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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Maybe but not necessarily. Confluence in front is a bit stronger 6z than 0z
  2. Terpeast
    CMC, Euro, and GFS runs today/tonight generally agree on the track. Not a cutter, but not overly suppressed either. The key player is “50/50” low and whether it moves/rotates a bit out of the way to give the s/w room to amplify, but not so far out that we don’t get confluence and therefore it cuts. The cutter risk is lower now, and we should be happy with a suppressed/sheared track this far out. Plenty of time for it to evolve.
  3. Terpeast
    CMC low to OH/WV then coastal transfer
  4. Terpeast
    CMC is trying to cut. Not sure it does, but it’s another possible solution besides the GFS.
  5. Terpeast
    Guys, don’t get too frustrated. We are very much still in the game. I rather see a more southern track than a cutter at this point.
  6. Terpeast
    Ironically a faster pac jet would help kick things to the east here, but not so much thay it cuts. Delicate balance, and models won’t get this pinned down until 4 days before the event. Still resolving the clipper, which seems to have trended stronger.
  7. Terpeast
    More confluence over the east. Much more than 18z
  8. Terpeast
    Less NS energy too
  9. Terpeast
    Trended colder in the midwest/plains 3 runs in a row per gfs.
  10. Terpeast
    Ridge in between the s/w and the clipper trough looks weaker, may help keep cold in place better, but might be a weaker storm in terms of less risk that it cuts
  11. Terpeast
    Fwiw, CMC is stronger and faster with the western s/w. Will be an interesting comparison
  12. Terpeast
    Not sure it means much yet, just everything is a bit slower
  13. Terpeast
    Nah I like where it is, the track. Nice and easy E-W just south of us with no mixing issues. It tries to dry slot us early, could be right but precip is likely underdone. But it’s the ICON a week out, so…
  14. Terpeast
    When it got cold Thanksiving - early dec, the CMC verified better than the GFS. Not as good as the Euro, but still did a decent job. I'd pay attention to the CMC
  15. Terpeast
    And the southern s/w looks a little faster this run than 0z euro
  16. Terpeast
    EPS is definitely a step in the right direction. We do want it colder and more suppressed as I’d rather be on the north side a week out than to the south
  17. Terpeast
    Not sure why I got weenie tagged for this comment. In the same way, when a perfect track is modeled at 200 hr, chances are it ends up being a cutter unless we get the PV to press down. Still a very NS-driven pattern so models are going to struggle beyond 4-5 days out.
  18. Terpeast
    I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north.
  19. Terpeast
    Gfs op looks weird. Slow moving OH valley low… then it dies… and then not 24 hours later a coastal races by? 500mb looks more like one wave trying to phase with the PV than two separate storms. Either way, it won’t verify close to verbatim.
  20. Terpeast
    It’s closer to a big hit than the surface would tell you, though. Look upstairs
  21. Terpeast
    Gonna slide i think. Wave spacing issues as CAPE said. If the second wave slows down just a bit, it’ll get more room to dig and amp with the 50/50 established
  22. Terpeast
    Nice pass that gives us 4-8” areawide with no mixing. Biggest takeaway is that everything is on the table at this point. We should be able to pull some wintry precip out of this upcoming period.
  23. Terpeast
    Stronger high bearing down further south
  24. Terpeast
    That’s how we roll here
  25. Terpeast
    Worth a look, yes. Op euro is way overdone on suppression imho. I bet the next 0z run will bring it back further north
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