nrgjeff

They are in way better shape than me. I can watch college basketball, lol! How about Vanderbilt? Love how the odds makers treat Vandy like an Ivy League school. Yes it's an excellent academic university; but, it's also SEC!

ECMWF can't decide whether to bury that thing or bring it up with no cold air supply. Maybe the 12Z will offer some clarity. GFS/Canadian sure like it! Southeast ski areas would like it. I'm surprised to see Sugar is still making snow. Usually they punt by March 10, but perhaps they hope to benefit from the extended forecast. I did not check other areas, but Sugar generally takes care of their snow best late-season.

Middle Finger is also the NCAA selection committee to Kansas. West? Even after Houston lost. Really? Too lazy to use contingency bracket! So, that puts Kansas in a possible game with UCLA, in Las Vegas. No other 1-seed is so far from home. Midwest would have been KCMO which is basically a home game, but KU deserves it. Well Jax hopefully KCMO will welcome Auburn for some Regional action. Tennesse and Kentucky will have to travel a bit. Alabama has good locations but not an easy bracket. TA&M 7-seed is the other middle finger. Penn State got hosed there too 10-seed, so really a dual screw job. Both teams are basically playing a 4-seed first round. SMH

Yes @PowellVolz the warm mid-levels ML might have played a role in mitigating storm intensity in East Tenn. ML was even warmer AL/GA, but their surface was much warmer - netting greater CAPE. Then Kentucky got more dynamics and less warm ML, another net bullish outcome despite lower surface Ts. Southeast Tennessee had a little more action. AL/GA boundary that likes to wrap around the southern Apps lifted up into and through Chattanooga. We are lucky* it was not a few degrees warmer. Dews made it in here. *Layperson and Public perspective. Storm chasers might have a different view, haha! However that close to home, I'm with the Public.

Well there is one good thing about the lack of snow in the South. We stopped having heart burn a couple weeks ago. How about some March Madness? Lady Mocs (UT Chatt) are in the Women's Big Dance! Tonight I hope the men join them. Mocs have to win the SoCon Tourney to punch a ticket to the Big Dance. Game is 7p Eastern, 6p Central on ESPN+ but also the Main ESPN!

The above likely happened with non-thunderstorm winds ahead of the line. That area was always the ahead of the line non-thunderstorm winds. More later. This is a good example of the importance of communication. Could I have been more clear? I refer to Nashville Forecasters. Kayman refers to the City of Nashville. While I could have written more clearly, context clues are somewhat evident. Also it's common to refer to NWS offices just by their location. In the end despite parameters, OHX Forecasters and I were more correct than not. There is more to it than parameters. Note the minimum in Middle Tennessee compared to AL/GA. East Tenn is concentrated southeast Tenn. Still the bias east that OHX highlighted in red on the chart had some validity. By late morning it was apparent that the diurnal intensity max was going to be east. Pattern recognition is vital to add value over parameters and models. Moving along to the non-thunderstorm wind. It was impressive. Except for the Mountains, where we had the strong south winds through and below passes ahead of the line of storms/front, most of the strongest winds were behind the line. Once again pattern recognition says behind the line of storms, where the mixing is maximized behind the dry line. I never got the ahead of the line wording from some EM briefings (except for Mountains). Yes, it was breezy ahead of the line. However the strongest winds behind the line always seemed self-evident to me. Could be the advantage of Great Plains experience. Friday was unusual for here, but it is somewhat common in the Plains.

Nashville is just a hair east of the 10% hatched, and I agree. Lines up best with daytime heating going into afternoon. Also the Plateau elevation gives it better access to inflow wind. I don't normally share from EM briefings, but it's basically an adjusted 10% which is public on SPC. Please don't re-share though. Chart is just the diurnal / daytime heating timing. One could drag the red line through Chattanooga and even into northwest Georgia. Don't forget Sand Mountain, AL which is another elevated area. Reasoning below. Other considerations for more specific targets include North Georgia boundary (there as usual) and the Gulf moisture boundary lifting through Alabama. Both should get into Tennessee with a dynamic negatively tilted system (promotes lifting boundaries WF OFB or otherwise). Either intersecting with the prefrontal trough PFT is an area of interest. Interesting with temps/dews the PFT is more quasi-dry line DL today. Anything like a DL always piques my interest in the South. On the other hand very fast storm motion might favor the porch chase. Another scenario is a more forced line with fewer sups. Would favor straight line wind, but it can be particularly strong by leveraging the background wind. High Wind Warning things.

Tonight could be dicey in the Mid-South. Ingredients are there as a LLJ interacts with warm front. Mess mode could be a saver overnight. Thursday daylight is mainly an Arkansas (and points southwest) event. However an organized squall line QLCS should slam into the Mid-South late Thursday night. Line survives into Friday morning... Key to Friday is the LLJ hanging around long enough. Some NWP ejects the backed part of it in a hurry, which would still leave a line of thunderstorms and straight line wind. Low and mid-level winds remain strong all day Friday, which would support severe. Tornado question has a lot to do with if the backed portion of the LLJ remains in East Tennessee and North Georgia into Friday afternoon. I'm not sure for what I wish. Chaser on a Friday. Keep family safe any day. My gut says just wind East Tenn. Makes it a moot point.

Don't worry about Ryan Maue. How much of that is a forecast, and how much is his climate argument? He and Hothead are the best Twitter drama - angry and oppose each other. I like both their severe wx takes better. Maybe I just have severe wx on the brain! Stratosphere doubled down over the last few days. March is likely going to average cooler than normal. Just need the -PNA to relax for the Southeast, which it's forecast to do so. Arctic gets blocky. Could March observed actually be cooler than February observed? Not likely, but it has happened before. I'm not a fan of the Strato derailing severe; however, another shot at Southeast skiing (NC/WV) would be nice. Also the pattern might not wreck the Deep South toward April. In fact it could extend South season at the expense of the Plains.

Yes if those storms inflow does not get disrupted by central Alabama activity, they are near the other lifting boundary I wrote of at about now near the River. Prefrontal trough is also there near Corinth MS into Tenn, ahead of the main front. It's a boundary intersection. Also possible the north (Tenn Miss) and south (cental Bama) coexist with the SSW LLJ vs one from the SSE. Again central Bama has the intersection of pre-trough convergence and Gulf front/OFB.

Tennessee was going to hang on. Pain of two buzzers makes strong motivation. Plus yeah, #1 on the road is a recipe for oof! Kansas fans know that well, haha! So we have a hot race setting up in the SEC. They talk A&M and Bama, but we have enough games left for Tennessee to be in the mix. Big 12 is similar. Kansas got some help when Texas lost. We still need to gain a game.

Radar loop @Holston_River_Rambler shared on the previous page still has validity. Some other CAMs have shown it off and on. Central Alabama! Gulf front was reinforced last night by outflow OFB from showers yesterday. It is lifting northward in Alabama. While some sort of east-west boundary made it to northwest Alabama, differential heating/dews is evident central Alabama. Prefrontal convergence is also ahead of the main front - Alabama Mississippi border as usual. As for the positive tilt, it probably mitigates some risk. Enhanced is right. No MDT today. Also the LLJ is lifting away, which could keep even central Bama in check. However I always watch boundary intersections out ahead of the synoptic ones. All that said, with greater instability, positive tilt can go in the South and Ohio Valley. Plains is more fickle needing neutral due to dewpoint trajectories. Here southwest is still moist flow.

Oh my! Day 2 the 10% hatched creeps up close to that flatter terrain of northwest Alabama. Could happen. I still like more cental Alabama in my post a few minutes ago above. We shall see. I will add that Jax is right about East Tennessee this week. Powell covers the general issues / climo (worth a read above) and Jax has the Thursday specific weather.

Thanks @PowellVolz I couldn't have said it better. Gonna award the above, Post of the Month. Could be Post of the Year, but I have only skimmed winter stuff. Severe is easier to follow since it's a niche topic. OK for tonight, Wednesday, unlucky timing for the Mid South is overnight. Looks like lots of blobs, but some of those will be genuine supercells. Not ideal overnight. Flooding will be a problem too, esp where multiple cells train. Thursday is my day of interest. Trough is positively tilted, which also veers Tennesse low level winds, and should keep Tennessee mainly straight line winds. Could be strong and plenty of it though. Alabama is a little more interesting with higher temps/dews and instability. Showers today (Wednesday) ensure the pattern recognition Deep South (DS) boundary lifts north Thursday. South if it low level winds may be more straight south and stronger. DS boundary intersection with front should be an area of interest. Some CAMs already have a right mover in that spot. Day ahead one should not trust that location, or even the outcome. However it means CAMs "see" a boundary intersection. Will it happen? Technically that's south of our Region. We'll leave the Spann jacket, tie, button and suspenders forecast to the Southeast region.

Little change to thinking for Thursday. Trough is going in a positive tilt direction. However plenty of turning with height is evident, and it is quite enough for the South or Ohio Valley. Key will be if this verifies, or something like it. Perturbation is shown on the low-level trough, which enhances low level flow in North Alabama. Forecast 925 mb winds are shown; however, the 850 mb chart (not shown) doesn't echo it (adds uncertainty). Also not shown - but on the bullish side - 700/500 mb vort max and new southern stream 250 mb jet (south of the main OV jet stream). Day 4 is still too early to dig into such mesoscale details. However it is what one would look for, if seeking a 30% from SPC. Broad pattern wind fields and thermodynamics are there. Still a southern stream wave is required in the positive tilt environment. Also yet to show up is an obvious pre-frontal trough and Gulf front intersection, though some NWP has hints. That's a Day 2 deal really. Other options include tomorrow (Day 3) NWP going rain-out or poor wave timing. Just 15% is prudent for Day 4 today.

Oh man I feel for the Vols. So two buzzer losses in a week? Vandy is tough vs an in-state rival. However my Kansas/Tenn heart was hurt more by the Mizzou one. Wichita State also blew 2-3 leads in 10 days, but not as heartbreaking, obvious with a couple minutes left each time. Guess what? Wichita State held on Sunday. So, I predict better times for the Vols based on the Shocker analog. Kansas on the road Saturday, check. Wichita State young team battles at home, check. How about them Chiefs!?! So Chattanooga didn't get our bowling snowball. However this KC fan in Chattanooga got his Superbowl win. We can't control the weather; but as Travis Kelce says, You gotta Fight for your Right to Paarrrty!

Wednesday looks Mid South and into our Region late; but, I focus on Thursday which should be daytime and my neck of the woods. Wednesday plays a role with the lead wave to start moisture return. Not often we get a primer day this early in the season. Thursday should be ready to go! Wind fields most of the way up strengthen and turn with height. LLJ could get funky with wave timing but it's too early for that type of stuff or hodos. Said LLJ could be more unfettered south, with a southern upper wave... Which brings me to surface pattern recognition. Should be a Gulf front in the Deep South (well south of WF) intersecting with a pre-frontal trough (esp if southern wave). While the ingredients are there, SPC is right to hold 15%* instead of 30 percent. Other (more bearish) scenarios include rain-out or upper wave timing subsidence during the day Thursday. *Sunday 4-8 day

MRX probability chart is reasonable for an event 60 hours out with borderline temps. Keep in mind probability considers all parameters, climo and time to event. Probability 3 days out is usually bearish compared to deterministic numerical models. MRX rightfully blanks Chattanooga, and does include the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe I'm biased in favor because it has things in common with my longer post bottom of page 20 this topic. PS. I'll post in the event topic on Friday. If I post too early, I'll surely jinx it.

Jog northwest indeed is on recent model runs (NWP) 12Z Thursday. NWP could still jog a little more northwest into Friday, but from there it should stabilize. For some more NW is good. For others here, it's already approaching the sweet spot. Inverted trough helps low level convergence. Mountains also play a role, kind of like an inverted lee trough. All help surface convergence. Cold core could fix most problems if the temp is 40 at the beginning. Exception is Chattanooga because a northeast wind is downslope, and keeps it warmer. Knoxville NE wind is basically neutral. Yeah gentle downslope down the Great Valley, but not like off the Mountains for Chatty. I'm not too worried about time of day yet. If snow starts sticking overnight, it'll be fine in the morning. There's some causation there, but mostly correlation; if snow is sticking, it's cold enough. Cold, not just existing snow, would be the common helper. I think that concludes my eight cents worth, two cents on four above thoughts. I'm pretty optimistic for much of East Tennessee outside of Chattanooga (though we could) and even the Plateau. My gut says this will turn out from Knoxville east and north. Given the northwest NWP trends, the Cumberland Plateau should get snow too. GFS Georgia lala land aside, 12Z Thursday NWP (06Z Euro) keeps the TROWAL feature* going up that way. Finally we all talk about a little expansion on the north side of the snow shield. * See WAA from the northeast into the cold core at 850/700 mb on most NWP.

12Z ECMWF wants to bowling ball East Tennessee with snow, including Chattanooga, Saturday night. Today as I write (Wednesday) it is the 3-year anniversary of the February 2020 bowling snowball. I will jump into the real / pinned forecast thread on Thursday if the above holds. Chiefs also won the Superbowl in 2020. I'll take an order of both snow and KC Superbowl champions. I'm not sure what's longer odds. KC vs the Philly defense, or snow in Chattanooga. Y'all know the answer!

Nice spy chase @Jed33 lol! Did you give them the Finger? I never saw it but read it passed over Tenn. In more concerning news, Kansas lost our 4th conference game at Iowa St. We must right the ship vs Texas in Lawrence tonight! SEC is in action Tuesday and Wednesday. Tennessee and Alabama play next week, so the SEC race is still pretty open.

Severe wx enthusiasts need the next SSW to fail as miserably as the last. A SSW follow through would crush the early season. Not in time for winter snow, just in time to make spring blow (chunks not severe).

My two cents. Yes the cold will undercut. Mid South and western third of our Region could surprise one day next week. Upper Plateau could / should do so as well. I don't about the I-81 corridor though. My other penny is that Chattanooga will stay well above freezing when it counts, so wake me up the next chance of severe.

I've not been on the forum as much as I'd like due to mainly kids activities. Performing arts is steady through the year. Nobody told me basketball is 3X as busy as track or cross country, lol! @Holston_River_Rambler good to know things are better with family. I guess health or accident, but I don't find the OP. Regardless, the power of prayer does not require details. On lighter topics, SEC vs Big 12 challenge is this weekend! I have to pick Auburn and Alabama on the road. Auburn will bounce back from Wed. WV is a tough venue, but their press is weak this year. Tennessee will win at home, but Texas is tough. TX Tech vs LSU is and should be relegated to ESPNU, lol. Now for my Big 12 picks. TCU and Iowa State are capable of road wins, but it depends on which Miss State and Mizzou show up. K-State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor should win at home. Kansas is better than Kentucky this year, but a road game is probably not where Kansas gets back on track. Coach Cal often says Kentucky plays better on the road. Well, they'll bring that intensity to home court between blue bloods. I'll go Kentucky W and be pleasantly surprised if Kansas snaps a 3-game losing streak at Rupp Arena. None of the above are recommendations, lol. At any rate, I show a 5-5 tie in the SEC Big 12 Challenge 2023.

I don't know Larry Cosgrove personally, but he has a nice presence on social media - a rare and refreshing occurrence in our era of cocky novices on social media. At any rate I have traded in my MLK Day cold flip for 2-3 more weeks of warm. Oh Alaska trough! Always a chance again in Feb. However years with extreme cold dumps sometimes can't fully reload. Including both the 500 mb and the surface projection.