Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I agree with you, Chuck. I do some of this for a living now, and when others were saying "this is the most +PNA period" I thought something wasn't right. When tracking multiple snow events for mby, I didn't see a classic +PNA much of the time. If anything, it was mostly neutral with an AK ridge with some troughing undercutting it out west.
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Alright going to bed, tomorrow will be a very interesting day of tracking and trend watching.
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Delmarva and NJ get pummeled
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Looks more like 12z than 18z
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Euro not running yet
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Definitely different at h5 over the lakes. Might help bring the trajectory north
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I’ll pull an all nighter when we get that nighttime snowstorm. Think strategically, save your energy.
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Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep
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To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen.
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We'll see how things trend tomorrow. But if by saturday we don't see any improvements, it may be time to jump ship on that one.
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Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude
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This thread got quiet real fast. Unhappy hour GFS
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Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come
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Nice signal. Trajectory on that should be NE instead of E. Maybe ENE, which is just enough to get DC in the game. Still lots of time.
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I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried.
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This is exactly how I remember the 80s winters, and this winter was just like them. No major extended torches, 1-2 major cold outbreaks, and a couple of sig snowstorms of 5-8" with a bunch of little stat padders in between. Some rainers in between. Feels... normal.
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AI models, being underdispersive, tend to latch onto a solution early on. It’s great when they get the storm track correct. It’s an overconfident whiff in other cases where they get it wrong, though. Other than not being based on (and constrained by) the laws of physics, it’s one main weakness of AIWP models.
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Give me one more storm on the 20th, preferrably a MECS+, then bring on Spring. Would have no complaints about that.
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Hope yall got your jebwalks and took your kids (if you have any) out earlier today. Now it’s gross
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Nope, still 12z as they don't assimilate any new data beyond their originally scheduled run
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Just got word that 12z euro is now running and should be done in 1 hour... THEN they will release the data, so it may be a while before we see the images
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Site back up: ECMWF | Advancing global NWP through international collaboration
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Maybe I got it mixed up with another storm. But I do remember a major double digit storm where Bob Ryan went low and stayed low, it was almost like he totally disengaged from it all.
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On a separate domain
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Yep, this seems to be a S&E winter with the exception of the Jan 19 storm. I have almost 17" on the season by comparison, with just a few inches to go before hitting climo
