Terpeast

The GEFS backed off a bit on mjo 5-6 strength, but most models are converging on a healthy mjo run of decent strength through those phases through the end of this month.

49.5 low, then beautiful day to take my daughter biking to the playground. Twice.

Only looking at January, I could also make the case that 2021-22 is a recent case of a very warm december followed by a colder and snowier than normal January. Going by KIAD numbers, Dec 2021 was +7.5 and Jan 2022 was -2.5, a swing of -10 in departures. KIAD also got 11” during Jan 2022, with places further south getting even more.

I’m not as bullish as you, but maybe thats just because of our locations. I’m about 70 miles south of you, which could be the difference between a serviceable winter and a dud. I’m just looking for signs of a temporary break from the 22-23/23-24 pattern that resulted in +5-8 degree temp anomalies here. For example, can we get a Jan 2022 or a mid-Jan 2024 “break” that gives us cold and snow as far south as here? I want to say yes, there will be 1-2 periods of this, but all signs point to another very mild winter overall.

FWIW ensembles show a warmer west canada with a near normal to cooler east in the 5-15 day time frame.

Have you noticed our hurricane seasons getting extended and lasting longer into the fall?

Looks pretty neutral. Wasn’t it strongly positive last month?

The euro definitely has a la nina signature in its mid latitude atmospheric pattern. Just because the equatorial pacific ssts aren’t as cold as you want them to be, it doesn’t mean there won’t be an aleutian ridge as the euro is showing.

If you’re correct, that would be good news for the MA. Based on 850mb DJF climo, it gets down to around -3 along i-95. The past two winters were so warm that the 850s averaged 0 or above, which is a death sentence for snow prospects here. If it’s not going to be as warm, we could maybe have opportunities in borderline situations with west of 95 doing better.

Kirk and Leslie both have plenty of gas in their tanks as per NHC, so we may reach or exceed 120-125 ACE after these plus Milton

Really hoping it won‘t turn north into NC. Getting close to 100 ACE on the year, and Milton is likely to push us over maybe towards 110. Right around average.

Yeah so am I. Just that the arrival of pumpkin season gets me a little carried away

And maybe the-storm-that-shall-not-be-named won’t be a miss the second time around. /weenie mode

Looking closely at the first one, we can see more of an -epo signature with the north american trough being more central. This is what happened this past January… and that was in spite of the strong nino, not because of it. That week was more of a La Nina pattern with -EPO/-NAO. This is the pathway to getting snow in this new normal. I also remember (if correctly) Heisy saying that if the leading wave in front of the second storm hadn’t squashed the flow too much, it could have been a much bigger storm. This is what we want to root for in the upcoming winter.

Fixed

I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here.

Need to dry things out here. Yard is disgusting and mosquitoes are everywhere

I hope they are all okay. So sad.

I-40 eastbound out of Asheville reopened last night per NC Weather Authority’s facebook post.

Agreed. I’m actually experimenting with AI and machine learning to enable this sort of pattern recognition and use that to predict where the main features are going to be on a seasonal time scale.

Notice it happened more frequently before the monster -pdo/-enso background state after 2015. Since that year, it only happened once. So i’m not sure if this pattern will hold this time. If it does, I think its random chance, like flipping a coin and getting tails 5x in a row and then getting heads on the 6th try. But if we DO get a cold February, I’m willing to eat my words and concede that you’re onto something.

3.63” on the month. The only day we got a lot of rain was 1.56” on the 26th, the rest was nickel and dime stuff of 0.05-0.25” even though we haven’t seen the sun in almost two weeks.

Yeah, we basically have nothing else going for us (anyone south of 40n east of the apps). If the MJO flops this month like the euro is saying, we have a fairly high probability of looking at another stinker of a winter like 2022-23 barring a rogue fluke. If the MJO pops OTOH, it’ll be a good test of the relationship that bluewave has sniffed out and hopefully we’ll get at least a few weeks of a decent wintry period.

Worth noting most models take the MJO into 4-6 for October, but differ in strength. GFS ens goes record strong especially in the second half of the month, while Euro ens keeps it weak or COD.

Haven’t seen any up this way, but noticed a few stink bugs. That’s new because I hadn’t seen them last year or the year before.