nrgjeff

Every weekly product has been a debacle for about a month now. I would not worry about the upcoming 7-10 days. Huge Mid South Ridge is probably drier than even a SER; however, it looks transient. Return to +GLAAM would punt that ridge as forecast. Might stubbornly linger as SER, but eventually get beat down. If we repeat last year, with highest 500 mb anomalies North summer, the door opens here on the soft underbelly of such a ridge. Fire hose is off, but I think normal rain in June. Perhaps most of summer. Should I water now? Probably. On the other hand May heat is not like July heat. Might let the lawn endure some tough love. Shrubs remain in excellent shape.

I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged. Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town. Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

Right about when KC Chiefs drafts solidified our offensive line, that blocking also went up into the -NAO. NFL Draft teleconnection? Weather is complex. Tropical forcing failed. NAO won. However the risk was always there, with a rising (now verified) GLAAM forecast. S* happens in weather. Tropical forcing will have another try starting about May 15. It's weather. We'll see. However Mets are tired of Monday morning QBs who never attempted a forecast. It's understood that any hype past 7 days is just jawboning, not a real forecast. Positive vibes to all the chase-cationers!

Yes it is. Anyway looks like East Tennessee is in the clear. Nice and stable.

Well, if the Bama boundary lifts north this afternoon... Cullman!

6:21 AM Central Time, Tuesday May 4

Another beautiful spring overnight in Dixie Alley! Figured it would run into stable air in Alabama. I'm impressed it got that far north and east to Tupelo. In April instability return often under-performs. In May it can over-perform. I'm not impressed with the low level jet today or Tuesday; however, it's May. Finally we need a Twitter poll. Cullman, AL. Yazoo, MS. Moore, OK. All three could be an answer too.

Plains storm chasers will take an order of that KW and MJO. Don't worry about it @Blue Moon minor scuffles are a part of Internet weather boards. We've had far more positive interactions than otherwise. Do keep posting. I forgot you're relatively new. We include all here.

Monday and Tuesday the low levels will be veered off; so, the tornado threat is fairly low. 2-5% is reasonable. Don't expect them to raise it. Waste of CAPE I know. However I'd watch for hail. Of course straight line winds are on the table too both days. Honestly though my mind is out in the Plains the following week.

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers. However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

SPC has moved the 15% forward for a Slight Risk on Sunday. I like their use of pattern recognition. ECMWF is more bullish (ENH material). GFS is slop (Marginal verbatim). Sothern stream wave in early May certainly calls for Slight Risk. For those on the forum who get anxious about severe, I'm not at all worried about a big tornado day. Looks like straight wind mostly. However in early May we can't take a few tornadoes off the table.

Chances are the second will be easier. I'm hearing it's one or the other, not both. What brand did you receive? I got Moderna and have been fully vaccinated for a week. First was uneventful, just a sore arm. Second was actually less sore. However I was so sleepy the next day. Still retained moderate energy though. No headache, other than mild I need coffee on a cloudy day. No chills. No fever. No problem! Sleepy but with energy, in my case, is defined as taking a cat nap and then going jogging.

That mini-sup Wednesday. Something about slight risks, with stationary fronts, in northern Middle Tenn. Fortunately this one did not get out of hand!

Hey @Blue Moon this is a seasonal thread. ENSO discussions are for the 3-18 month range. We all knew La Nina would fade. Everything is going exactly as we have foreseen. Read more and post less, Sport.

Second year La Nina usually is not worse than first, and that didn't make a difference last year. Plus if the GLAAM wants to favor positive we get enough rain. No concerns. Believe climate change has significantly altered ENSO signals.

What? Active pattern tees up.

Love the MRX write-up. Includes interviews with both MRX and SPC Mets about what was going through their minds forecasting it. Wow! Alabama has a good page too, a joint effort from HSV and BMX. https://04272011-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/ includes video Memoriam for those lost.

That SREF is a lot more interesting than I expected. Thought the NAM and HRRR are overdone, and they may be. ARWs show potential, but messy, which seems most reasonable. SREF apparently sides with the more bullish suite. Meteorological target: Talladega National Forest. Yeah I'll stay home and arm chair that terrain!

I'll go warmer than normal. Oh wait normals change. Resurgent La Nina. Blowtorch!

ECMWF is somewhat on board too. Possible the trough is filling and lifting north at the time, leaving only modest kinematics over the South. We will have instability, but will we have the dynamics? Naturally I wish I was in the Plains for these next 2-3 systems. Soon. Very soon.

Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air. GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go!

GFS 11-15 day does have a low-amplitude trough come through the South, which is a favored pattern in late April. Huge full-latitude troughs are always over-rated. Particularly by late April, low amplitude can be high impact. I know some members are not fond of severe wx. That far out we're just jawboning. Don't worry about it. Just something for enthusiasts to track. Also regarding Plateau LCL and CIN @PowellVolz those are right and probably as important as the low level wind speed.

Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. @John1122 very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel! I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days. I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley. NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.

If we don't get a +TNI we get resurgent La Nina. Sounds like it's either bullish severe, or bullish severe. Trend sure is active both Plains and South.

Yes the HRRR started keying in on that at the 15Z run. Appears that a north-south line of convergence ran from Corinth, Miss into Tenn. Intersected with outflow boundary. When the HRRR at 15Z matched my conceptual model (March 27 thread) I immediately departed. Had packed car. Memphis buddies met me in Corinth. Then we gave chase. Also in the March 27 thread.