nrgjeff
-
Posts
3,985 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nrgjeff
-
Steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps at 700 mb and above on Thursday may promote golf balls. Who moved the Masters north? Also the low levels of forecast soundings are inverted V which allows for some gusty wind. Valid Thursday April 10
-
This April 20 severe wx system keeps getting pushed back. When did severe become like snow? This after Chatty got two nice snows, lol! Quiet weather pattern may be more favorable for star gazing and getting high on April 20. We'll see. End of April temps may get back to above normal. Seems like we get this mid-April cool snap every year. Then we can start Real Spring.
-
Might be recharging for this afternoon. Wind shear is definitely there with the consta-LLJ. See if destabilization can happen both sides of the boundary. However I'm a lot more interested in Saturday when I'm free. Final wave ejecting is usually boom or bust. Wind speed shear will be plentiful. Turning with height is just barely enough; it will require backing at the surface. Also need a prefrontal trough ahead of that CF. Both depend on an Arkansas surface low for Mississippi chasing. Thursday MD Day 3 Saturday seems mostly synoptic front based. Need ENH across Mississippi but SPC might not be feeling the pre-frontal trough.
-
Southeast Tennessee could have record high temps Friday. Then after the front..
-
Tonight is a rare instance where the lead supercells choked off the line behind, rather than coexisting with the line or being absorbed. Probably just right (just wrong) flow angle crossing boundaries. Line doesn't catch up. Sups go nuts! Re Arkansas I saw some streams with radar/locations in corner put together like Zoom. Definitely different cells. Multiple damaging tornadoes were in progress. Can't link preview. I won't try to rate strength, but they were all big specimens.
-
Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy! Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer! In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four!
-
High Risk of a QLCS! I'll believe these discrete cells ahead when I see them. RRFS is on an island all alone. Then the HRRR today wants to go in Mid-Tenn. Low level shear is wild but the mid-levels are too warm. What's the MLB and NBA TV schedule this evening? Blue Bloods reruns on Ion channel 3.3 in KCHA. I hope my cynicism assures some who are storm anxious. That said, follow official sources if it gets hairy tonight!
-
Well then. Looks like SPC is going with that gnarly RRFS which is phat supercells all over the Mid-South. We'll see. Training supercells part is pretty likely regardless of how discrete. Should be an absolute mess. Valid Wednesday (and night) April 2
-
After the severe weather and flooding this week, weather pattern may turn cool and quiet for much of the rest of April. First of all Wednesday looks a lot like Sunday with Mid-South severe rolling into Tenn. SPC chart even looks like a copy/paste. Upper jet is stronger. LLJ will depend on wave timing. Ditto Thursday. One real problem with the LLJ, while fluctuating, constantly runs up and over a quasi-stationary boundary. WPC forecast QPF unfortunately could be reasonable. And now what might help quiet things down after the weekend.
-
Yeah I'd rather bark at my TV both Tennessee and Auburn, than bark at cells going linear too fast, or getting blocked at the River. Charles Barkley had very deep thoughts about the first half and taking care of the ball. In the game of basketball, the most important thing is the basketball! Classic Chuck. Anyway, still not MDT. Just a huge wind 45% no hatch, lol. TOR is still 10% hatched. I agree that hodographs will enlarge this evening. In some cases lines can actually break up and go super. I'm not feeling it today, but QLCS tornadoes are quite possible overnight.
-
That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features.
-
Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though. Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing? Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady. Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure. That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today!
-
Thank you @jaxjagman we can talk about it in here because it impacts forecast accuracy. It’s not really political. Biggest immediate concern is only one ballon a day from some Northern Plains locations vs the usual twice a day. That will hurt NWP performance. Then all the other staffing issues are awful too. We shall improvise, adapt, overcome. And watch Heartbreak Ridge, ha!
-
So far the 12Z CAMs continue to show the results of a poorly timed short-wave upstairs. The latter can be modeled well 36 hours out. Midday Sunday wave does not fire, and just pulls the LLJ away. Late Sunday short-wave tries to fire in Ark. but the LLJ is shunted off to the east. It results in one of multiple failure modes. Sups come off the Ozark Plateau and die in the Delta (lower elevation) under what's left of the cap. Sups go instaline forced on the back CF because the lead pre-frontal trough failed. Finally too much junk precip. Never really goes, but that's the least likely failure scenario. My initial excitement about Mid-South boundaries has faded. Looks like a total waste of a perfectly timed 250 mb jet coming out of AR/LA. Could still be enough, but doubtful during the day. Unfortunately could be at night, but I'm really not that worried. Note that the SPC is considering a Moderate at the update time. Everyone go with official information. I'm just being skeptical. Funny the last 3 months I've been optimistic on snow and pessimistic on severe. Well 2025 is another weird year overall. Midwest synoptic boundaries may end up the place to be, despite less CAPE. Dynamics and kinematics look good up that way. SPC Is talkin' poss. upgrade Mid-South but I'd be looking at the Midwest. Again, go with official info. not my poor attitude!
-
I'm skeptical of the tornado threat all the way to I-65 Sunday night. Feels like maybe sups in Arkansas grow upscale into a QLCS in West Tenn. Few tors possible out there. Perhaps just straight line in Middle Tenn. Hopefully East Tenn is just good sleeping without a sound machine to make the thunder. Refer to official forecasts though!
-
Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening. Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet. Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux.
-
Sunday inhiation could be as far northwest as the Ozarks of Missouri. We'll see. Maybe Saturday night will push boundaries southeast. However warm mid-levels may prevent much Sunday morning precip. A clean warm sector would get started well west of our Region. Current thinking is that Missouri and Arkansas Ozarks go late Sunday afternoon. Might take until evening to reach Kentucky and Tennessee. Parameters will be robust, but the greatest forcing could be north. We'll see if winds aloft stay strong and if any boundaries can sink in here. Also the notorious secondary warm front may lift north into the Mid-South. Synoptic WF looks north of the Ohio River. So many questions and it's just Day 4 - feels more like winter forecasting. My interest in chasing is starting to wane. Overnight? Long way off, and I don't feel like doing overnights yet this early in the season. Plus the weather will be gorgeous in East Tennessee this weekend. Finally the Elite Eight looks, actually elite this year.
-
Things like that happen in central Oklahoma too. Why do people keep moving back to Moore? Excellent schools sells houses! Anyway the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts still look similar. Details are TBD. I just want to figure out Sunday first, ha!
-
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We might need a Spring Banter thread. Anyway the Day 3 looks like a Dinosaur Attack!
-
Follow up to my post above. April looks above normal, but not 2011 crazy. Still holds. Now we might get a good chunk of that activity the first 7-10 days of April. Then the quieter ridge pattern is forecast. Here is the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts, which basically goes until April 8. Keep in mind that could go Midwest instead of Mid-South. We'll see.
-
Glad we have a weekend outlook. Perhaps I can stay out of that toxic off-topic Politics thread and talk Weather over here. The case for more severe, ha! ECMWF has some odd low coming out of Texas trying to gum up the works for the weekend. However it should shear out a bit on Saturday. in May I'd worry about it wrecking the set-up. In March I believe the mid-latitude jet stream will assert its control. Go GFS! So the Plains gets the Day Before the Day. Hopefully just right showers linger into the South. Need outflow boundaries - not a nutty MCC washout. Midwest looks conditional, but the 15% is justified in case of a huge warm sector. Mid-South probably has the best odds, but I agree 15% for all of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday.
-
Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011. April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011.
-
Excellent storm mode is WASTED on pathetic instability. That's my post. Glad I didn't chase. Back to betting and basketball.
-
Sunday refuses to show a chase target, as of Friday evening. SPC is worried about the cold front, but I think we'll have a prefrontal trough. Should have outflow from early day showers. Problem is it may all be too cool. It's March not May. I believe there could be enough turning from 850-500 mph iff boundaries would intersect properly in an unstable airmass. Otherwise it'll look like North Alabama on Saturday. What about Mississippi? Needs quality boundaries. Juuust enough turning with height is conditional on locally higher SRH. SPC Day 3 update mentions north Mississippi but they don't sound confident. Looks about as low energy as Kansas or Memphis basketball. Cynical basketball metaphors are a risk for a few more days.
-
Sugar takes care of their snow. I figure this is the last weekend though. Meanwhile the forever cold that was forecast is down to 5 days next week. Perhaps we can warm up going into April.
