Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,738

  • Joined

  • Last visited

2 Followers

About nrgjeff

Contact Methods

  • AIM
    Twitter @nrgjeff
  • Website URL
    http://www.linkedin.com/in/wjeffhenergy

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCHA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

Recent Profile Visitors

8,925 profile views
  1. nrgjeff
    View outside the window can explain a lot. Daniel has snow. I see blue sky. Both were forecast. Though my head knows, my heart remains really bearish for the entire winter. Thanksgiving we could have severe weather! I suppose that means snow the following week? Just not IMBY. It's also possible we're both right. North of I-40 could benefit from cold intrusions. South of I-40 we'll look forward to severe weather all winter. My more serious post this morning is in the December thread. Still bearish, but maybe not wall-to-wall torch. I believe the SER is the primary winter pattern. Right now we're going into the secondary pattern. Cold, with intermittent warm severe wx.
  2. nrgjeff
    Four typhoons in three weeks raked the Philippines and then dissipated in the vicinity of China. All that energy is maintained - somewhere. My going thinking is that this time of year that's not a ridge over China. Instead it amped up the East Asia pattern. Trough is in China under Siberia ridge. Reflection downstream is the same for the US and Canada. It's probably temporary. I remain quite mild for the winter. Caution is that La Nina seems to have stalled or even reversed. La Nina failures would not surprise me with the warmer background state. Still, reverting to a stubborn SER is my prognosis.
  3. nrgjeff
    Now the 12Z Euro Op. has an I-40 snow slider around December 3. Of course nothing in my neck of the woods. So we get a couple very cold weeks in December. Then torch bal-winter. Like 2005-2006 warm fall, cold December, January thaw starts around Christmas. For a less pessimistic experience from me, we could get a winter mid-range forecast thread going. Unless this is it? Then I'll try not to post torch thoughts past Day 15. Yeah I'm still not over the January snow. Six inches within 15 miles. Blanked IMBY.
  4. nrgjeff
    AI versions tend to favor the colder GFS over the ECMWF. If the EC ends up winning, we can look forward to a forced line of severe thunderstorms - with zero separation of cells. Meh.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yeah the mornings are ludicrous. GFS is a little cooler than the EPS. Either way we should get the nights and mornings under control even if temps remain AN.
  6. nrgjeff
    I see nothing to be optimistic about in the mid-range or long-range. Getting dry again. Warm all winter.
  7. nrgjeff
    Yeah the primary pattern is super warm. Secondary pattern will be very subdued this year, fewer weeks and weaker anomamies. I expect 3-4 cool weeks overall, perhaps over just a couple periods. Otherwise the SER wants to lock in hard. Mid-South might get one or two winter wx events. North of I-40 and along I-81 could get things on northwest flow. I truly expect to be blanked in southeast Tenn.
  8. nrgjeff
    Caught some flooding and desert mudslides in Israel on X. I follow one account that is 100% weather. How they managed to not comment on the war is amazing. I guess, never stop chasing? Great weather stuff straight from Israel!
  9. nrgjeff
    La Nina and boiling everywhere else. I have forever SER with only 1-2 weeks of cooler weather twice this winter. Wake me up for severe. SST chart
  10. nrgjeff
    Re Shawn's post. These mountains are interesting every time. We really didn't have the mountain wave set-up, no inversion. Perhaps that means the mountains blocked like a good offensive line until the wind shifted. I had some 30 mph gusts of wind with the 8:30 Eastern band that went through Chatty; trees blew, carwash on the windows. Only lasted a few minutes - regrettable since I was busy. Wind has returned now but no rain, just mostly cloudy. We get that all the time in winter. Still the novelty of Helene being a TS in Tennessee is something else. It happens but it's rare. All that said our thoughts are with people facing much worse situations from the Mountains to the Coast, wind to flooding. I figure the Helene name will be retired.
  11. nrgjeff
    From Nashville: Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the center of Helene is north of Knoxville, with very low pressure readings across Middle Tennessee including 989mb at Nashville and 987.8mb at Livingston. Although not records and just outside the top 10, these are still unusually low pressure readings for our area. Here's a list of the Top 10 lowest pressure readings at Nashville: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/pressure_BNA Top 10 Lowest & Highest Pressure Readings at Nashville (weather.gov)
  12. nrgjeff
    The link does not work. Here is copy and paste. TS hasn't been that close to me in several years. I also added a capture from SPC surface analysis.
  13. nrgjeff
    I think we had 20-25 mph about 30 minutes ago with a heavier cell. It has moved on and the wind died down in Chatty. Kind of hoping the wind picks up again, but that might have been it. I was busy and didn't record anything. While 25 mph is meh, I would like to document TS Helene. Rare to get anything greater than a TD in Tenn. We'll see maybe background wind midday.
  14. nrgjeff
    Yes one reason they can even do hurricane recon is that the majority of the kinetic energy is horizontal. Yeah 140 mph in this case! Of course they get both vertical and horizontal turbulence. Usually even the eye wall does not have the vertical velocity of say a raging Plains supercell. Hot towers do though. And they are going to get roughed up by horizonal wind anyway. Add the vertical bumps and it's too much even for those hunters. Getting brief wind gusts to 25 mph at my house. Mostly just vertical moderate rain. Ben raining all night. Back to something @Carvers Gap wrote about the wind above the trees, I fully expected that last night but not much in Chatty. Usually at night for me, but yeah it's a thing with fall and winter systems, and then the LLJ spring systems.
  15. nrgjeff
    Well now my friends, this is very unusual. Mr. Teasdale from the original Red Dawn. High wind warning in Vols orange. TS warning in Alabama more than Georgia color. Does that mean anything for Saturday? Then there are models with a narrow swath of 50-60 mph winds between Chatty and Knox. Is that the PNG above that does not open? I'll believe it when I see it.. But for work, I have adjusted the Def Con accordingly. Good night to read A Wrinkle in Time. On a dark and stormy night.. Book specifically says it's a tropical system. It's ON!!
×
×
  • Create New...