IUsedToHateCold

Anything that sticks won't melt, but the moment the precip changes to snow won't be the moment it starts sticking. Temperature will be dropping rapidly for sure, but the ground needs to get cold enough and that will take some time. Without some sustained precip behind the front we get zero accumulations. Northern locations probably do get some accumulations because they are going to get more precip per the models. For us down by DC it's not looking great - perhaps a burst changeover to snow and then that's a wrap. Things could change, but it doesn't look great.

Yeah it's going to melt though. Will be pretty to watch briefly.

Really need what the GFS was spitting out a couple of days ago for my location (a nice straight wall of precip on a N/S axis). This just looks too dried up. Other models are even drier. At this point I'd take .25 of accumulation, but even that is probably not happening. Sigh.

Up to 52. Hoping to stay dry slotted so I can take a walk later

49 degrees. We torchin' I'd love to take a walk if it's warm out later and there's no rain, but knowing our luck the rain will pivot and we'll get it straight through.

44 degrees. Warming up fast. Makes running boxes out to the recycling bin a bit more pleasant.

Awesome! Should be a blast then. Have fun!

PHL is 50 miles north of Baltimore and that can make a difference in snowstorms. I would say it's similar, yeah, but not the same. The argument is largely semantic though, arguably no two places have the same climate. I just can't stand to say that they are the same when they get snowstorms that we don't.

You’re CAMPING in this weather? Wow.

No.

I can't remember last time I saw single digits here in Bowie. 2014? I remember it got down to 1 degree. DCA has to be strictly worse.

29/27. A cold rain indeed.

32/27 down here in Bowie. Maybe NW crowd in for a treat tomorrow. I’ve got no choice but to be all in on the anafrontal so that’s where I am. Hope it overperforms.

Dumb. The rain is just going to wash it away (unless it's for the mountains in the far west that are going to get snow)

If I get 0.8 inches new snow depth then I’ll take it and run.

Looks like a land hurricane to me. It's going to be a crazy FROPA. Like, I'll want to be outside when it moves through to experience the sudden 30-degree temperature drop firsthand.

There’s way too much gloom in here. If the models are showing a cutter on Monday then I agree but it’s too early to call it done.

An improvement over 18z, and perhaps more importantly, the GFS is sticking to its guns

Just dropping this here, if the all-important 18z GFS run doesn't suit you.

Ahh, the weenies begged to be reaped @WxWatcher007 Yet I offer you no Reaper, flying in like a blaze of glory on a cloud of death, Motorhead screaming from his scythe as he plucks your weenie soul from you, its destination an image with your name on it. Yes, there are fates worse than death, fates that make the comfort of the Reaper's hollow of souls look like a five-star hotel. The horde, having seen their clown maps evaporate, their hopes of days at home watching white powder fall while reveling in winter dashed once again by their insidious climate - indeed, capable of putting one of their own to the torch faster than you can say "GFS". Truly they are among the most fearsome of entities. Welcome home.

Hahahaha. You think anyone can manage a full horde of weenies running off a cliff? They need not management, but commiseration.

A tradition that must continue. For those weenies that hugged the wrong model too long and ran straight off the ledge. For those patterns that bring 70 degree weather in prime climo. For weeks and weeks (and weeks) on end of looking at ensemble output and orchestrating how we end up with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO only to be disappointed in the long run. An homage to our long departed Reaper, may his cursed soul rest in peace.

A model war: this forum in its highest form. You know where my money is at. GFS scored some nasty coups last year… and if the Euro folds I’ll be ready to crown the GFS king. It’s probably meaningless (as the real action is at h5) but I had to lol at the euros temp map that someone posted earlier. Just a weird thumb of arctic air sticking into the middle of the country, Regardless, we know it’s going to be cold. Be ready to bundle up weenies.

We flip or dry slot down here in the swamps for all the big ones. No biggie, we still get 1-2 feet from a storm like this.

GFS was king last year IIRC. That said, weenie rule #1 - hug the model that gives you the most snow. If the euro follows suit I’d see that as a good argument that there’s going to be a major east coast storm somewhere next week. Too soon to know the exact details-just that someone’s going to get it