Terpeast

Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!

They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs.

IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5". I'd take the under on 8" though.

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table

near total lack of cold air except siberia

I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!

Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights.

Living vicariously through you, though l’m starting to think you got more than you bargained for. Hell of an adventure. You’re getting pummeled! Keep posting pics and hope you get power back soon.

That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border

The PDO isn’t the end all be all. It was solidly positive during 97-98. Carver’s Gap in his TN forum said that we may be at the beginning of a -AO/-NAO cycle, but I thought we’d be going into an extended period of +NAO given where we are heading into the solar cycle the next 5-8 years or so.

If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too. Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.

Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway

We’ll probably have to chase next year. I will be keeping an eye on where the best places are going to be.

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when): New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. So here's what it is showing for next winter now... 1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing. 2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like. 3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures. 4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase. My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead. Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

I don’t think we’re in a drought anymore, Will. I’m ready for sunny 60s/70s. Let’s see what severe weather season brings. Summer likely to be hotter and drier than the last few.

What does your method say?

Really bad situation on i-80 in ferocious blizzard conditions. I hope they all come out of this ok. They’re on their own right now http://newtoreno.com/ca-i80-webcams-sodasprings-wb.htm

That’s the best attitude we can have and carry through the year, and possibly through next winter.

The biggest irony of this season is we got our best wintry week not from a nino STJ pattern, but more of a nina-like Alaska ridge pattern (-EPO) combined with a short-lived greenland block (-NAO). If we’re going to play the “everyone zigs, we zag” game, we better hope that two things happen at the same time during next year’s nina - 1) pac ridge nudges poleward into alaska AND 2) we get greenland blocking to hold any cold air down But my wag is that we don’t get any blocking, and we get 2022-23 without the cold xmas week. I’d pay money to be wrong.

Not much difference, even though it felt much colder this year thanks to the mid-Jan wintry week with two SECS that trended the right way for us.

I get your frustration around the lack of discussion of what's causing the ridge/trough flip. I notice this more and more, but tbh I don't have any good answers to offer as to what's causing this. Really. Gun to head, I'll still say "I don't know." I hope we get some real answers either from yet another shift in the pattern, or from climate scientists smarter than us publishing new papers on this. We could blame the MJO, but I think that's too convenient of a target. It could be the +EAMT since all the cold has been on the other side. It could be the Atlantic, but I'm not buying it 100%. Again, I hope the answers become clearer to us sooner than later.

@psuhoffman I was just thinking that last year, CA mountains received record snowfall during a La Nina year, and now they are again getting record snowfall during an El Nino year. ENSO doesn’t seem to matter. I think that gives your posts about opposite pacific configurations giving the same western trough eastern ridge more validity than people seem to be giving it. I don’t know if this is caused by CC, or just part of a cycle. We used to have a persistent western ridge eastern trough for years while I was growing up here, and I thought that was a permanent fixture of north american climate. The opposite seems to be happening now, which makes me think it is more cyclical.

I miss reading sky-is-falling AFDs with incoming HECS. Reading the reno and sacramento ones brings back a lot of memories

Just not cold enough. In late march it gotta be dark blue or green.

How were you able to find a place to stay at short notice?