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IUsedToHateCold

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Everything posted by IUsedToHateCold

  1. IUsedToHateCold
    LWX stingy on the freeze warnings as usual. No way IAD doesn’t freeze. Probably BWI and RIC too.
  2. IUsedToHateCold
    Freeze warnings out to down Alabama with this airmass. I’m biased, but this is going to overperform
  3. IUsedToHateCold
    About the closest to wall-to-wall cold I’ve ever seen was growing up in Massachusetts in the late 80s/early 90s. I haven’t seen it in Maryland since I moved here in 2011.
  4. IUsedToHateCold
    I think I’m more willing to attribute this anomalous October weather to the volcano. It would have been nice to see this in January, but I don’t think it’s happening. The -NAO/+PNA pattern is not going to stick around, and when it goes we torch. Chances of that happening in winter go up each day we don’t flip. I think if we could get that flip to happen in the next couple of weeks we could have the type of January you are talking about, but the window is closing fast.
  5. IUsedToHateCold
    I like my chances for a first freeze for IAD, BWI, and RIC
  6. IUsedToHateCold
    Current GFS also puts RIC in the possibility category for the next week (it has an even lower temperature than BWI for Wed morning)
  7. IUsedToHateCold
    Local weatherbug has 34. Decent frost on the roof and the car.
  8. IUsedToHateCold
    Today very well may be the warmest day at DCA this month.
  9. IUsedToHateCold
    I had to go out for a walk tonight just to take in the clear sky.
  10. IUsedToHateCold
    Great write-up, I agree with just about everything (perhaps a warmer anomaly for November and January). I do think there will be 2-3 weeks in late Dec-early Jan that could be productive for us in the snowfall department. It's a roll of the dice.
  11. IUsedToHateCold
    Why would we believe it wouldn't? Add that the current CONUS temperature anomalies for this month look nothing like that map of October '00. We're seeing above average anomalies in the west/mid-west this year. I actually cannot remember a month where we had wall-to-wall below average temperature departures for the entire CONUS in the past 10 years.
  12. IUsedToHateCold
    Could the GFS have been right? Heavy rain doesn’t look to let up soon.
  13. IUsedToHateCold
    Yeah nobody is talking about the rain for NC and SC, with the modeled track it’s bound to be a flooding hazard
  14. IUsedToHateCold
    I'm not sure about snowfall, but this is what I'm currently thinking for temperature departures: November: torch (maybe warmest ever?) December: -1 to -2 January: 0 to +1 February: +4 March: -2 The thinking is an eastern trough in the first half of meteorological winter with a ridge in the second half, with the trough returning in March.
  15. IUsedToHateCold
    BWI- 10/25 IAD - 10/24 DCA -12/2 RIC - 10/25 Peak Oct temp at DCA- 84 degrees
  16. IUsedToHateCold
    This is the weirdest modeled track for a tropical system I’ve ever seen
  17. IUsedToHateCold
    Hopefully this morning’s cool temperatures will help kick things off around here so our peak isn’t in mid November and I’m not cleaning up leaves at Christmas like last year.
  18. IUsedToHateCold
    September is our driest month climatologically. It'll get wetter in October.
  19. IUsedToHateCold
    Oscillations aside, the tonga eruption is going to be the x-factor in this year’s prediction. Given this, I would predict the weather will likely be more abnormal than usual in either a good or bad way for our subforum. It’s less likely to trend closer to the average, IMO.
  20. IUsedToHateCold
    Notice windows fogged up then stepped outside, feels like a sauna out there. Local weatherbug shows dew point of 75
  21. IUsedToHateCold
    Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty.
  22. IUsedToHateCold
    Easily could see an October with at least one 90 degree day early in the month followed by wintery precip for some places late in the month. Would be the kiss of death for winter though, so I wouldn’t root for that.
  23. IUsedToHateCold
    All yours!
  24. IUsedToHateCold
    The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. Don’t stick a fork in it.
  25. IUsedToHateCold
    Another 3 inches per radar. I’ve now got a leak in my roof. Can I send this rain somewhere else!?
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