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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Stronger coastal / early transfer really makes a big difference here. Amazing what a couple mb or a 50 mile shift south on the upper levels can do
  2. Terpeast
    Looks pretty reasonable. I'm just south of that C line in B territory, so 2" is a good target for mby. Hopefully it breaks right as you say and I make a run for 3". Just need that vort to stay a bit south and NoVA to work its radar backbuilding magic like it sometimes does in these budding coastal setups.
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think these model LR forecasts rely too much on the MJO. Well, the MJO are well within the warm phases this week and our sensible weather has been the opposite of what you’d expect. It’s not the end all be all like some are saying.
  4. Terpeast
    Now I have a real shot at 3 inches! Now lets see what the rest of the 12z models have to say…
  5. Terpeast
    A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days.
  6. Terpeast
    Thanks, appreciate it!
  7. Terpeast
    WWA 1-3” for mby. Can’t complain
  8. Terpeast
    Low of 11, now 19
  9. Terpeast
    Now that’s what I call a screwjob. Everyone gets more than an inch and I get less. Life ain’t fair. I liked the h5 better though. Hope it’s the start of a surprise last minute trend. And I have covid. That’s all.
  10. Terpeast
    True. Best case scenario here is something similar to what happened with the last system where it beefed up moisture. I think this will be to a much lesser extent here. 1-2" with an upside of 3"
  11. Terpeast
    You forgot “obliterated”
  12. Terpeast
    Up to 24, minimal melting. Going to get a good refreeze tonight
  13. Terpeast
    Vort pass looks good where it is. It looks dry maybe because the model has a dry feed from the south. If that moisture feed turns out to be wetter, watch the snow amounts jump up quickly on that same vort pass.
  14. Terpeast
    Low of 8, now 9
  15. Terpeast
    Would take, but don’t love being on the southern edge. That’s never where you want to be. Just need the vort to dig a bit. Not asking for much!
  16. Terpeast
    Big difference on the same model
  17. Terpeast
    I don’t think that is a coincidence, tbh.
  18. Terpeast
    Never made it to 30 today. Topped out at 29.7 now down to 22
  19. Terpeast
    12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix) 1/15-16: 4.8” Total so far: 5.5”
  20. Terpeast
    Getting gusty, blowing snow. Gotta love it!
  21. Terpeast
    Nice! Seems models are getting in better agreement
  22. Terpeast
    Snowing again lightly
  23. Terpeast
    Another 4 inches on top of the 4 inches already OTG? I take
  24. Terpeast
    Took the kid outside again, better sledding. Ruler said a touch below 4.5” snow depth after some compaction
  25. Terpeast
    Light sleet falling make that freezing drizzle. Won’t do much except to firm up the snow pack
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