nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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If the 12Z Tuesday forecast holds. Saturday is going to be a day. CSU model is probably keying in on outflow in Bama. Plus that surface low. Mass response (LLJ other levels) has trended up on Saturday due to the more obvious 2nd wave at the upper levels. Also the reason for the surface low. It's all connected.
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Saturday the South is going to get its own short-wave. Vort lobe should eject from the Plains trough. If trends hold we have less morning rain forecast. First short-wave is long gone over the Great Lakes. Two in a row is usually heavy rain, but not with this separation by almost a day. Instead we may have a couple outflow boundaries cooking all morning. Seems early in the season, but that's what might happen. Then by Saturday afternoon.. I will be very interested in any intersection of outflow boundary and pre-frontal trough. Such surface details can't be discerned 5 days out, but the background parameter space will be robust. Outlook for Saturday
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I'm putting in an order for an outflow boundary in North Alabama. Sure as hell is not a forecast 6 days out! Reality is we get what we get and we don't pitch a fit. Could still be a Deep South MCS nixes Saturday. Though Friday looks robust into the Mid-South, Saturday is my main interest. Looks like two pieces of energy. Friday lobe ejects from the Mid-South to the Midwest. Another jet streak and lobe of energy is forecast into the Deep South on Saturday. Outflow placement is highly dependent on Friday - which is still Day 5. Honestly I would have waited on 30% for Saturday. Friday is legit 30% though. I know parameters are nuts, but the other solution is MCS rainout. Upside of course is less am rain and reload.
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Models refuse to connect the warm Strato with the 500 mb level. Could be yet another one that just fires blanks. Next path to cod might be the MJO and increasing GLAAM. However by late March I don't want that. Who really wants that? We're ready for spring. I'm ready for other things associated with spring too!
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Time period from about March 15 looks active. Some models have a classic Southern slam. Others bring it out in two pieces with slow moving heavy rain. 10 days out there is little else to discuss yet.
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Sorry y'all I brought the synoptic wind from Kansas.
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Indeed we have more cold fronts coming. I may be over 32 but it's not over for the Valley. Start with later this week. Then the strato forecast is back after a flop. See how that goes later in March. In between the two? See severe wx thread for next week too.
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Yeah I'm over talking about 32 deg. Let's talk about Td 68 deg. And off to the severe wx thread.
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Tuesday will likely be intense along and south of US-82 where breaks in clouds prime things. Even possible up to I-22. Basic pattern recognition shows Tuesday will be an event. Details are TBD. NAM will become useful inside 36 hours. Same with the ARW. Should be 24-36 hours for FV3. I'd wait until 12-24 hours for the HRRR and RRFS (if it even updates).
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Well then, getting right into the heart of our Regional forum. Need the Western Crew to join the party!
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Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical.
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Tee it up! South is probably appropriate with multiple rounds. Wherever the outflow sets up, is gonna light up!
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Following some cold this weekend and again late next week.. All weekly charts have a marked shift to trough west SER for the middle of March. Fly in the ointment is an attempted active strato. Otherwise it could be stormy Too early to know if that's the MId-South or MIdwest early season chasing, but buckle up!
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I chase at night. I chase in the jungle. I chase in the hills. I buy stocks during bear markets. All about risk tolerance. Oh but 3/4 are not true above. Also it's too early to time it.
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GFS has missed the system every run since the one posted above. Meanwhile the ECMWF and every other ensemble or AI model has it. So.. the GFS is trash. ECMWF is centered around Tuesday night around our region. Could be late Tuesday could be early Wednesday. First week or March is well within climo. It's not often but it happens.
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Per the severe wx thread, got chances both week 2 and week 3. But, a big thing here, could get cold again in between. Can we do the snow and thunder thing? I'm half serious. Models are all over the place with a muddled MJO. Are we doing Maritime Sub or West Pac?
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Thank you @jaxjagman re KU but I got Auburn winning it all. If so hopefully Pearl pulls out an Israel flag too. Can I say that in Weather? Cut down the nets while singing War Eagle and Am Yisrael Chai! Alright to the severe. Yeah next week still has the signal. MJO and others may not stick in the same phase for long. That said it's possible to reload week 3 per @vortexse93 chart. Temps could really swing around. Maybe snow in between? Just kidding!
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It's 10 days out but most models have a Mid-South and Midwest banger (maybe even into Bama) the first week of March. Climo would support such a system if the wx pattern lines up. March madness starts early in the South. Since Kansas looks irrelevant this year (despite the yuge win today) my semi-moratorium on pre-Final Four chasing is not valid this year. Chase early and often - especially after the time change. However the system in question is still before any change. Plains may struggle later in the year too. All signals point to attempt the South. Patience is not a virtue this year. Chase early.
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Nice to see the satellite meteorology trend is holding here. Mine was just from UCAR/NCAR. Satellite page: RAP Real-Time Weather And here's the northern stream energy for tonight. Looks juicier on RGB than vis or even IR. We go with what we like!
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Yea and @John1122 will get six inches of Upper Plateau magic. Really light and fluffy feathers.
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Just shy of 2 inches, and temp above freezing. Need some help in Chatty. Come on little guy, Snow Grogu, blossom and grow. You are our last great hope! Daytime cloud physics / RGB. Dark teal west of Nashville is liquid clouds, so tough to get more now. Maroon west of Clarksville is even lower clouds. Thicker clouds are intuitive and orange shades are ice or mixed.
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East Tennessee needs some love from that back area of lift and enhanced mid-level clouds. Likely some sort of elevated secondary frontogenesis. Some models have it filling in a bit mid-morning (later, and for East Tenn). Others (damn NAM) don't do anything for anyone. Satellite is the nighttime cloud physics. For a while I still preferred traditional IR, and it's still my goto for a quick view. Cloud physics shows greater detail though. How juicy is that in-between cloud on IR? Cloud physics helps hunting for mid-level hope!
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Better late than never! Chattanooga always looked good on the models to me. Not a big snow, but 1-2 inches. We have about an inch now. Looks like a pause is incoming. Could get one more encore, from which I usually don't expect much. However if enough mid-level moisture hangs around, and surface temps stay cold, maybe later today.
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I like the models that bring snow into Chatty. Not a wish-cast, just makes sense with cold enough temperature profile and partial thickness. Surface could get up to 38 but that no problem, all else in place. Plus the surface will probably stay colder than forecast during precip. Now, the lee of the mountains. That's some cruel and unusual punishment - twice counting Jan. 10! Some high-res models agree with the snow shadow early. Then perhaps some NWFS will save last-minute when the lee becomes the windward side. Wind shift as system passes.
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I'm at a loss why WPC and OHX/MRX almost blank southeast Tennessee. Whatever computer generated graphics HSV used has a little bit more light snow into Chatty. Seems like it'll be cold enough for several hours. Strength of cold airmass and high press should hold low level (all level) cold air. GFS and CMC do so. NAM and EC mysteriously blank Chatty. Or they're going climo. Temp profiles look as good or better than Jan. 10 when we pulled snow out of messy hat though. Yeah it's a month later - but it looks cold enough to me!
