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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and - Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino. Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 1840-1880: neg for 40 years 1880-1910: pos for 30 years 1910-1925: brief neg for 15y 1924-1945: pos 20y 1945-1975: neg 30y 1975-1998: pos 23y 1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways
  2. Terpeast
    Cool, just downloaded too. I’ll get on the rapid rewards tomorrow too. Getting ready to get some free flights next year, wherever that may be!
  3. Terpeast
    Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program?
  4. Terpeast
    Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay
  5. Terpeast
    I hate to say this but that’s very nina-like. In a strong borderline super nino no less.
  6. Terpeast
    Looks better with temps this holds through 0z and 12z tomorrow, I’ll be more interested
  7. Terpeast
    Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well.
  8. Terpeast
    Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then
  9. Terpeast
    I like you Jeb, but no.
  10. Terpeast
    I heard from another poster (maybe bluewave or someone else?) that a SSW is only good if we already have blocking in place. Didn't turn out to be the case this time, and in 2019. It only seemed to disrupt the blocking we already had. So it's probably better to have that disrupting mechanism when we have a polar domain we don't like, i.e. +AO. Next time I'd rather get a SSW when we have a +AO so we can break it, instead of a SSW potentially ruining a block that was already in place. (Ji said what I just said in 8 words)
  11. Terpeast
    Conditions there will be even better next year
  12. Terpeast
    Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year?
  13. Terpeast
    Would be great to get a slight south trend with colder air so we get the secondary precip max across the DC/Balt metros. Given the makeup of this winter, that certainly isn't out of the question.
  14. Terpeast
    Looks like a dragon's claw
  15. Terpeast
    Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.
  16. Terpeast
    NAM trended not only warmer, but also faster the past 4 runs. We'll want it to slow down a bit to get it timed better with colder air. But with things being so progressive... (I'll let you finish that thought yourselves)
  17. Terpeast
    I'd phrase this question differently. If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know
  18. Terpeast
    I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world.
  19. Terpeast
    Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year.
  20. Terpeast
    Between the euro and other models that trended souther/drier, I’d call it an overall hold. Still 3 days out
  21. Terpeast
    You had breakfast with DT?
  22. Terpeast
    Its amazing what 10 days of wintry conditions in January has done
  23. Terpeast
    Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?
  24. Terpeast
    Oy.. what have I done?
  25. Terpeast
    I’m starting to prefer that. When we lose school days, the kiddo stays home and the only time she’s in a happy mood is when we’re playing outside in the snow. But if we’re not outside, it’s tantrum galore. Rather send her to preschool and keep the snow on weekends when she’s home anyway. That’ll change when she hits kindergarten or first grade, but for now… yeah.
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