Terpeast

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it

2009-10 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places.

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. Imagine that.

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

Nice to see some lowland folks cashing in!

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with

Still snowing, smaller flakes, only trace accumulation. Great snow TV

Coming down at a good clip. Car top starting to cave

Light snow falling

I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).

Saw flurries when dropping off my daughter at school. Enough for a trace. Right now nothing, but clouds to my NW look pretty dark and ready to unload. Radar looks clear that way though

I see flakes/graupel on the top of my car. 33

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast.

Ok i’d like this trend to continue for a few more days to a week before buying into this

Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs

Lets hope the wheels don't come off this one like last Feb.

All we can glean from the above is that we'll be in mjo 7 by the end of the month. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Yes, I've been seeing efforts to create hybrid models where AI helps with data assimilation for initial conditions, and then the NWP physical models run them out forward. None of that is is public yet, but so far it seems promising and I'm sure we will see a lot of new stuff coming down the pike in 2025.

Honestly I’m skeptical of this panning out as depicted, but we will see.

Yeah, for 12/23-30 MC convection slowed down and increased in strength so naturally it would have corrected warmer for NA. I think that once MC convection dies down (and it will) cold will come back sometime in the first week of January. Just not sure how durable that will be, though. IOW, how long can we hold off MC reloading in mjo 4, for example. If at least 2 weeks, we’ll have some chances during prime climo.

Did EPS show the same thing? It’s been doing better than GEFS with verification. Either way both models show AR building back and just about to reconnect the cold source. Timing is TBD, but they’ve been consistent.

Other than the vodka cold in 94, I remember getting about 2” of fluffy snow on top of 3 inches of thick ice. My dad tried to drive his jeep up our driveway, he got only halfway up the hill and he slid all the way back down.

Yeah I couldn’t book any major trips this year because I was going through some stuff earlier and now I just started my new job. But keeping an eye on canaan when it gets cold again, and I have the points saved up for another trip out west next year.