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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    GFS has performed better this winter. It's weeklies have also beat those of the Euro. Finally, though more anecdotal, GFS performs better with severe. American coding might be best for American weather, esp niche like tornadoes. Yeah I'll take a blend of the 12Z EC and 12Z GFS please. Could Chattanooga be that lucky? No don't answer that!
  2. nrgjeff
    Anyway @Uncle Nasty I'm still in Chattanooga. Obs you can just see what @dwagner88 posts. He's usually first and I do not repeat since we're 3 blocks apart. Sports news Kansas failed to cover the spread. Got the moneyline but missed the spread. Tennessee rescued my night! Profitable!! Sports betting is going way better than stock picking. Heck it's all gambling. Go with what works!
  3. nrgjeff
    Like your stealth snow chances @John1122 the moral of the story is live on the Upper Plateau. Also for storm chasing tbh. Saturday I'm throwing in the towel. Tuesday* is another chance of either a northwest jog, or another offshore debacle. *written before the Euro
  4. nrgjeff
    Let's be honest, straight-forward, and frank.. 12Z suite overall needs a train wreck gif. However the GFS did already tick northwest relative to itself. EC cave is epic. Canadian and UK, smh. All that griping aside, and about 1/3 of ensemble members are better - deeper 552 into Alabama and cooperative southern stream 570. Still four days out. I'd say another 24 hours for a northwest jog or jump, 36 hours max. Otherwise punt.
  5. nrgjeff
    Need the back shortwave to be stronger out of Texas Friday. Lead post-frontal wave Thursday night (after Wednesday night front) is forecast to be fairly equal on the GFS. EC brushes it off, favoring the back wave developing a more robust storm. Here in Chattanooga we'll take dry air bust risk over warm nose bust risk 99/100 times. Of course this will be that 1 time we bust dry, haha!
  6. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The South will have severe weather. I will chase every set-up. Waiting for the Plains has not rewarded me. Full embrace of the hilly tree filled South is activated!
  7. nrgjeff
    Regarding the Volcano @Holston_River_Rambler I saw somewhere in Twitter it ejected a tiny fraction of the SOx of Pinatubo - and another big one. I forgot the name and can't find the tweet. Apparently it's not in that thread. Saw over the weekend. Context is that this eruption will do nothing to pause the global warming trend. However dust and particulates was not addressed. So I bring more questions than answers. Kind of like winter forecasting, lol!
  8. nrgjeff
    If cold air is truly in place downslope is not such a deal killer. How about an inverted trough to enhance snow? Not a forecast. Surface high is not quite aligned to jam down (resupply) cold. ECMWF is a true Miller A, none of this Miller B transfer garbage. Short wave out of Texas gins up a Gulf Low that rides up the East Coast, close enough to get East Tenn. GEFS has two pieces of energy, and is concerning; so, the GFS is not a bearish outlier relative to the ensemble mean. EC is known to miss subtle details, even though it's the better synoptic model. Re the GFS, be scared be very scared of a dry air bust. Fingers crossed the ECMWF scores an important win for East Tenn.
  9. nrgjeff
    Sunday night my location East Brainerd, Chattanooga got a half-inch or even close to an inch. It was sitting atop the grass. Kids were able to build a decent size snowman though. I did not post an ob in the storm thread because I'm three blocks from @dwagner88 and even in fickle East Hamilton Co that's close enough to have matching obs. If he posts I generally will not duplicate. Oh yeah also took snow matters into my own hands. Skied West Virginia atop 6-8 inches of new snow. Once in a while the Mid Atlantic puts together a Western/Rockies type weekend. It. was. sweet! Ski location WinterPlace right off I-77, knowing Interstates would be cleared quickly.
  10. nrgjeff
    It's frequent in spring to kill off severe wx chances via too stable. I can't recall it in winter, but I only have a cynical short-term memory. Key is to get help above the surface too.
  11. nrgjeff
    You're right @Carvers Gap I was comparing with 00Z. The 06Z was dreadful. Pattern recognition says TRI does fine back side. JC might do better than Kingsport but you know more about the micros up there. I was also in a hurry. MRX proper is the dreadful snow hole those runs. It's all meso-scale crap 48 hours out anyway. In a perfect world that comma head goes KCHA KTYS KTRI but that's a big ask, and without other micro-debacles.
  12. nrgjeff
    Yes @Holston_River_Rambler I'm in and out frequently. Re your reply to me @TellicoWx it could be so if that TROWAL is correct. Truest sense of a TROWAL is warm air advection at 850/700 mb from the North instead of the usual Southeast. It's definitely there on the 12Z GFS and why it gets KCHA. If in a hurry one can look for the 700 mb vort max south. Whether or not it's a true TROWAL or standard comma head, it's good news. TROWAL is nice because it's a bonus. Where some systems cut off in CAA, the meso-scale eeks out WAA from the north. PS wow that's a bitter pill for Kingsport.
  13. nrgjeff
    Knoxville north is still in the game East Tenn. Trend is not ideal this morning, but the end of the storm is still 48+ hours out. We need an O/U pool on the TROWAL. North or South of I-40 and I-81?
  14. nrgjeff
    I prefer binary options over snow amounts. I'll take the snow day bet. If the TROWAL passes over NE Tenn the system could recover well after a dismal start.
  15. nrgjeff
    Agree with Carvers above. Southern stream energy is there. Just need a little wave to kick off a system. Plus I always favor getting the cold pattern in place first. Worry about a system later. Unless it's Jackson MS to Savanah GA. Oops!
  16. nrgjeff
    I generally agree with MRX thinking. Valley has MAJOR boundary layer issues Sunday morning. However the comma head / trowal lurks Sunday afternoon. If the main storm track was not difficult enough, that last feature is meso-scale. It could rescue Chattanooga from the snow drought iff it tracks far enough south. However model consensus is no again for Chatty - just north. Western and Middle Tenn look more straight fwd on the main storm track. Middle Tenn now looks to avoid heart breaking boundary layer temps. East winds off the Plateau not enough downslope to crush dreams. Kentucky is going to do very well here. Almost as exciting as the UK Louisville games!
  17. nrgjeff
    NCEP is markedly more bullish than even this morning. Those ensemble individual lows tell the story better than the mean. South! All optimism excludes Chattanooga by default until within 12 hours.
  18. nrgjeff
    Still a slight risk of an energy transfer debacle Great Valley, but it's lessening. Having the 500/700 mb vort maxes south is a nice change! Looks like 850 and 700 (gotta watch that crap too) are colder. Time to dig up the TROWAL graphic too. Classic!
  19. nrgjeff
    You could consider somewhere in West Virginia too. I-77 goes right up to Flattop Mtn and Winterplace Ski Area. Advantage is pretty much all Interstate getting back home. Believe driving time is surprisingly not much greater than that to NC. Also lower warm nose risk. Finally a little birdie told me despite the MLK Day weekend, rooms remain available that way. Be careful about food though. Hearing many restaurants are closed due to staff illness. Sports betting is also legal in WV, lol!
  20. nrgjeff
    My definition of regional temps is a 5-city average of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Huntsville. Not even close.
  21. nrgjeff
    I think low temps in the 11-15 day will get down around 20 region average a couple days. Unless we get deep snowcover I don't see low teens. Note anything from this weekend will have melted off; so, it'd require another one. February I still think is warmer than normal. MJO indeed is entering a favorable phase for January. Did it ever leave it? Anyway Indonesia convection is pushing into the West Pac... good for Jan. However brand new storms are percolating far west Indian Ocean. When those reach phases 3-5 the -PNA should invade the Western US and allow the SER to re-establish in Feb.
  22. nrgjeff
    I'll go for 3/4 SEC. Kentucky Auburn LSU. Big 12 is competitive but none are consistent. Ditto Big 10 and ACC.
  23. nrgjeff
    ^ This TBH ^ About the only thing I have confidence in with this storm.
  24. nrgjeff
    Tennessee description from @Carvers Gap is a carbon copy of Kansas. I'm not taking KU or UT on the road or if the spreads are wide at home. Speaking of LSU, they won again for me last night. @jaxjagman Auburn is also fun to watch. Kentucky will be in the SEC mix of course. All I know is watching SEC basketball is much better than the Big 12 for my blood press. Sure I pull for Tennessee, but it's not quite as stressful as Kansas.
  25. nrgjeff
    Read discussions from NC, Virginia and West Virginia offices. Even that far north they are worried about warm nose / boundary later west of the Apps and east of the Blue Ridge. High press off the Coast, rather than Great Lakes. Even the snowy Euro has surface temps well above freezing. Honestly I'm already telling friends and family Chattanooga all rain 100% confidence. This is one of those systems that could sharply disappoint even Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau. West Tenn could pull off a miracle while it's still positive tilt clipper characteristics. Once it goes negative tilt the warm nose becomes a threat. Also east winds downslope off the Plateau Mid-Tenn. Great Valley pain east. All this said, I-40 north could get sticking snow. Kentucky should get several inches of snow. Upper Plateau looks good. TRI could be fine back side. The more I look for work (not just being cynical) the more I think this is setting up for major disappointment.
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