nrgjeff
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About nrgjeff
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We might need a Spring Banter thread. Anyway the Day 3 looks like a Dinosaur Attack!
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Follow up to my post above. April looks above normal, but not 2011 crazy. Still holds. Now we might get a good chunk of that activity the first 7-10 days of April. Then the quieter ridge pattern is forecast. Here is the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts, which basically goes until April 8. Keep in mind that could go Midwest instead of Mid-South. We'll see.
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Glad we have a weekend outlook. Perhaps I can stay out of that toxic off-topic Politics thread and talk Weather over here. The case for more severe, ha! ECMWF has some odd low coming out of Texas trying to gum up the works for the weekend. However it should shear out a bit on Saturday. in May I'd worry about it wrecking the set-up. In March I believe the mid-latitude jet stream will assert its control. Go GFS! So the Plains gets the Day Before the Day. Hopefully just right showers linger into the South. Need outflow boundaries - not a nutty MCC washout. Midwest looks conditional, but the 15% is justified in case of a huge warm sector. Mid-South probably has the best odds, but I agree 15% for all of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday.
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Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011. April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011.
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Excellent storm mode is WASTED on pathetic instability. That's my post. Glad I didn't chase. Back to betting and basketball.
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Sunday refuses to show a chase target, as of Friday evening. SPC is worried about the cold front, but I think we'll have a prefrontal trough. Should have outflow from early day showers. Problem is it may all be too cool. It's March not May. I believe there could be enough turning from 850-500 mph iff boundaries would intersect properly in an unstable airmass. Otherwise it'll look like North Alabama on Saturday. What about Mississippi? Needs quality boundaries. Juuust enough turning with height is conditional on locally higher SRH. SPC Day 3 update mentions north Mississippi but they don't sound confident. Looks about as low energy as Kansas or Memphis basketball. Cynical basketball metaphors are a risk for a few more days.
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Sugar takes care of their snow. I figure this is the last weekend though. Meanwhile the forever cold that was forecast is down to 5 days next week. Perhaps we can warm up going into April.
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SPC extended the Slight south at 20Z and posted the watch. Looks like storms crapped out. Odd, because I wasn't chasing. That was such a Jeff is chasing move. Sunday has become more interesting with a bigger warm sector and farther north boundaries. Now the low level winds are veered off. However, the upper level winds are almost from due west, not southwest. That's just enough turning, esp near surface boundaries with enhanced SRH. Way too early to place those, but pre-dawn rain could set the table. SPC outlook I infer is the southern and northern envelope of where said boundaries could land. Issued Thursday valid for Sunday
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Warm front WF is pretty obvious in northern Illinois. Less discernable, but subtle, an outflow boundary OFB has sagged south from there. Intersection of that OFB with dry-line like feature (sfc trough) out of Missouri should trigger discrete supercells in central Illionois this afternoon. WF could also recharge / destabilize again late. Plenty of cross boundary flow at the mid-levels favors discrete mode. Moisture is a little bit last minute, but cool mid-levels will promote enough instability.
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Sunday will also depend on who's still in the NCAA Tournament, lol! Has the potential to work because 500 mb is almost straight west. Don't need 850 mb textbook backed. Again it'd be a gem late season. We'll see in March. Need a juicy boundary.
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Wednesday looks meh. Later in the season I'd hope for a mesoscale accident, but NCAA play-in games look like a better option. Sunday Deep South is looking more poorly oriented. Still early in the season, but I have concerns SSW could kill the first half of April. Later in the season a -AO can help get the jet stream going. This early, it's crap.
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My device almost didn't survive the last two posts. Absolutely hideous for storm interests! In 7-10 days the window slams shut for perhaps a while.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Auburn will be prepared though. I have Auburn and Duke on two brackets. Alabama depends on who shows up mentally. Kansas will lose round 1, probably won't even get to the weekend. Tennessee will probably make the Sweet 16 and then break Vols hearts. -
High Risk and PDS boxes are warranted. Ugly afternoon on tap.
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March 14-15 Severe Weather Outbreak
nrgjeff replied to HillsdaleMIWeather's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
If chasing it's a good idea to pick a side of the Mississippi River (or Missouri River, any river) and stick to it. Don't get into a safety jam because of the River. Always have TWO escape routes. I like east and south. River typically cuts off one, but I can't accept that. So, chase is done before the river. Otherwise one can wait on the Illinois side (other side of whatever river) and let the storms come. Better yet, stay home and enjoy college basketball.
