Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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1972-73 stood out to me for last year (as the worst case scenario)
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Very nice trend. I like how the ridge axis is shifting west as it comes forward in time.
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Looks like +PNA decembers tend to roll into January and maintain a ridge out west?
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So far I have had only 1 60+ degree day this December (the 8th).
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Pretty close to that. 1.23” total
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I think we just have higher expectations in the 6-10, 11-15 day range whereas we used to only look out to 5-7 days. I think the models today are better than even the euro used to be, but the lead times have gotten much longer.
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The aleutian/GoA low is yet another surprise that many of us didn’t see coming this winter. I didn’t myself, but as I said before, this winter will find a way to throw us a couple of curveballs. We want to root for the GoA low to retrograde into the aleutians so that we can get a nice PNA to pop, and a negative epo to top it off. Worst case scenario? GoA low stays put, and then La Nina reasserts itself with MJO reloading 4-6 for a SE ridge. But I don’t think the GoA low is durable, and the jet should retract some.
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Point taken. I’m actually glad to see this.
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Yeah I was thinking about that thus morning. Yesterday we were barely into the low 40s for the high. Today we blew through the 50s to top out at 64 imby. No one was under 60 except near the bay or in the mountains.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
Terpeast replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Good post. When these things happen, I tend to look for spatial areas where models (and individual runs) are more in agreement with each other. In this example, I see better agreement on warmth over the western US, implying a western ridge. The contradictory forecasts over the east may just indicate greater variability and/or higher uncertainty. -
I think those 30+ ssts run deep, but even temporary sfc cooling will open some windows where MC forcing isn’t dominating everything
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Probably some temporary cooling in the warm pool due to ongoing convection in that area
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True, good point. Looks really noisy. In that situation we’re probably better off looking at the hollmover charts, but I’m skeptical of a standing wave longer than 1-2 weeks because even strong tropical convection is almost always self-limiting. It will either weaken or move.
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TT doesn’t show that. Can you post a map?
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I think for now the models might be latching into the warm pool bias due to persistency, but not sure it will stay that way forever (despite what snowman might be shouting from his rooftop). I think this winter will find a way to surprise us.
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Lock it in
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Previously the GEFS had it stronger going into 7, but now weaker lime the EPS?
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I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro
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It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes.
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Given the strongly negative -pdo, I think we want to root for a stronger mjo pass through 6-7 into 8-1 in order to break up the pac jet and induce some pacific blocking
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Personally I'm not rooting for a historic cold outbreak. I just want it cold enough to snow, even if only by a degree. Subzero cold? I worry about my pipes.
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Its been warm up there for so long, it’s gonna take a while for it to freeze over. And with the upcoming 500 pattern, i’m not sure it will by christmas. That being said, there will be plenty of snow cover from the looks of it.
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That would be a very long delay if 1.2 was behind this. It could be more due to the recent +AAM spike after Thanksgiving, even though it has waned a bit.
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36 for the high, coldest max so far. 26 now
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I know you were joking, but that strong aleutian low is definitely not la nina. Something else is driving this.
