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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Honestly the GFS is better than the Euro at sniffing out a warm nose disaster. That said I'll take some more Ukie. Hey the British Pound is stronger than the US Dollar or Euro right now. Currencies method? In all seriousness, I'm preparing for cold rain KCHA. Might as well go 0-3 and the strike-out.
  2. nrgjeff
    Impressive blowout. Covered the spread and more. Too bad I was chicken to bet at -15.5 but I knew Tennessee would win. Instead I took a stupid bet for KU against a ranked team. No spread but at least the W. In other SEC news the basketball version of the Iron Bowl was entertaining. Free throws will matter in closer games, esp at home where you gotta get the W.
  3. nrgjeff
    Warm nose will win. No surface high. Next? MJO convection is fixin' to push east from Indonesia and recharge the West Pac. That at least keeps the SE US cold.
  4. nrgjeff
    I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol! Extreme cynicism is a Chattanooga defense mechanism.
  5. nrgjeff
    Honestly liked the Tennessee energy at LSU; however, LSU was equally energetic and unconscious shooting. Back home can the Vols cover a 15+ spread hosting SC? Vols are going to win, just not sure by 15. In other SEC action Alabama hosts Auburn, which should be a great game. Kansas 13 points over Iowa State is LOL. We are not that good even at home. LSU or Auburn would beat Kansas in Lawrence, lol!
  6. nrgjeff
    12Z GFES mean is closer to the 12Z ECMWF Op solution. Stick that warm tongue somewhere else!
  7. nrgjeff
    EC Weeklies do carry that into week 3. Brrrr! However the -PNA concerns allow a SER to rear up week 4. I'm not concerned about week 4 though. Looks like we are game on for the next two to three weeks. Temps will be cold. Southern stream looks active, plus possible clippers out of the northern stream.
  8. nrgjeff
    True -PNA risks exist about Day 16. However we have excellent chances in the 6-15 day. Will focus there since it's nearer term anyway. Interesting this coming weekend system was shown rain and thunder late last week. Storm track is markedly south of previously forecast. If the weekend fails, I suspect another short-wave follows early next week. We can worry about the end of the month later. For now, we need us some ECMWF love!
  9. nrgjeff
    Yeah I'll take an order (or 3) of the 12Z ECMWF. Southeast Tenn!
  10. nrgjeff
    Bottom of last page 28.. Looks computer generated tbh. Nothing came that close to Chattanooga in Hamilton Co.
  11. nrgjeff
    Brief mild period late next week makes sense ahead of the weekend cold front. Keep in mind AN temps in January is still cold. New convection in the IO may be crossing Indonesia at the time... but propagating on to the West Pac. Then we set up a return to Alaska ridge and perhaps North Atlantic help. Normally I'd be really skeptical of the MLK Day week forecast; however, it is peak climo. We need to reel that sh!t in including southeast Tenn.
  12. nrgjeff
    NFL weekend is going to be nuts! After being robbed in Cincy (Refs setting up last week excitement) KC looks for home field. KC's fate depends on Houston. Alas, that's the Titans game! Honestly Tennessee deserves home field, but of course I also have KC interests. Finally Las Vegas and the Chargers Sunday night, win and in, lose and go home. Can't stand the Raiders. Go Chargers!
  13. nrgjeff
    Carvers nails the serious weather discussion above. MJO and Tele-connections are supportive. To strengthen the thunderstorms to snow method, we're going to need tornado watches with the MLK Day weekend system. Then we can have snow in the 11-20 day, lol!
  14. nrgjeff
    Welp. At least the ECMWF weeklies are cold out three weeks. Keep trying. Might keep throwing bricks. Maybe hit some baskets.
  15. nrgjeff
    Knoxville zig-zag heartburn update.. Should only last another hour. Hard to see Knox radar but Hytop shows better CC trends. Line is finally dropping south on the Plateau. Should translate east. Remember this is not an elevation problem. It's the storm track. Can't promise anything south of there, but Knoxville should barely hold on snow.
  16. nrgjeff
    Going back and fourth another 90 minutes in Knoxville, in infer from CC loop. Gut says switch for good, just in time for rush hour. Schools enjoy your 4-day weekend!
  17. nrgjeff
    Athens reports are disheartening regarding the warm nose; however, this is a storm track issue more than an elevation issue. Athens is higher than Knox, but Knox is in a better spot relative to the storm track. Radar in Middle Tenn is filling in better than I'd imagined. Still light, but not zero. Certainly it's better than the CAMs had depicted with the hard shut-off. North Alabama visible satellite is bumpier than I'd expected by now - a sign of continued lift or at least multi-layered clouds. Both trends are favorable where it's currently snowing. For those in the warm nose, join me and the Dark Side. Let your anger flow through you. We Sith can hope for severe weather next time. This system would be a warm front tornado machine in March.
  18. nrgjeff
    Nashville is mighty close to the dry slot. Southern 840 suburbs are probably about done. Downtown north could get clipped with what little back side this system offers. Meanwhile MRX is growing more confident about Knoxville. Mentions snow and ice covered roads evening rush hour Knox to TRI. Warm nose is trying, but I-40/I-81 are simply in a better position with this storm track than say Chattanooga. Or Signal Mtn. Oof!
  19. nrgjeff
    Correlation Coefficient bright band diagnostics looking at both Nashville and Huntsville radar... West of I-65 snow line is trying to move south, as expected on the back side. Carry on Nashville! Hammer time Upper Plateau! Bright band is trying to hold over KCHA (our mix) but appears warm air is nosing up too. Knoxville is going to be close. Gut says 850 T drops back side before moisture departs - some snow Knox. Like Vols basketball, you have to sweat it out before the win! Can't imagine the TRI Cities busting here. Only concerns are the usual local orographics. Gotta take turns.
  20. nrgjeff
    Snow in northwest Alabama again. I need to be in the Shoals for snow and severe.
  21. nrgjeff
    All rain East Brainerd. KCHA reports sleet and 40, but no pellets at my location. When's the next chance of severe weather?
  22. nrgjeff
    MRX just updated. Knox may start as rain. Quick change to snow. Esp north of I-40. Knox proper will be fine. AFD does not show it yet, but they just wrote it to EMs.
  23. nrgjeff
    As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow!
  24. nrgjeff
    I wouldn't worry about that 18Z NAM. HRRR run off the same WRF is in line with the GFS/Euro. Upper Plateau is staying all snow. Bank on that! Tennessee has sports bettering. What about weather betting? Though I have not looked hard, Kentucky snow looks excellent. PVA is lined up. Should be plenty of overrunning moisture up there. Last post today. You all know my Chattan00ga forecast. No snow in the valley. Wins for Signal and Lookout. Mocs beat Wofford tonight.
  25. nrgjeff
    Re the vort max: Fortunately the flatter / less amped kind of offsets the north. They both keep similar results at the ground. Chattanooga border war. Elsewhere I still think the Upper Valley will be fine, barring a particularly brutal energy transfer debacle. My gut says it'll be OK. Advisories hoisted from North Mississippi and North Alabama northward. MRX will decide in an hour, situated in Eastern Time.
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