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Resurgent La Nina tends to be nearly as bullish as +TNI for severe. If they both happen, even I might get tired of severe weather. Nah!

Glad to see literally dozens of new faces on the Forum. Helps to get snow in Memphis and the entire Mid-South, North Alabama and Middle Tennessee including Nashville. Chattanooga had sleet toward 10 pm Wed. Feb. 17. Light sleet continued mixed with light rain I'm guessing until around Midnight (back-cast not direct ob) perhaps as late as 3am. Enough was left in the morning to be observed on some roofs, the grill and deck. Not an impressive observation, especially since KCHA was above freezing for most of the event, but figured I'd log it for posterity. New members, please stick around.

Wow I did not realize that. Especially the Rupp stats. Kentucky, Kansas and Duke are all in a world of hurt this year. Blue bloods are bleeding out, lol! At least you got snow up there. Congrats!

Wow that's an impressive collection of Tennessee gear from model planes to a car! Hope is alive and well with the basketball program. Vols are my Final Four team. I don't see Kansas past the first weekend. Meanwhile the KC Chiefs lose and the weather systems keep cutting. One year ago with the Chattanooga Saturday snow and the Chiefs win. What a difference a year makes. Guess look forward to Tennessee in March and severe weather in April.

ICON model gets the Upper Plateau with accumulation too. It'll be cold enough at the surface all models. Thickness is low enough all models. See what the afternoon package says about the Plateau. Nashville unfortunately is victim of the stubborn boundary layer, but could still pull off sticking snow if a heavier bust. Issue is easterly wind downslope off the Plateau and some partial thickness issues which reflect the problem. A slightly stronger comma head would overcome for at least a dusting Nashville. Knoxville faces the dreaded warm Valley boundary layer early; but relative to Nashville, may have more time in QPF while cold enough. Not thinking much for Chattanooga though. (Thanks John trying to help though, lol.) On a positive, I think I like the system for northeast Tennessee into Virginia, and of course the Mountains. Maybe MRX yes TRI. Will have some Valley warm nose (partial thickness) issues mid-system, but should end cold with accumulating snow.

Thank you @Uncle Nasty for the reports around town (Chattanooga). Dusting stuck in East Brainerd shortly after dawn, but it's gone. Sadly I missed the snowburst due to a work call and helping prep kid for school. Just been light snow showers or flurries since then. I didn't bother with a photo. Dusting was only some grass, some roofs and metal. Less than a complete covering. Dalton, GA did better per Shocker0 pic. Also looks like Bradley Co. (Colhutta TN) south of Cleveland, Tenn. got around an inch near the TN/GA border per LSR. PS. For y'all at elevation and/or northeast, yes a little more is forecast tonight with another (weaker) wave in the flow.

Good point. I ask if as much snow as the Christmas event. Due to temps this should be more impactful either way. Plus it's not a holiday. Cancel school! Wait it's already at home. Still this is going to be more trouble due to the cold temps.

Monday and Tuesday snow event is going to be very interesting, even just vicariously through Plateau and northeast reports. Mountains gonna get hammered. Snowfall map above respects the terrain because this is a classic NWFS event. Stiff NW wind will leverage upslope areas but downslope shadows will be sharp. JC will do a lot better than Kingsport. Maybe next synoptic system? I'd still have some sticking in Knoxville, even if not accumulating much. Oak Ridge is unfortunately a little more in the Plateau lee snow shadow, but should see flakes. Don't ask about Chattanooga, please lol! The forecast soundings really intriguing to me. Deep cold nearly saturated air is forecast low levels and mid-levels through Monday, much of it a prime DGZ too. In fact up to 500 mph is moist early Monday. Moisture is less deep Monday night, but that's plenty for the mountains to get pounded and Plateau / Virginia to keep snowing. The DGZ is a little lower than typical in the sounding, which is actually favorable in this orographic event. Could it beat Christmas some areas? Like storm chasers talk about ground scraping mesos, looks like a ground scraping DGZ is forecast. Have fun!

Next couple snow chances are covered well above and previous page. I refer to Monday/Tuesday and again sometime late next weekend or early next week, favored areas only - not here in southeast Tenn. In between Thu/Fri looks mostly rain. I'll post about Mon/Tue Feb. 1-2 in its Obs thread shortly. Figured I'd add some good news on the teleconnection and MJO front for the 10-20 day. First the MJO convection is actually making a move toward the dateline. Couple days ago there was chatter the convection might not follow the Kelvin Wave, which would be such a slap in the face. Still not guaranteed this moderate La Nina; however, it's looking better on satellite. Convection is also north of the equator which is more encouraging than just south (where it can whiff). So fingers crossed on friendly MJO progression. Global wind is also elevated, which is opposite the typical La Nina signal. Helps a little with the convection evolution. Also +global wind in February is cold around here (one of the few winter months it's not mild). Might be why the SER forecast thankfully struggles in the 11-15 day. Global background state is more friendly for snow here. Now we need a region wide system. Can we be clutch or do we choke? I'm hoping February clutch time baby!

It's the weekend! Well, it's that weekend the SEC Big 12 Challenge. Saturday Tennessee hosts Kansas at 6pm Eastern. Should be a good game. I predict Tennessee wins at home. Enjoy! In other news the KC Chiefs are in the Superbowl. Analog last year has a bowling ball snow event in southeast Tennessee, oh one can dream of both victories!

The flashes of lightning and the sounds of thunder Monday evening were particularly sweet! I feel like last thunder was early this fall, creating a longer than usual wait. Also... First thunder after the new year is always nice; but, I felt extra content this year. Almost a feeling of peace, tbh. Why those descriptions? It has been a trying ten and a half months so far with the pandemic, damaging tornadoes* and not chasing much last year. Lightning and thunder felt like a preview of a possibly (hopefully likely) more normal spring and summer. *While I'm interested in severe, high impact tornadoes are a turn-off. I'm hoping spring 2021 offers safe chase days in Dixie, and a Plains season later. For some thunder Monday brought snow Wednesday! Does that count? Anyway we are flexible on severe wx. Birmingham tornado was late and nobody was watching. By morning Twitter had it. Then TLH is Southeast. If it's not middle of the night we'll talk about North Alabama, most of Mississippi and southern Kentucky. Huntsville and Muscle Shoals, AL are definitely Tennessee Valley. We sometimes go as far west as the Delta and south as Birmingham.

We occasionally discuss severe as far south as Birmingham over in the Tennessee Valley region. We also discuss Mississippi sometimes as far south as Jackson. Tenn Valley region on this forum is more broad than the literal river valley. Typically we leave Atlanta to this Southeast region, but we'll talk North Georgia in the Tennessee Valley region since it's right up on southeast Tenn. Atlanta has enough members to typically generate discussion here in Southeast. Huntsville and Muscle Shoals, AL are discussed well in Tennessee Valley, for those North Alabama severe days. Rest of Alabama and Mississippi kind of depends on where the center of the threat is forecast. Safe but exciting spring to all!

Well that was interesting. First John is right the tail end was mostly under radar. Interesting system had a deep DGZ (dendrite growth zone, on sounding) which was closer to the ground late. Speaking of that rich DGZ, it was ideal across Kentucky and northwest Tenn. Sounding was nearly saturated at temps between -10 and -20 from around 700 mb up through 500 mb IIRC; I just remember it was rich. Didn't look too hard since Chatty was out, but I quickly double checked after seeing those half-dollar flakes out west. 850/700 mb were the cold side but still ideal. 500 mb was that -23C maximum production temp. It was a textbook DGZ beautiful... Until what started out looking like an over-achiever outran the low level cold air. Low level CAA had surprised me into Nashville. Of course it could not make it over the Plateau. Of course downslope was fierce in the Great Valley. DGZ followed the wave aloft, but was wasted on a warm boundary layer. Oh Kingsport, welcome to Chattanooga pain! I'm guessing Johnson City on the other side did a little better overnight, unless moisture departed too quickly. Any JC reports? MRX discussion says it well. So the CAA was great west of the Plateau but pressure rises (wind direction too) hurt east. So it's always a zero sum game in the South? Be nice to get a region wide win.

I bet the skiing today is electric! Note there's no lightning this afternoon so it's safe to make silly puns - plus ski and ride. Support our local ski areas if you can. Original video is previous page. Thundersnow rocks!

The warm sector had entered Middle Tennessee. January thunder is nice, especially if February snow follows it, haha. Figure they'll keep the Marginal. Instability is there, though modest. Despite some warm air in the sounding, there's SRH and low LCLs - Dixie Alley things, lol!

Yes the WPO is there by Day 10. Still have a Western US trough though. Actually I trust Day 10 a lot more than Day 14. Anyway we'll look for progression WPO to EPO and get that west trough over here into Feb. Might be after the 5th of Feb. Fingers crossed.

1. Late week snow looks like a Plateau to Northeast Tennessee special, with the Mountains too, most of it post frontal. Of course that is a non-starter southern Tenn. 2. Per satellite, MJO is trying to nudge into colder phase 7, but it's a fine line because phase 6 becomes less cold late January and mild in February. Then some EPS members trying to go phase 8 by Day 14, which would firmly settle the issue - huge iff there at the end of the forecast period. 3. Atlantic side blocking and occasional Scandinavia ridging continues, delivering cold to Europe. Alaska ridge is still AWOL for at least 10 days with a trough West. Some ensembles hint at the trough moving east toward Day 14, replaced with AN heights West. That's the unreliable end of the forecast though. 4. Still had that strato warming about a month ago now. Statistical correlation is highest Europe, second highest Asia, and actually pretty low North America. However NA can get a delayed reaction, causation is debatable though in a blocky environment anyway.

Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic. A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining.

Planet pre-observation for Friday night: Uranus should be visible through binoculars or telescope just to the lower left (mainly lower) of Mars. Couple nights ago Uranus would have been easy to find between Mars and the Moon, but of course it was cloudy. Moon has moved. Planets are a little slower compared to the Moon. One should be able to find Uranus lower slightly left of Mars, about 7'clock that's direction from Mars (orange or reddish). Well the time might work too, just make sure it's dark. Uranus is not visible without magnification. This wasn't worth a thread, but it's more than banter. It will soon be an observation. Should be valid Friday and Saturday night. Sunday night looks cloudy. Have a good weekend! UPDATE regrettably it was cloudy Saturday and Sunday. Friday Uranus was hard to discern from stars using binoculars; however, Uranus is a small blue disk through a telescope. Nothing like the other planets, but obviously a planet vs a point of light star. AHEAD I would think Uranus will stay near Mars for a few days. Honestly it's easier to use a programmable telescope. Will attempt Andromeda again. Usually it's obvious in a 'scope but I don't think I was lined up right Friday. All of the above are pretty high in the sky early evening.

While I can remember some New Years thunder, it's usually after Martin Luther King Day. Well, here we are! Funny we say that about both snow and thunder. Well, both require a decent system so there's the link. Monday Jan. 25 looks interesting but no concerns; also, it's still several days out. Couple things look more like spring than winter. Upper level winds are forecast WSW with the wave vs some big ol' teardrop SSW wind. Also allows a just right 700 mb temp forecast, but that's too detailed seven days out. Still the 700 mb forecast is probably why models don't break out a Gulf Coast MCS. All that's subject to change. Climo sure says so. Another reason the Deep South may have little convection is wave timing. Again seven days is too early. Of course there's two waves forecast. Early wave would have subsidence behind it. Also the LLJ could get veered off that way. All these problems sound more like early season climo. Such a LLJ from the moist sector would support heavy rain on the warm front and or in the Mid South though. Bottom line: I have little concern about severe weather next week - except heavy rain. However I'd rather talk about thunderstorms than the winter pattern right now.

Looks like most of it will be snow showery, with occasional squalls. Forecast in two waves mainly Friday night and Sunday night, with an in between lighter chance Saturday night. The latter two may have timing shifts or even flip flop intensities. Such is modeling in fast cyclonic flow. Also any daytime hours over the weekend (when not in subsidence between waves) could pop snow showers. Looks light for Nashville, kind of the west side of these snow showers - yet still in the zone. I have doubts about Chattanooga mainly due to downslope. Might be cold enough nights, but still fighting drying wind off the Plateau - not a good flow for snow making over into southeast Tenn. Even when snow makes it up and over elsewhere - hello Knoxville. Also looks good MRX to TRI. Of course the Plateau will get magic! Could be productive in the Mountains too.

Deep -AO can't even help Tennessee. Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi yes. Spain definitely. Tennessee going like our football. I have not commented on the last two systems due to work and online school crazy. However I root for y'all in the zones. News is much brighter in basketball land! Vols and Jayhawks have both bounced back with 1-2 wins including Saturday. Tennessee is so energetic both sides of the ball. We meet in a couple weeks!

Track issues aside, I'm encouraged to see Chattanooga thickness 540 or below when or shortly after precipitation starts with both systems. In January (vs March BL questions) 540 ought to be cold enough. That's only good news farther north and west along I-40 (BNA, MEM?) and especially northeast. It's tricky in Huntsville. What's new for HSV and CHA? Appears that cold air tries to get in place before both systems. Big upper ridge in eastern Canada helps deliver the surface highs. Then there are 50/50 lows; honestly, I hate that expression. 50/50 is worthless in a mild stormy pattern. However next week proper ridging is forecast in eastern Canada. Also for a wider swath of snow we need that Western US ridge to verify; and, not let any energy sneak through the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies. Diving down the Plains and sliding across the Deep South is what we seek. Southern stream energy caused the Georgia tornadoes. Though the synoptic low went through the Midwest, southern stream energy and trough did Georgia. Now, do it with cold in place. Past performance blah blah blah. Main takeaway: I always like 540 thickness. The old fashioned method is sweet news to me - esp mid-winter.

Saturday I felt multiple disturbances in the College Basketball Force. Tennessee lost in Knoxville to Alabama. Vols let your hearts not be troubled. A January loss can promote excellence later in the season. Lack of home fans likely takes away some home court advantage. A much bigger debacle unfolded in Lawrence, Kan. Texas destroyed KU by 25 points! That's a bit more than a January home loss. I know they're both ranked; but, that's a stunning and colossal failure in Allen Field House. Cancelation of the tournament last season stings deeper today. Welp. There is good news when Tennessee hosts Kansas. At least we both can't lose that day, lol!

Middle Tennessee is ever so slightly more active than West Tenn. East Tennessee was historically less active than the other two; however, that may change (is changing) with recent trends and shifts. My conclusion on Mid vs West is based on historical tornado tracks, not really a map of the Alley. Those tracks have been floating around Twitter and other sites. North Alabama max bleeds north into Middle Tenn.