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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, sticking with 2-4" for dc/balt, and N/W suburbs will make a run for the high end locally 5". No reason to change my first call despite the north trend (a lot of it is model noise) I-95 and east looks like they'll have temp issues at the onset, but then the rates should overcome that. Then it's only a matter of how long that lasts. N&W will have a longer window of heavy rates with freezing temps allowing for more accumulation I'm at 47 now, but dewpoint is 16
  2. Terpeast
    That's what my wife said. She still doesn't believe it
  3. Terpeast
    Surprised to see the warning get expanded east to include mby. 4-6" forecast. East side of IAD 2-5".
  4. Terpeast
    Besides there's only 12 hours left. Not a whole lot of time left for big shifts
  5. Terpeast
    Yes, this has trended north, but we're still in the game. If I lived 30 miles south of DC, I'd be sweating it though
  6. Terpeast
    They're probably rolling their eyes at us now (and I don't blame them lol)
  7. Terpeast
    That's my wag. I called for 2-4" dc/balt metros and 4-7" far N&W, and don't see any reason to change that. I'd love to get 5" out of this, though!
  8. Terpeast
    Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning.
  9. Terpeast
    High end potential: Low end floor:
  10. Terpeast
    It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago
  11. Terpeast
    Probably mount PSU and places up near the m/d line, and someone around the dc metro may eek out 6”
  12. Terpeast
    Technically a stj-enhanced northern stream wave. A good sign for qpf verifying on the high end of forecast
  13. Terpeast
    My thoughts too. I’m at 37/19
  14. Terpeast
    Temps aren’t the problem north of 66
  15. Terpeast
    Yeah, it’s pretty much noise. 0z ICON is actually similar to 12z
  16. Terpeast
    Yeah, that would bring the grade on my snowfall outlook from an F to a D
  17. Terpeast
    Interesting take. That may be what it takes to dissipate these marine heat waves. Hopefully we can do that without too much collateral damage.
  18. Terpeast
    Looks like 3-4" area wide north of 50/66
  19. Terpeast
    Weird, not sure. Some overlapping going on there..
  20. Terpeast
    Probably automated
  21. Terpeast
    They’ll probably replace it with a new headline. Not sure why they hoisted a special weather statement in the first place, especially seeing that they hoisted a WSW soon after
  22. Terpeast
    Glad to see the euro hold instead of trending north. Sticking with 2-4” for dc/balt with a little more upside
  23. Terpeast
    Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable.
  24. Terpeast
    Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this
  25. Terpeast
    Interesting tweet, and digging deeper into the upper level maps, I agree. This gets us more upside in terms of qpf, but the DC metro is dangerously close to missing the best banding with this north trend. I don't think we go 4/4 on last minute south trend this time.
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