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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Precip field actually shifted north on the GFS too. It's just farther south than other models like NAM and ICON. I'm not buying the 4-6" across northern neck and SoMD.
  2. Terpeast
    First call: South of 66: 1-2” locally 3” Between 66 and 70: 2-4” North of 70: 4-7” Mountains: 5-10” Subject to change, hopefully with a last minute south trend. (But it COULD shift north)
  3. Terpeast
    Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? this is the ICON thread after all…
  4. Terpeast
    Good run, but careful not to get any further amped else we'll either have temp issues or the best banding goes north of DC
  5. Terpeast
    0.5" qpf from harrisonburg through winchester through Loudoun and MoCo
  6. Terpeast
    850mb low just south of us, precip almost ending in DMV. Not longer duration, but maybe a heavier thump
  7. Terpeast
    Heavier precip at 36, could be a longer duration than previous run Now I see an 850mb low
  8. Terpeast
    SLP further back and 2mb stronger at 33 Big difference at 500mb. Previous run was flat and diffuse, now it's a bit more amped and further west
  9. Terpeast
    30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds
  10. Terpeast
    Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly. If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday
  11. Terpeast
    So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out
  12. Terpeast
    With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification)
  13. Terpeast
    Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models
  14. Terpeast
    Post it for everyone to see...
  15. Terpeast
    LWX has our low end being 1" and high end 5" in the dc/balt metros
  16. Terpeast
    Looks south of what it was before, unless I got my wires crossed up with another model. Still think forum wide is good for 2-4" and northern tier get better ratios
  17. Terpeast
    If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+
  18. Terpeast
    I'll happily take a 2-4er
  19. Terpeast
    23.7 low, heavy frost. 36 now
  20. Terpeast
    Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next
  21. Terpeast
    Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC
  22. Terpeast
    I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory.
  23. Terpeast
    Its certainly possible. March waves tend to be crazy amplified but timing with cold air will be tricky esepcially this year. I’d be happy with one more chance to play in the snow with my daughter and call it a winter, though. That’s where my head’s at now
  24. Terpeast
    Could be the last chance then that’d be all folks
  25. Terpeast
    Yep getting interesting. A little south trend won’t hurt. Wiggle room!
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