Terpeast

0.3”. What a joke

Barely any precip so far today. Not going to put a dent in this drought. Disappointed.

Fighting dry air to the NW. hope the rain eventually wins out

Looking optimistic for rain. Radar looks decent, and all models show at least 1" imby

Don’t look now, we just hit a “cool” 90 at IAD and imby. Feels relatively nice though.

We still have a massive hole to climb out of. Last night helped (if you got rain), but it's not enough. We need a good 1-2 day soaker a week for a month or two to catch up. Long term, a bit of troughing between west/central US ridge and the WAR. We'll have plenty of SW flow to keep us hot and humid most days, but fortunately more chances for afternoon storms with the trough axis nearby.

Keep me posted, please!

Downloadable csv would be fine, but it’s your call and I can figure out how to scrape the data from whichever source you prefer. How about nao, ao, pna, wpo, and epo? Or are you focusing on ssts only?

I would indeed find the daily data useful because then I can join these indices with my own daily time series data… and do so many things with it. I prefer it in raw/tabular format so I can do my own visualizations. Including putting it through my own AI / machine learning model to find the most important relationships and make predictions based on that.

Based on KIAD data, both max and min are increasing... and the mins seem to be increasing just a little bit faster (steeper) than the maxes, but not by much. Maybe by a degree, or a degree and a half tops.

Interesting question… I can run that analysis for KIAD as a spot check for my region. Will update later today…

Well, that marine pool seemed to have shifted east as I compare the two maps. Maybe that has implications, or maybe it doesn’t.

Thanks for posting this. It's worth noting the ridge over the aleutian islands. That major ridge over far northern europe and NW eurasia is also remarkable, and makes sense in the context of ACE.

Decent rainer with some wind. Finally. nearest pws hasn’t updated their rain obs, but the next one to the SW reported 0.46”

Line is *trying* to get itself together west of the blue ridge. And then there’s the heavy rain threat later in the week. We just gotta capitalize on either one. Ideally both. If we don’t, we’re in serious trouble.

95/79 HI 114

High of 90 so far, clouds holding temps back a bit. But dews are off the charts (78-80) Even if I only get to 95 imby, it’ll still feel like 110

Even IAD didn’t get below 80 last night or this morning

84/77. Oppressive

Yeah if we bust west of 95, then we are in deep trouble with this drought. I don’t know how much more of this my trees and garden can take.

Yeah those clippers have been replaced by GL lows that always seem to interfere with the genesis of cold highs at the most inopportune times. It’s almost as if we need a strong PV to squeeze as far south as Ontario just to get those lows far enough south for DC to snow (like it did twice this January)

Climate change. And no, I'm not being flippant. It's easy to see that if the jet stream runs further north, then everywhere underneath and south of it will be above normal

Another 100 degree day in the bag. (99.7 but rounding up anyway) max HI 113!

98 so far for the high. Max HI 112. Sitting at 96 with lots of cloud cover

Another way we could get some help is an -epo block that happened in the middle of Jan. It was short lived so this plot has some noise, but we can see the cold air dumping into the CONUS. One pathway to this happening is the aleutian ridge pushing poleward through AK, which can occasionally happen in La Ninas. The biggest irony is that this wasn’t driven by El Nino. This was the only 10 day period when the STJ all but quieted down this winter. If I remember correctly, the MJO was in 3 before this pattern aberration occurred (and went onto 4-6 driving record warmth after the two MA snows). Your Jan 2022 scenario and this one are just about the best short-term wintery hits that we can hope for south of 40N in this coming winter, imo