only one question to ask. Though I acknowledge winter hope on Sunday in places.. When's the next chance of severe weather? Thursday night looks interesting, especially in the Deep South. The slower more amped, and perhaps cutting solutions, from the EC and NAM could get southeast Tennessee in play overnight. What a way to ring in the New Year! From the bathroom or closet? Regrettably it does not look like a chase scenario attm. First of all it's the shortest daylight of the year. Second, it looks to get going after dark. The just right 700 mb temp may check early junk; however, it also delays the main show. That'd be much more interesting in March or April. Third, it's relying on a developing LLJ a bit east of the best upper dynamics. Finally, the usual, it's Dixie Alley. All that said the wind fields are impressive. At first glance the 500-200 mb charts look a little meridional. However 850/925 is properly backed relative to those. 700 mb is just right temps for this time of year, and correct vectors. Surface temps/dews look to be there, again because 700 mb Ts hold off an early rain-out. The heavy rain advertised comes with the main system later. Bottom line: Chattanooga, North Alabama and North Georgia could ring in the New Year with overnight fireworks. Why not?
  6. nrgjeff
    That went to the dogs in a hurry. 3 of the last 4 times I've posed bullish hope the last couple seasons it's gone mild within 36 hours. Jinx is real. Maybe after Martin Luther King Day. Hopefully then it's not maybe Feb. Then maybe Valentines Day. Then maybe next year. Some past set-ups where Greenland blocking was in conflict with Pacific mild going into early January, Europe and Asia got more cold dumps than North America. When North America starts out fairly mild it's tough. We'll see though. Time will tell.
  7. nrgjeff
    Nice timing! Strato Warming has apparently ingested into the just released ECMWF weekly charts. I approve that message! Greenland block remains stout for 3-4 weeks. Some ridging West Coast. North Pac trough is more Bering sea than Alaska, a bullish shift for here. Surface Deep South is blue. Tennessee Valley and Mid South is variable. However these next four weeks are the core of January. We take! I'll be off for a few days. Merry Christmas!
  8. nrgjeff
    Observed sleet in East Brainerd, Chattanooga about 2:45 pm Eastern. Hopefully that's not the end of winter precip imby.
  9. nrgjeff
    It's been 84 years. Oh sorry that's the Titanic. It's been 10 years. Upper Plateau, Mountains, likely Tri Cities down to Morristown look to change over to snow Christmas Eve. There's some energy progged behind the front. Behind is the key word for KCHA, zip! I don't know about Nashville or Knoxville; but, the latter probably has better odds than the former. Both are in the game though. For those in the game a 10-year return ain't bad. Was is over 40 from 1969 to 2010? But for Chattanooga we are 10 of 84 years until the next White Christmas, lol!
  10. nrgjeff
    My condolences, seriously from another big basketball school. Cal will get that ship righted during conference play. See you (Kentucky) in the tournament. That's going back to when Kansas lost to Topeka YMCA, arguably our biggest debacle. Regarding Tennessee football.. Who cares? Tennessee is a basketball school now! Lol @tnweathernut it's the Upside Down or something from Stranger Things. It's the most wonderful time of the year. College basketball season!
  11. nrgjeff
    Nice @Holston_River_Rambler I never get tired of the winter sky. So many stars and nebulae. All remember Jupiter and Saturn conjunction is Monday. They will be close from now until a few days after. Lit!
  12. nrgjeff
    Following up on the record TVA rainfall... Christmas looks like cold chasing rain! What's new around here? Could be worse. At least Christmas should be sunny on northwest flow. Cynical negativity aside, variability may continue into January. Looks like even if New Years warms up, another shot of cold is likely the following work week. Key is to keep getting cold shots deeper into January and hope something lines up. I share Carver's cautious pessimism, but there's still hope. It's early.
  13. nrgjeff
    NAM and ARW have that brief 32 degrees up there in Sequatchie county higher elevations. However the ARW-V2 ICON and hi-res EC do not. I'll side with the latter three. Regardless I figure the NAM version is still a non-event; just too brief. Unlike northeast Tennessee, southeast Tennessee micro-climates are less likely to produce. We don't get any bleed over of Carolina / Virginia CAD - not even at elevation. Oh y'all everything could be worse. Folks down in Chile for a TSE. Narrow cloudy area banked up on the mountains is also the totality path. Sunny lee side Argentina does not allow tourists attm. So 2020!
  14. nrgjeff
    If the snow misses, remember it could always be worse... Your football team could throw a cleat and blow it's chance at the college playoff. Florida had LSU stopped, but the penalty. Still just wow!
  15. nrgjeff
    It was quiet between 2015 and 2019. Easter Sunday night was enough for me in town. East Tennessee is really not the bullseye. Chattanooga very much reminds me of Kansas City that way. It's close, but the real action is to the southwest. Chattanooga:Huntsville :: KC:Wichita. Then BHM/JAN = OKC/OUN. Knoxville is even less active than Chatty. Heart of Dixie Alley is a fairly easy drive from here; so, my interest is sustained.
  16. nrgjeff

    Welcome!

    nrgjeff replied to Mr Bob's topic in Tennessee Valley

    This is by far my favorite place to talk Tennessee, Mid South and Dixie Alley weather, both snow and severe. Our Region is the best and that ranking includes AmWx and any other one out there. Celebrate seven years! We'll go 70 years!
  17. nrgjeff
    Sorry Judah those are bird farts. Continue jostled but tight strato PV. We'll have to hope for -AO in the troposphere. Sorry I'm in Cynic Mode. There is still hope for after Christmas into early January. While NWP keeps losing sharp cold waves, it's also losing blowtorch days. Variable can get the job done in January.
  18. nrgjeff
    Tonight and midweek systems still have some promise at higher elevations like the Plateau and Mountains. Perhaps even an upward surprise there. Lower elevations look too warm despite 850 Ts. Thickness and surface forecasts are not there. Looking to the New Year models (ensembles and weeklies) all seem to be trending colder at the very end of December. We'll see if it holds. Failure modes include Alaska or Greenland. About a third of the member have both blocked, which is of course bullish.
  19. nrgjeff
    Yeah looks like rain now. Too cool for severe. Too warm for snow at lower elevations. And clooouuudyyy, yuck! Do Belize or Aruba take American tourists right now?
  20. nrgjeff
    LOL Carvers! When gas traders starting talking about the MJO, money is about to be lost. First the bad news. Boundary layer BL remains a disaster at lower elevations. Just too warm. Good news is the -NAO is pretty consistent. A little retrograde would get the job done for higher elevations like the Plateau and Mountains. Agree with @tnweathernut above a weak Miller A is better, esp this warm BL environment. At least higher elevations could get it. This isn't November or late Feb. Looks like a decent pattern for late December into the New Year.
  21. nrgjeff
    Interesting evolution after Christmas from the ECMWF weekly charts just out. Trough lumbers from the Plains into the Southeast. Will that be heavy rain, severe, or both? If severe probably Deep South or Gulf Coast. End of December isn't really our severe climo. FREE for all Friday update: GFS keeps jawboning severe Christmas week, including proper dewpoints Deep South. Jawboning is my other way of conceding it's still fantasyland. We'll see.
  22. nrgjeff
    Plateau and Mountains could have a fun 7-10 day period. GFS finally came around to King Euro with actual systems instead of weak fronts. No cold air connection and warm boundary layer keeps most of the forum out of the game. Rain and 38 is good college sports on TV weather, lol! Looking ahead, I'll just assume the EC weeklies will trend colder after Christmas like the CFS has. On the other hand the GEFS weekly product (separate from the CFS) keeps it warm. Anyway the CFS after Christmas forecast is colder than normal. We'll see if the blocking can overwhelm the on-fire MJO signal. My sentiment has shifted to mixed, from bearish, but I'm still not really feeling big cold.
  23. nrgjeff
    Another chance tonight. Note it's around 10% and only on the horizon from a very high viewing point. Looks like the pre-dawn kind of busted. Twitter is gnashing of teeth now. Canadian border got it, but the main CME is arriving later than first forecast. Arrival is now forecast during the late afternoon today. Could linger into early evening. So, get out in time for first total darkness. Comet NEOWISE style. Oh yeah, up on Clingman's Dome would be great to have a 10% chance of seeing anything. I doubt anything is visible from most of our forum area.
  24. nrgjeff
    Agree the next 2-4 weeks will have cold fronts and wx systems. Weeklies show a trough in the GoA but significant Greenland ridging. That's not stable SER material, though I agree the volatility probably averages out mild. Weeks 5-6 lose the blocking; and, go with a more stable SER situation. However weeks 5-6 are subject are subject to dispute.
  25. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I approve that message. Since winter is going to the dogs, might as well look to spring.
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