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Maybe the Atlantic will give us something to watch. Wall of shear in the Caribbean at the moment. Euro wants to weaken it midweek but the damage may be done. Don't forget to visit the main Tropical Headquarters too. Meanwhile in the Pacific both the US Navy and Japan Met Agency have typhoons going straight west toward China. Forecast ends still at sea. Anyway that could bump up the ABNA which is not a cool weather pattern for North America. No surprise model extended forecasts (1-15 day) warmed up over the weekend. It's not crazy hot, but annoying after hope last week. September is starting to look less cool, but on the optimistic side there's no reason to go blowtorch either.

My memorable trifecta was Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew. Each one was worse than the other for the US. Andrew had that pause with some shear; then it passed, and Andrew turned left with RI because to a short-wave ridge. That little feature was remarkable. As for the proximity to landfall RI, Camille excepted, storms usually can't maintain Cat 5 for more than 12-24 hours. It's probably a mix of issues researched. Perfect conditions are rare. Momentum does not last forever in the Atmo. Energy is used and the sea surface is churned. The big ones still carry their ACE - like Katrina. But we have to watch out for those named above that bombed right before and into landfall. Back to my trifecta. Gilbert was the first one I tracked really seriously. Hugo shocked me into SC. Andrew was (for me) THEE storm of record until Katrina - which shocked me to a new level. Now we get shockers more frequently.

Tis the season for tropical systems to increase model volatility. I was looking at some ensemble spread, reasonably tight through day 7 and then blows wide open by day 10 (looks more like day 14). Late August things. Short-term late next week toward Labor Day I could see Tennessee Valley temps verify above current forecast. If a tropical system enters the Gulf and approaches the US (even if just on its way to elsewhere) we'll probably get subsidence heat on the north side. Oh joy! Long-term we have Pacific action ramping up. Global models can't decide where to put the resulting troughs and ridges in the North Pacific into Alaska. China landfalls would amp up the ABNA and could be warm. Japan recurves could amp up Alaska, and bring our lovely East trough. Are you ready for some football? Weather. Atlantic also stays active on Ensembles the full two weeks. Deeper into September a tropical cyclone to our east can bring down cooler air. West still acts like a warm front, heat humidity and all. My gut is saying reasonable September temps - for the first time in years.

Actually feels cool nights and mornings now. My blood thinned out like living in Houston, after weeks of 95 high 75 low. Looks like Sept may be reasonable there. However I laughed when I saw this on Oklahoma football Twitter: Fans being treated for heat exhaustion while OU plays cupcakes in September is a rite of passage. Been the same around here recent years for the SEC. Here's to actual football weather instead for football season.

The two short-waves passing through today and Wednesday.. Can we instead save them for winter? The stalled front to our south included.

Gotta choose seats wisely. So I'm not the only one? I always consider sun angle when I look at the seating chart for any outdoor sport. At the risk of jinxing it, shhh, glimmers of hope are showing up for a not hot Sept. Fingers crossed!

Can't wait until those obs are snow bands. Yeah I said it! Since we're all thinking it, somebody has to be the weenie.

The +PNA should keep moderate temps in here for a couple weeks. Humidity will ebb and flow, but I think we'll get a few nice days weekend into early next week. The more humid days will promote scattered t-showers though. Looking ahead into Sept. Leaning toward a return to a drier weather. I think just once or twice in the 2000s La Nina has been mild in Sept. Otherwise, go with summer dragging out (even after a moderate August) per recent years. Might put that us under a SER, another frequent visitor recent Septembers. Forecast does not consider tropical entanglements. Eventually the Atlantic will wake up in late August like every year.

Second hand Ob from Downtown Chattanooga Wednesday: Six teachers lost cars (totaled) to flooding at Battle Academy. Parking overflows (valid pun) onto street parking. Those cars suffered the worst water damage. Meanwhile about 10 miles away I have standing water in my back yard, which is usually a cool season thing. I figure August sun is still high enough to evaporate it quickly. Compared to dry 3-4 weeks ago, oh how things change! Might go back the other way in Sept. I'll save it for the pinned forecast thread.

Huntsville radar out for the month. Major upgrade in progress. Why August? The South can have flooding rains including tropical cyclone remnants. Severe wx is also possible if TC remnants go hybrid. I figure a fixed number of maintenance teams are available. They rotate from site to site. Somebody is going to get the outage at a bad time. Might be time to look at the budget. Common sense suggestions from Appalachia.

Primary pattern I'm going with persistent SER bigger than what I infer from NOAA. In fact late fall could get really dry again. Not looking like a fall severe wx season; maybe the Midwest. Secondary pattern should be better. Occasionally those La Nina West troughs will couple with AK ridge and lumber east through the Mid South. A good one sliding east rather than cutting would benefit all. Overall I'm AN temps entire forum and BN winter fun east section of the forum. West half could have some winter excitement. At least a clean SER is sunny! Note that cynicism plays a large role in my forecast until about November.

The case for tough love and watering cut-off in July is made. Lawn is deep green again. I watered in June for the early season, but only every 3rd day. Make it root deep. Even if we flash drought (unlikely now) it should be fine.. Sod is the exception. Must be babied all season long. I have to guess sod in this area is in good shape now. I have standing water in low spots. What a regime change!

Complaining occasionally works. Got a thunderstorm last night. And now...

Yes @8283 El Nino Baby the Plateau, Walden's Ridge and the like are a whole other world. Winter they get snow while we get cold rain. I have come to the conclusion that a significant tropical system will be required to break the Eastern North American ridge before Labor Day or even mid-Sept. Otherwise it's gonna be a cruel something until October. Short-term addition: 18Z guidance Thursday for Friday has.. You guessed it! Dry friggin fropa for KCHA.

July in Nashville is more typical of Houston suffering. Chattanooga is almost as bad. Memphis with more 100s reads like a DFW CF6. HSV is somewhere between Houston and DFW weather. This is ridiculous. I know we were due but this sux. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: NASHVILLE MONTH: JULY YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 36 7 N LONGITUDE: 86 41 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 96 73 85 5 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 12 180 M M 4 18 180 2 96 74 85 5 0 20 0.47 0.0 0 5.4 20 170 M M 6 18 26 170 3 93 75 84 4 0 19 0.45 0.0 0 2.9 29 20 M M 6 138 38 60 4 94 75 85 5 0 20 0.19 0.0 0 4.0 24 170 M M 5 18 32 180 5 99 76 88 8 0 23 T 0.0 0 5.1 16 180 M M 5 38 21 180 6 97 79 88 8 0 23 0.79 0.0 0 6.5 17 170 M M 5 13 27 160 7 95 76 86 6 0 21 0.45 0.0 0 4.7 22 310 M M 7 138 37 320 8 99 75 87 7 0 22 0.44 0.0 0 5.7 24 50 M M 4 13 33 50 9 92 73 83 2 0 18 2.34 0.0 0 6.5 31 10 M M 8 138 40 20 10 91 72 82 1 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 17 20 M M 6 24 10 11 92 70 81 0 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 2.6 10 60 M M 1 15 110 12 95 74 85 4 0 20 T 0.0 0 7.4 18 360 M M 5 25 350 13 90 71 81 0 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 4.4 12 360 M M 6 16 310 14 93 67 80 -1 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 2.2 10 40 M M 3 14 110 15 94 71 83 2 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 13 30 M M 5 17 360 16 94 73 84 3 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 15 180 M M 5 19 180 17 92 75 84 3 0 19 T 0.0 0 7.9 35 140 M M 7 35 140 18 85 72 79 -2 0 14 0.49 0.0 0 4.5 15 210 M M 8 13 24 210 19 91 73 82 1 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 15 180 M M 5 22 210 20 99 78 89 8 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 16 210 M M 5 26 210 21 95 76 86 5 0 21 0.01 0.0 0 6.1 14 360 M M 6 3 23 10 22 98 72 85 4 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 3.7 10 40 M M 2 8 15 100 23 98 77 88 7 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 5.9 14 170 M M 1 20 140 24 96 77 87 6 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 16 200 M M 6 22 210 25 94 76 85 4 0 20 0.40 0.0 0 5.9 18 290 M M 8 13 28 290 26 94 75 85 4 0 20 0.07 0.0 M 6.2 16 320 M M 7 3 27 360 27 96 76 86 5 0 21 0.00 0.0 M 7.8 20 180 M M 8 26 180

Oh yeah this is a bad year for new sod. Established lawns recovered with the rains after the 4th of July. Sod is just so needy until it roots deeper. I also have little faith in much rain. Today the ARWs/NSSL had phantom rain again. NAM/HRRR are Dr. No short-term and right. Maybe Friday or over the weekend. Note to the forum this is a south of I-40 problem, Chattanooga back toward Memphis. When is fall? I miss football!

STL got under the train echo from hell. Classic back-building scenario WPC covers in MDs. Since we are so bored in the summer doldrums, maybe we should meet up at the site of that radar echo. Finally @PowellVolz that's some nasty damage, summer Marginal Risk micro/macro-burst things. Like the Ukraine fire hydrant though, whether is coincidence or planned.

Chunks of northern Middle and East Tennessee are in the WPC excessive rainfall outlook the next two days. My how things change. Gotta love the Tennessee Valley. About the heat. Fades middle of the week through next weekend if no sharp model changes. More thundershowers. About the following week to start August. Oh wait back in Kindergarten they said if you don't have anything nice to say...

Yeah @Knoxtron probably a large group of birds taking off. If it was 12 hours opposite (evening) I'd go bats, especially if a cave is in the area. Morning is probably birds.

You will like it here. Waldens Ridge gets snow while we are stuck at 34 with cold rain in town. Sooo often!

My yard gets tough love starting in July. About July 4 I declare my independence from watering, lol! Lawn was pretty tired before rain last week. Getting there again, but it should rain today. By now it's learned to root deep or suffer. Tough love wins in the long run. Also good to see some posts. Thought everyone died of heat stroke.

ECMWF weekly UPDATE: After the turd balance of July, ECW want to back off to normal August in the Southeast. They still torch the Plains and Midwest; so, some of that heat will bleed in here at times. Gonna need a barf bag!

My early thoughts. Travel will be required to see good snow. What's new in the South?

Looks like the core of the heat ridge wants to head out West for much of the rest of July, but could return to the Midwest late month. Would love an order of the Sunday CFS, normal through Aug. However global wind and others hint we are not done with AN heat in the Southeast. Hoping to get more rain showers while the ridge is centered out West. Guess we were due for a hot summer.

We probably need a new second half of 2022 Banter thread. Big college sports news rolling in, with conference shake-ups likely. Big 12 absorbing some Pac 12 is a sharp shift from previous speculation of the reverse. We take! SEC snagging some ACC would be big news. Makes some sense with I'm guessing more FB money in the SEC. Also talk of UNC going Big 10 which is a head scratcher. Duke UNC? Well, money would explain all of the above. Just have to unravel that path.