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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    We might be able to get that to work courtesy of the ABNA however the wavelength is a little squirrelly like you note. This is the European weekly composite of weeks 5-6. Historically those weeks offer zero forecast value but it's fun to look! It's not far from the coldest group of historical years. Again, just garbage. Should I move this to banter? There is the China tie-in so will put it here.
  2. nrgjeff
    Come on down to Chattanooga. Always warmer here. Mountains surrounding the city are colorful up to 2,000 FT. By the weekend 2K+ will be past peak. Lower elevations look to tee up nicely again this year. Have not been to the Plateau which is usually cooler than even Lookout Mountain. Going to guess Lower Plateau great color 1,000 to 1,500 FT and maybe through the weekend. If we can just get decent weekend weather.
  3. nrgjeff
    Lovely day in Chattanooga with temps in the 60s. This is a blessing on days like today. I'll be whining about it when we are rain and 38, while y'all are snow.
  4. nrgjeff
    Here's the Ensembles for Day 15. Warmer risks would be -GLAMM otherwise cold could happen. Welcome to the Cynical South @Blue Moon but I thought you're from here. As you know if it could snow in the South, still forecast rain. In Oswego NY, it's just the opposite. If it could snow in Upstate NY it will.
  5. nrgjeff
    European weeklies shift cooler second half of November. Normal instead of warmer, more in line with CFS. MJO would support. Also if ridging gets stuck in the Yukon, vs AK or West Coast. In the South we just hang onto Day 15. I've no thoughts on Friday. Actually I do but in kindergarten they said if you don't have anything nice to say...
  6. nrgjeff
    Coolish pattern persists first 12-15 days of November. It's a start. But we gotta get rid of this overcast no precip.
  7. nrgjeff
    Indeed it came in under forecast. However the usual places cashed in. Lower 48 hype was always BS. Apparently Iceland gets another shot this evening. Could be too early North America. It's Never for the Lower 48.
  8. nrgjeff
    Updates just after 00Z with a 24 hour forecast into the time of interest. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts I feel like NOAA is less hype than the .com URL. If NOAA jacks up that Aurora Forecast movie chart (lower left) it's game time. For you guys. I'm South and cloudy. Double whammy!
  9. nrgjeff
    Yukon ridge would be cold down here November through Feb. In addition another stronger than forecast trip through MJO phases 5-6 would be colder than the 16-20 day models.
  10. nrgjeff
    Interesting chatter now about a Yukon Ridge. They are actually quite rare in late October and early November. Alaska or West Coast are more common. Over history Yukon ridges are rare this exact time of year, but have been particularly stubborn once set up. Models break it down around Day 15 but then some hint at a rebuild 16-20 day. That 5-day composite is still warm, but details lurk. Do we tee up a cold November? Then do we leverage that correlation into the rest of winter? I'm not sold. La Nina is notoriously variable. On the bullish side though, perhaps the warm interlude is brief in a cold Novie. Image was posted a few days ago, so it's not the current 11-15 day. However the argument remains valid. Plus that falling -QBO. Please do not share the image outside our Region.
  11. nrgjeff
    Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning. @John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get.
  12. nrgjeff
    We need a rave glowstick emoji / reaction for events like above. Meanwhile Chattanooga feels like Wichita this morning. Wind is blowing from the south and it's stiff. Started right at 8am. MRX with the precision advisories, haha!
  13. nrgjeff
    I was waiting for peak up there. Looks like I waited too long. It's peak but ruined. When did fall foliage become as frustrating as storm chasing? Meanwhile the Gulf Coast got hammered Wednesday. Surprising contrast on not so grungy tornadoes.
  14. nrgjeff
    Welp. Fall foliage goes down the shitter in the southern Apps. Hopefully the Cumberland Plateau does much better holding foliage.
  15. nrgjeff
    Anyway John is right about November correlation to winter. October is worthless. November tends to correlate with the balance of winter, Dec-Feb. Not every year, but over the years November and bal-winter have a decent correlation coefficient. March always does what March wants to do, haha! Deterministic models, Ensembles, and Weeklies all seem to want to start November cold. That's only the first week or two, and not the whole month. However it's baby steps if one is eyeing the November and balance of winter correlation. GFS wants to get mild by mid-Nov. GOA low yuck. Euro is still cool-ish. Canadian wants to reload cold, with another ridge poking into western Canada. MJO could favor the Euro in between solution. Champions Classic is in November. This year with have two versions. College basketball, and the three weather models. Check back in two weeks!
  16. nrgjeff
    Sell natural gas! Not investment advice. I'm just tired of the ECWMF weeklies choking. And don't sell natty in the face of this upward momentum. At least not today. However the weeklies might have MJO support. Both the EC and GFS weeklies have the cooler look. Legacy CFS goes warm. Let's see which works out. Check back in two weeks. Please do not share the image outside of our Region.
  17. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Thanks Chuck. I'll take an order of +TNI when the Nina transitions to Nino. And a bunch of Plains severe!
  18. nrgjeff
    Nice pictures @PowellVolz from Monday. Back on Thursday I bet you were watching that cell like a hawk. Don't mess with Mom! I remember a couple times in Kansas calling Mom when a hook was approaching her. Of course she's on it (aware not chasing) but we look out for family.
  19. nrgjeff
    It might have tried, or a bird may have farted. We actually have the instability and juuust enough wind shear. However just enough usually does not sustain anything. Unless it's Midnight with fog of course, haha!
  20. nrgjeff
    They write a 20% of watch issuance. So you're saying there's a chance... My only goal is shelfie. Not much turning with height. However I like any day in Dixie with good visibility!
  21. nrgjeff
    Thank you for the update and foliage forecast. We were going to try to get out this weekend, but the last weekend of October is probably better for us. I figure above 3K ft is good this weekend. Thanks to ample moisture in spring and summer, and finally decent diurnal trends, I'm hoping for a great show in the valleys and even urban areas again like last year. Chatty is definitely after Halloween.
  22. nrgjeff
    Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting. Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.
  23. nrgjeff
    Best deal is -PDO and -AMO. Then instead of a SER with the PDO, the jet stream is pretty much buried all winter across the South. The two multi-decadal indices are about 15 years out of phase with around 30 year phases each. Last time they lined up with mid-60s to early 80s. Did somebody say it used to snow then? About 15 years ago I thought they might line up again as the -PDO took hold. Then it let go (+PDO years) which got some cold in here from 2007-2011. However the +AMO never wants to let go. Right now all I see is warm SSTs across the northern hemisphere except La Nina. Barf!
  24. nrgjeff
    Latest MD mentions possible watch downstream KY/TN. Also notes 850 mb and I not 925 mb will increase in strength toward evening. SPC leaves the door open for either severe or tornado box downstream. Boundary lurks from Dyersburg toward Clarksville. Said west-east boundary should promote more SRH than the junk cold font.
  25. nrgjeff
    Yeah the +PNA is forecast on most models. It's a cold signal here. Source region means it could be normal vs cold; however, that's lovely fall compared to recent wx. While the 500 mb plots look cold, 2m T forecasts are blah. Makes sense with the North much warmer than normal. Often that pattern is cloudy cool here. However northwest flow should mean more sunny mild days and cool nights. Can we have an order or three of that? We need a mix of sunny and cloudy days for fall foliage. Sunny is always more enjoyable. However for photography cloudy has some advantages. Eh forget that more sun always!
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