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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Nice, you're doing great! Mine was free and breast, and like you I was a sprinter. 50/100m events were in my wheelhouse. Made it to state in my junior and senior years Now all this discussion about swimming is starting to get me motivated about it again! Not gonna dive into Masters or anything, but just to get things going a little bit more. I sit too much for work!
  2. Terpeast
    Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open
  3. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t go that far. I have folks on my ignore list and EJ isn’t one of them. Pessimistic, maybe. But he’s provided a lot of value with the mesonet stuff.
  4. Terpeast
    Good day to go out for a nice long run. I love cold, but I hate exercising out in it, and the rowing machine is getting a little boring
  5. Terpeast
    Not at all. Get the cold here first, then bring on the STJ parade
  6. Terpeast
    Yep, 850 starts to flip BN on the 14th - remarkably consistent over the past week’s worth of runs. Then by the 16th they get pretty cold.
  7. Terpeast
    No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change
  8. Terpeast
    Yeah I was half expecting to see it fall apart and get replaced by a SE ridge. Was anything but.
  9. Terpeast
    Checked the models… no change. I guess we’re either enjoying the trip down memory lane while we wait
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don’t think the prime time starts until after 2/15 anyway. The week before that appears to more of a transition period
  11. Terpeast
    How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time
  12. Terpeast
  13. Terpeast
    Yeah, I'm less worried about the clock running out on us than I was a week ago, or even a few days ago. That 540 line is pretty close to us on the D12-15 ensembles... and that's geopotential height, not thicknesses!
  14. Terpeast
    Looking at analog matches centered on Feb 11 seems a tad too early. I'd want to see what the matches look like centered around Feb 18th or so.
  15. Terpeast
    Low of 26. Thick frost
  16. Terpeast
    Don’t look now but 0z gfs trended even further west with the TPV lobe and phases into a closed h5 low over delmarva. Clips cape cod. Very close to a coastal MA hit. Razor thin close. Continue this trend, it’s back alive for eastern folks. Unfortunately it’s on its own with only the icon for support. Other models way OTS
  17. Terpeast
    Looks awful
  18. Terpeast
    Final January average for mby: Jan 2024: 44/28 (~3 deg AN), 6.54” (wet!) Dec 2023: 51/33 (~5 deg AN), 6.55” (wet!) Noting these against my outlook. I was pretty confident that we’d have a wetter than normal winter and so far that is panning out. Not surprised by the warm december, but would have thought Jan would be closer to normal. That 78 degree day skewed us at least full degree upward. Take that day away, we'd be at only 2 degrees AN at roughly 44/26 Now let’s see what Feb brings!
  19. Terpeast
    Yeah, that'll be what it takes for us to beat climo by a decent margin. Add one more SECS and we'll put this as one of the better nino winters in the books.
  20. Terpeast
    Insane!
  21. Terpeast
    that's only up to Feb 15. The real fun should begin then, not likely before
  22. Terpeast
    I originally had this pegged as a cutter, but if we can get any frozen out of that, it’d be a big win before the best pattern comes.
  23. Terpeast
    Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out.
  24. Terpeast
    Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ.
  25. Terpeast
    Mostly rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in
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