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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Gfs turns this back into a cutter, like it was showing a week ago.
  2. Terpeast
    Always a chance we get a lucky shift south like we did with the second Jan storm, but I don’t think this is it. We don’t have a PV or any arctic front pressing things south as the wave approaches to begin with. I’m more interested in the feb 18-20 window
  3. Terpeast
    24.8 for the low. Classic cold winter morning
  4. Terpeast
    Just need to delay this wave by a day to give cold air enough time to get here. Outside of the 0z run yesterday, Gfs is still faster than euro/cmc. But running out of time for big wholesale changes. Minor shifts here and there won’t get it done for us
  5. Terpeast
    I’d go with 8-12” i-95 and 12-18” west towards blue ridge and i-81. But this is specifically for DCA, so I voted 5-8” as a siting penalty
  6. Terpeast
    Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm
  7. Terpeast
    Block looks stronger to me on the gefs Closer look at trends says not really, but not weaker either. Just sharper and clearer
  8. Terpeast
    Biggest takeaway has nothing to do with thermals... only that the models may just now be starting to pick up big threats at range.
  9. Terpeast
    Yep, we have a much better shot at 2/17-18 than the one before it. Agreed we need a phase for that one. But it's close.
  10. Terpeast
    When I have low confidence in the ops, I lean on the ensembles and 850s drop fast between 140 and 170 hours, with us going under 0C between 156 and 162, but both EPS and GEFS have precip ending or winding down by 162 hours. Again, it's a long shot and we probably get rain either way.
  11. Terpeast
    For now it's a perfect track rainstorm, but the height and thermal fields up north have poor continuity run to run with the GFS so I think the GFS is struggling with it and the western US fields. Those pieces keep shifting 500 miles one way or another. Zero confidence forecast 7 days out, as is often the case with pattern changes.
  12. Terpeast
    Less confluence
  13. Terpeast
    6z was an open wave, but both 00z and 12z are closed h5 lows in TVA... 12z is just a little ahead
  14. Terpeast
    141, hanging further back... I take back my 06 vs 00z statement
  15. Terpeast
    H132 looks more similar to 06z than 00z
  16. Terpeast
    Hanging back a bit more at 120. Still not sure...
  17. Terpeast
    It appears we have 2-3 waves of interest: The 13th, 19-21, and 22-23. The latter two may actually only be one storm, just disagreement among ensembles on timing. There will be a break of dry weather between the first two waves.
  18. Terpeast
    Ah yea, gotcha thanks. Just compared the latest ens of all 3, now I see the gefs being the weakest with the block
  19. Terpeast
    By red flag you mean too much of a good thing? I tried checking the 48hr 500mb trend on TT but it won’t show it
  20. Terpeast
    Maybe he’s right. But it’s always been showing a cutter, as is the Euro currently. We’ll see if gefs is out to lunch or is onto something here
  21. Terpeast
    Have to say gefs has trended south for feb 14 the last several runs, so that is an interesting development. Not on board yet, but I am now watching this one instead of disregarding it as a cutter
  22. Terpeast
    I think 2/13-14 was always going to be a cutter that brings about the pattern change, not one of the waves of interest AFTER the cold gets here
  23. Terpeast
    And there it is:
  24. Terpeast
    Low of 27 this morning. Wife heard the birds chirping outside. She said "winter's over", and I responded "I don't think it's over yet." I hope I'm right, so I can say "I told you so"
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, this year is the best year to swing for the fences. But keep in mind we have had couple of near misses. One in Jan 7, which had temperature issues and a track too inland. Couple degrees colder, it would have been a warning-level SECS maybe a low-end MECS. I was pretty disappointed in that one, and led me to lower my expectations a smidge. Another one was when Nova Scotia got pounded recently. This wasn't a "synoptic miss" in the sense that the track was 200 miles too far south, or a "mesoscale miss" with best banding 50 miles too far north... this was a planetary wave miss of about 500 miles (which isn't much at that scale) as I mentioned earlier. Move that omega block 500 miles west, and get the NS wave to dig in the tennessee valley, and we'd have gotten that HECS.
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