Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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All three main models are in good agreement on the broad strokes of this system. The little details can change, though. I don’t think any further changes will result in us getting any substantial snow.
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And the one winter that did have the coldest xmas day turned out to be a +8 torch for Jan/Feb
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Both extended Euro and GFS ensembles take the MJO to 7 by January. Euro has trended slightly stronger with the mjo wave, but still weaker than GEFS.
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We did get the coldest first week of december in 14 years. All other first-week decembers colder than this one are between 2002 and 2010.
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The ICON does this. Even better at 18z but only out to 120
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6z euro looks similar. 12z gfs has a flatter and further north trough
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Folks in my area and into Fairfax county reported seeing flakes/sleet at 5 am. But I was sleeping. By the time I woke up at 6:45, it was just wet. Possible I missed a dusting that melted within 10 min, but if I didn’t see it, it didn’t happen.
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Looks like some places got lucky with a dusting.
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Looks like wet, no dusting. 36/33
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Yeah, I’m thinking Feb torch. More interested in early Jan when the mjo gets out of the warm phases.
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Well south, but boundary is also south. Enough cold air for frozen. Not going to take much for it to pop. It’s so close.
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Covered this in my outlook. We may have some SE ridging, but unlike the last 2 years Canada is unlikely to be torched so cold air source should be nearby for most of the winter.
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I think the other way around. By Feb the mjo will be back into the warm phases and has historically been a torch month in a nina.
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Green and yellow returns went over me, and I don’t think I saw anything falling. probably virga here. 41/22
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Didn’t see anything, but I didn’t go outside.
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Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability.
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Exactly. This cold period came as a surprise for most. I think there will be a few more surprises (more variability) this winter. We just need to time something perfectly or extend one of these cold periods long enough for something to happen.
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Yep, its something to track then we take a break until around Dec 20-23 or so.
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Even with GEFS being the warmest model 2 weeks out, it’s starting to bring the -epo back and with a trough south of GOA, we see it trying to rebuild a ridge out west. That timing is close to when it also brings the mjo to phase 7 (or almost there). For those of you who prefer VP anomalies, that takes the strongest forcing to near the dateline. From there, things can get interesting within the following 2 weeks or so. Maybe longer.
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This is the first time I’ve seen most models in agreement. They never were about dec 5-6 nor about dec 8-10
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Fair. If the MJO is gonna stay strong, then we want to root for it to get into 8 rather than going through 6 then womping into COD. Right now GEFS keeps it healthy well into 7, which is a transition phase for the east.
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It seems the new Euro weeklies are trying to move the MJO along (or at least kill it off into COD) and produce a trough in the east. If it pans out (a big if) this second round might work better than this week when the cold pattern was fighting against forcing in phases 4-5. Definitely something to watch late Dec - early Jan.
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Yeah, I mentally add +5 to warm anomalies a week out. If next tuesday is forecast to hit 65, then I’d say we’re gonna push 70
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Key thing is we need that weekend clipper to trend further south, to get the boundary south for it to snow here. Can get it done, but we need it to trend for multiple runs over multiple days.
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GFS and CMC shifted away from the follow up wave idea. Very much looks like snow is not in the cards this round, other than the potential little squall tomorrow morning early. Euro has been rock solid, and has been the better model lately (despite the flak it gets). Verification scores support this.
