nrgjeff

Drought at my house is ending. After 2-3 dry weeks, missed twice. Then our luck turned. Four days in a row of at least a good downpour - two of which included steady rain after. Temps still look AN the coming week, but not as strong as prior weeks. Precip will be hit and miss of course.

I have watched USFL football. Nice to have it on weekends again. However I am counting down to NFL and College.

Unfortunately the heat this week will be more South concentrated than I imagined last week. Humidity will be lower, but temps higher. Combo probably still is lower heat indices than last week. Good ol' Southern tricky front ushers in beautiful high press a few days; then, upper ridge builds back over and hot! Looks like AQ advisories for some metros. If it's not humidity it's haze. Global wind and some MJO forecasts hint at the ridge migrating West in July. However with normal temps rising, and slightly AN forecast, sensible weather may not ease up much. Also the stubborn PNA and ABNA which want to stay about where they are. Perhaps those more specific forecasts will be less accurate than the GW and MJO.

Same here Friday. Wind blew, and no rain at my house. Lawn was hanging in there, but this week is going to be ugly no matter how much watering. Will water lightly and force the lawn to limp through.

Welcome home! Your Oregon Coast gale might beat my Kansas shelf cloud this year. Now back to hot humid life in Tenn. Next week looks like the SER tries to reload, even if under a passing GL to Northeast trough. Been a while since we've got sustained SER in summer tbh. Maybe week 3 will be more sane. Models want to retrograde the Midwest ridge. Even if week 4 is back to AN temps, it has a more spread out feel vs concentrated ridge. Think positive, or at least less crazy heat. How long until college football? LOL!

We had a sub-par storm chase in the Plains. Definitely should have stayed here for the meteors. Plus I know the daytime hiking weather was also fantastic here.

Monday I agree that Minnesota is the primary target (MN Storms). Chasers with the time and energy should get up there. We will probably target the south end in Neb. Kan. Note a frontal occlusion is forecast between targets Monday; so, it's one or the other. South target the DL and CF separate again. Also the front from the North low may drape in such a way to act like a stationary front east of the South TP. Sunday night rain may also deposit outflow boundaries for Monday. Finally Monday LLJ will be strong South too; so, it should anchor such east-west boundaries. Good for Monday Madness. Again the day could be more historic up in Minn. We have to play south target in case the chase goes into Tuesday.

Observed sculped low-top structure on the Cumberland Plateau between Spencer and Sparta, Tenn. However no lightning. Almost reminded me of tropical remnants. Except it's 20 degrees cooler up there (Thursday vs a tropical day lower elevation). The surface wind was howling though.

Sunday and Monday are clear eastern ND and western Minn. Checks air fare to MSP. Details 3rd paragraph. First Saturday, I would target just behind the boundary intersection near the Black Hills. Roads are not ideal, but terrain can help even if the SPC fades the set-up. Black Hills are behind the cap (good) - and boundaries (meh) so, it is a pure terrain play. Sun/Mon both feature double short waves and double surface responses. Yes 3-4 days out, but models are not going to blow that basic type of forecast. Trouble is northern waves drag up warm 850 Ts ahead of southern waves. Gosh, like forecasting snow busts in the South! OK back to the Plains. Nebraska gets boundary intersections. Excellent CAPE is under worst cap. Easier cap is right on or behind boundaries. You know, I don't like right on boundary initiation any better than just-in-time moisture. Eastern North Dakota and Minnesota enjoy a better set-up IMHO Sun/Mon. Frontal waves and perhaps warm front intersection with more traditional boundaries. Less cap. Still good CAPE. Said boundaries promote local SRH. Someone on another forum mentions June 17, 2010 but who knows. Saw after making my thoughts. Tuesday (or as early as Monday Neb.) could still go Nebraska Kansas, but LLJ moves out as main trough ejects. That's faster for Tuesday, and takes away a solid chase day. Bottom line: Sunday and Monday look like the kind of days that can work out eastern ND western Minn. Saturday junk will deposit other boundaries for Sunday. Rinse and repeat Mon. Maybe Tue.

Boundary intersection in Kentucky. Goodie that terrain! Sarcastic. Second chance if Gulf front can lift north enough to intersect pre-frontal trough in Alabama or Georgia. Doubtful. Hoosier Alley is probably the preferred location, but I'm not interested enough to go into their Regional forum, lol.

Even before seeing MRX severe discussion, MRX mention of mountain wave means the LLJ will be there. Unless Gulf MCS cuts it off, but looks OK. Dews will be there. It's late May not March; so, MCS does is much less a deal killer here. If Mississippi is 5% Wednesday, Alabama is certainly 5% Thursday. That's some easy pickings. Day 2 update would not surprise me; but, they might wait until Day 1. Thursday the 700 and 500 mb winds are not as straight south as Wed. More SSW. 200 mb is south, so some VBV; but again late season, those minor problems are not deal killers like in March. CAPE looks skinny, esp low levels, so heating will have to over achieve. LI is definitely there; so, just low level CAPE has to come in. Look for pre-frontal trough Bama to East Tenn. Perhaps outflow intersection with it. Today and tonight rain will provide plenty of boundaries.

Starting to believe a Northern Plains Upper Midwest sequence is on-tap beginning this weekend. Too good to be true again? Let's look under the hood. We have reeled it well into the 6-10 day; so, I'm cautiously optimistic. Models smodels, but they are a tool. I look for failure modes, like forecasting snow in the South, haha. Any tropical depressions look buried south Gulf or Yucatan, greater than 15 degrees away from the US trough - no impact if models are right. Probably no TD anyway. Back to the hemispheric pattern forecast; well, it's amazing Rockies trough with Mid-Atlantic ridge. Looking at the Indian Ocean and Pacific satellite.. MJO and Kelvin Waves are supportive. Pacific jet extension is robust; look for that to poke in North America and retract, yielding the Rockies trough. Global Wind is falling, which is favorable for that pattern in late May early June. As for the meso-scale and daily details, see the original post by @Quincy I totally agree. This time of year I'll take broad trough with subtle waves. Boundary forecasting will also be paramount - usually the morning of. Barring a major debacle (which is less and less likely) we are going to tee up a sequence for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Happy and SAFE chasing!

Thank you John. We all appreciate you watering, lol! I last watered Friday right after mowing, to reduce stress on it. Fortunately that's not necessary for a while now.

Yes I'm working on an inch plus of rain already. Might get nearly that much more, but probably another half. Then more later this week. Lawn is happy. I am happy. No more watering!

Weenie Warning! Can we do this again in January? That'd be money for anyone I-65 east. Mid-South usually scores off a different pattern. Oh wait, in winter the last slug of moisture in Alabama would fall apart on the way in here. Actually it usually does not, but I'm being cynical here. Bama delivers. From the northwest snow dies in downslope off the Plateau into KCHA.

Sat. May 21: Boundary intersection forecast WSW of MEM this afternoon in the flat Ark. Delta. Technically not our Region, but I'm thinking about chasing it. Boundary intersection is outflow / quasi-cold front, not preferred. Rather have a pre-frontal trough away from the CF. However instability is robust. Also modest LLJ flow is forecast. Upper levels are modest too. In late May that is great with high CAPE. Just the boundary pair is not my preferred combo. CF and WF drawn IL/IN. Yellow is outflow. Magenta is possible boundary intersection forecasts. Idea is just get toward MEM. Normally I go through HSV (few trucks) but probably BNA to offer flexibility if Kentucky pops. Still the best shear looks Ark/Tenn/Miss. General Public notes: This is a low probability event. Bored on a Saturday. Awaiting Gam 4s in NHL and NBA and USFL Sunday.

Gaylord Maps pic makes me sick. Looks like Chattanooga after our tornado. Ditto Scanner. Alas, we are still interested in severe and that is OK. We cannot control it. Anyway I am looking at Illinois and Indiana for meso-scale accidents on Saturday. Doubt anything will be learned from 00Z data. It is wake up in the morning and decide if I want to drive 5-6 hours for a low-probability event. Probably not, but I'll check. One scenario is stable rain-out. Other is quick end to morning rain. Leaves boundary south of synoptic front. I'm a fool for outflow boundaries. However the south part creates terrain issues. We'll see.

Global models point to a late season Mid South setup Tuesday 5/24 and perhaps Tenn. Valley Wednesday 5/25; however, I doubt the latter as low level winds will tend to veer off. Tuesday we have a system with vort max dug into Texas coming out into the Mid South. While it feels late in the season, long-term climo May is still severe weather season. Recent years the South shut down by mid-May. It has not always been that way. Keep in mind Hoosier Alley (not far) gets slammed in mid-May even recent years. Pattern recognition is a little shaky vs recent years with a bowling ball vs open wave; however again, this used to happen. LLJ responds Tuesday, and not veered off trash. We'll see. Late May we don't even have to worry about instability or dewpoints. Anyone step outside? If low level winds respond next week, it's game on!

Boundary is sharpening up on the TN/KY border and drifting north into KY. ARWs were a disaster with the false washout in East Tenn. HRRR and NAM sniffed out the north bias. FV3 was in between - but still wrong! At any rate, action might start from MO to IL before rolling into Kentucky (our Region). Could get going as a nice QLCS. Any sups ahead would offer more rotation risk - esp riding the boundary. Purple dots is MCV aloft. Red line is surface WF / wind shift boundary. Higher dews south are marked by deeper Cu field. However I expect the severe weather mainly Kentucky. Maybe drop into TRI later, but weaker by evening.

After three wet years in a row.. We are kind of due for a summer of making the water utility more profitable. Already in May!

Worked out well for naked eye viewing through the high clouds. Orange effect was quite muted; so, did not attempt photography. Partial phases were pretty classic even with high clouds. Glad I woke up for the last one (4am) since this was less than ideal. Last two were visible from windows, easy haha! Three ago (cold January) is most memorable because it was the first time weather worked out in literally decades for me. However directly overhead it required going outside in ski clothes. At any rate, the total solar remains the granddaddy of them all. Little less than two years I'll visit Texas or Ohio or somewhere.

High clouds are encroaching East Tennessee / east Regional Forum area this evening. Lunar eclipse looks clouded out Middle and West. Hoping thin high clouds won't make much of a difference in East Tenn. In contrast to solar, a lunar eclipse does not require perfect weather. Just not overcast. Can't justify a thread this late, so going with increasing high clouds observation. Hopefully a good show later.

Late spring La Nina things... KCHA airport reported wind gusts to the 50s but I forgot the exact reading. Twas a good storm. Chattanooga had established an inverted V sounding, as dews mixed out, which promoted the strong straight line winds.

Good point Dusty. Actually the morning (or just earlier) rain likely laid down an outflow boundary which enhanced local storm relative shear SRH. Absolute instability is not always as important as the rate of destabilization - which is fast going from rain back to sun. Speaking of all that, East Tennessee had morning rain today (Friday May 6). Surface low in IL about to track into IN. Cold front in Missouri is not drawn. Quasi dry line DL in yellow, hailers probably on it under colder mid-levels. Warm front WF in red should host some hailers with some wind. Prefrontal trough dotted green is most interesting. Should have a blend of instability and some wind shear. Low level shear is a little better on the WF, but instability is just-in-time. DL is a little veered off both sides for tor. Prefrontal trough PFT might have that low top arc. We'll see. PFT could also accelerate (actually mix east faster with background wind) and/or merge with WF. Faster would put the area of interest east of Chattanooga later. Knoxville depends on instability and storm interaction. Just in 16:30 SPC shows that arc shape with the ENH part. Flexible forecast for either WF or trough East Tenn. Arc into Georgia.

Wednesday afternoon the SPC updated Day 2 (for Thursday) pushing Slight into Nashville and adding 5% tornado from West Kentucky through Clarksville TN into the Nashville metro. That is along the Wednesday cool front, retreating as warm front and/or outflow boundary Thursday. See if any morning rain, which would actually enhance local SRH if rain departs by Noon. I'm not really expecting anything big. Just need to give our region some attention. I can't get to the Plains yet, ha. Most likely Thursday Tenn / KY is just clusters and straight wind.