bch2014

I work for one of the two main manufacturers of Halloween candy and I can assure you, Halloween is not going out of style. The category (I.e all manufacturers) +14% season to date. Granted, the majority of that is pricing flowing through but volume is up as well.

Grand Targhee is usually high on the list for early season snowpack.

The way they manifest themselves is different, sure, but the lack of building in the Champlain Valley hasn’t helped Stowe. Otherwise, it could be a relief valve to Stowe.

The issue is that it’s nearly impossible to build anything in the Northeast due to a combination of NIMBYism, construction costs, and regulation. Look at housing production/capita in fast-growing yet relatively affordable metros (I.e Houston, San Antonio, Greenville/Spartanburg, just to name a few) vs. the Burlington, VT MSA.

I don't get altitude sickness, but I do "notice" elevation during my first couple days at higher altitudes. That said, for me, the key is sleeping a high altitude. For example, when skiing at Telluride, you're sleeping at about 9,000 feet. So despite the fact that you're skiing at 11-12,500 feet, it doesn't affect me too much. Similarly, when I hiked Kings Peak, UT (13,528ft), we camped at about 11,000 feet the night before summiting. I don't remember being winded by elevation, more so by the death march that was the exit from the wilderness (30ish mile day). On the other end of the stick, I definitely notice the elevation when skiing at comparatively low Snowbird (9-11,000ft) when I'm sleeping at 4,500 feet in the valley.

BOS, BDL, and NYC finish slightly BN for June. ORH and PVD slightly AN.

Or, ya know, we could stop farming almonds and other water-intensive crops there.

What is your line of work? Does your company offer some other type of retirement plan? Just curious-war for talent is so fierce right now.

Definitely a bad day for the market... That said, I will continue to put 12% of my paycheck into my 401k (which is an 85/15 stock/bond mix-I'm 26-so weighted heavier to equities) every two weeks-not really sure what the more appealing investment is in the long-term so I can live with my decisions. That said-definitely a different situation for those who are close to retirement/already in it. Good thing for those folks is that social security is indexed to CPI (+they've got tons of equity in their homes).

Looking at the final numbers for April… BDR and CEF were the only major stations to finish BN. RUT also finished BN. Across the border in NY, LGA, NYC, and ALB were all BN. The more south and west you went, the worse it got compared to normal.

Interestingly, the fatality rate in VT and NY is very similar (both low by national standards). Massachusetts is the safest state in the country to drive in-despite lots of talk about how crazy its drivers are... https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/states/statesfatalitiesfatalityrates.aspx

Kirkwood in at 24" in the last 24 hours and 44" in the last seven days.

Palisades/Squaw reporting 28" in the last 24 hours (and 57" in the last seven days). Kirkwood hasn't updated yet. Mammoth 15"

Flew from JFK to BOS last night (was $150 cheaper than Amtrak) and it was a very, very windy landing.

I do think the cheap passes have helped skiers get into the sport. For every person I know among my core skier friends from growing up in the northeast who is mad at Vail, I know another from Houston and Dallas who have bought their first season pass and are doing multiple trips to Keystone/Breck (whereas maybe they used to just drive to Taos for a week).

Who wants to pivot? The MTN leadership, or the Hunter mountain ops staff (with regard to making more snow on expert terrain next season)? Yeah, I saw that announcement. It will certainly help make Vail the employer of choice (at least on a wage basis) in many of these mountain towns. As you said-it might ruffle feathers in the community... But if you're MTN leadership-I'm not sure what other choice you had (other than to raise wages)... Damned if you do, damned if you don't in the eyes of some. I'm sure you have intel on this-but I'm just not sure how Vail plans to keep pass prices so low with so many cost increases coming down the pike.. Whether its labor, energy, or CapEx, things are just getting more expensive. My company (large CPG) has taken ~15% pricing across our portfolio this year as we face labor pressure (paying $8,000 signing bonuses for line workers at manufacturing plants in East Tennessee, to give a bonkers example) and commodity pressures (not only crude oil-things like palm oil, sugar and corn also up big).

Skied Hunter today for the first time this season (I’m an Indy pass holder) for “social reasons.” I know the mountain well-as I’ve been a pass holder there for two seasons previously-yet still came away not wanting to ski there again. The quality of skier seemed even worse than usual (to the point of being nervous I was going to get hit on the slopes-can’t imagine what a non-expert would think), the grooming/surface management terrible (have they ever heard of tilling a slope?), and finally, key snowmaking terrain was closed. It’s the first weekend of March and K-27, Clair’s, and Racer’s Edge all closed… If Hunter doesn’t have its best expert terrain open, I’m not sure I understand the value proposition over Windham, Belleayre, and Plattekill. Further evidence that Vail=Fail.

The 12z GFS looks pretty good for NNE for the 3/7-3/8 event. Definitely a net gain for the ski areas at the very least if taken verbatim.

Lots of the more recent runs seem to be trending the Friday system to be drier than previously modeled... The GGEM is still the coldest model-but others seem to support a drier trend-especially for SNE and the tri-state area.

Le Massif jack on the GFS.

CMC flattened out the Friday system quite a bit. Hopefully the trend continues.

March-April 2007 is a classic. March 2018 was also quite good more recently.

Looks like 2-4 for the NYC-Boston corridor on the 12z GFS. More for South Jersey/Cape/SE MA.

The mountain in the background of your photo is Snows Mountain. https://www.waterville.com/press-releases/2017/2/18/reopening-snows-mountain-one-of-new-hampshires-ski-areas MarkO’s ski area is Campton Mountain, which is closer to the exit 28 on 93 https://www.camptonmountain.com

-12 here in Westfield, VT right now.