Terpeast

59.7 now imby

74 for the high, now 68. Loving it! Actually a bit chilly

Whiff

One might argue that the PDO went negative after the 1998 super nino, and stayed mostly negative except for a few years here and there. Or it could also be argued that it went negative after the 2016 super nino with a special flavor being the Japan marine heat wave. Depends on how you want to slice it…

All ensembles want to bring a wave of higher PWAT anomalies across the keys and northern Caribbean around Aug 23-24. Question is whether it organizes into a tropical low.

Almost got split, but got an efficient downpour that lasted 20 minutes. 0.41” the next town 3 miles north of me got absolutely hosed…

Right on my doorstep. Come on, push east

If it were November and the atmosphere/sst patterns look similar to today, I’d give it a 60% chance of a shutout and a 40% chance of eeking out an advisory/low-end warning event (of which we had 2 last January) during a brief -epo period. Beating climo? Fuggedaboutit. Too soon though. We’ll see how the tropical season pans out and how the MJO behaves in October. Either way, the upslope regions (Deep creek, snowshoe, etc) should have better winters than last year and even the year before.

Agreed. We were robbed there by something like the butterfly effect. I remember a few model runs showing foot-plus snows in the MA before we got rug pulled.

You’ll be back. See you soon

That’s actually a reasonable outlook. Cold & mild in the right places for a La Nina winter and/or -PDO regime though i would lean much drier across the south and EC

Yeah, i see a warm blob moving east from that marine heatwave into the GoA / west NA coast. Winter 24-25 looks ugly af but would be happy to get a 1-2 week period of wintry weather in either Jan or Feb, most likely Jan. Feb will probably torch

Low of 61. Splendid morning out there!

We went to the greenbriar lake NW of frederick. We picked a perfect day to go… 70s, cool, no humidity, no mosquitoes, and the water was nice to swim as in not cold because of the June-July wave. So many people came, they cut off access to the park by 10 am… we got there at 9:55, so lucky

Man its steamy out right now. Lower humidity can’t come this weekend fast enough

2.5” total for the event

2.3” since Wed

I am starting to think that the difference between ONI and RONI should be a factor in and of itself when thinking about seasonal outlooks. I don’t think that we had a 0.6 difference in ONI vs RONI for 86-87 and 09-10…

2.09” on the day so far. Radar shows blob passed through, but that is probably deceptive. Individual cells trying to form out of thin air after the main blob. Particularly concerned about overnight tor threat.

Was pulling for you man

Now winding down a bit in intensity. That was a great round of steady heavy rain, will update as soon as my nearest pws updates its qpf. looks like the tornadic stuff missed me to the SW and W

Pouring now

Big batch on my doorstep, hopefully I stay inside the eastern edge of it. but I’ll pass on the tornadoes

1.41" so far today

It would probably have turned out to be a snowy winter too had the Japan marine heat wave abated enough and the PDO more neutral or on the positive side. While it was our best chance for a snowy winter in years, there was indeed a 1972-73 flavor given how negative the PDO was and the ENSO-induced SE trough was more tilted to the west giving California all these atmospheric rivers and historic mountain snows. I noticed 72-73 and mentioned it in my winter outlook, but didn’t want to emphasize it too much because well… that would’ve been a disaster. At least we avoided a total shutout thanks to that January -EPO block.