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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    So, here’s where we are at. 3 models tonight - icon, gfs, cmc - stopped the suppression trend and brought the storms back north. Bit weaker confluence, better wave spacing by slowing the storm down 6ish hours.
  2. Terpeast
    Actually the models sped up this storm since early yesterday, and then now slowing it down a bit.
  3. Terpeast
    CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go.
  4. Terpeast
    I’ll take it. The south shift stopped and its back north per gfs. Probably some more wiggling to do, but starting to settle on the general track. Which is the kind of track we want.
  5. Terpeast
    Confluence def more east
  6. Terpeast
    Better, but careful. Don’t want to overcorrect
  7. Terpeast
    And not much difference in the NE low
  8. Terpeast
    Gfs is running. @stormtracker you still alive?
  9. Terpeast
    Not surprisingly. We need better wave spacing
  10. Terpeast
    We better stop the south trend tonight though
  11. Terpeast
    Love that movie. Can’t watch it too many times
  12. Terpeast
    On my second beer, victory Merry Monkey. We’ll see if I make it through the pbp tonight haha
  13. Terpeast
    I’m gonna stay up just for @stormtracker’s pbp. It’s epic when done drunk
  14. Terpeast
    0.38” per my new weather station imby
  15. Terpeast
    Larry Cosgrove
  16. Terpeast
    Past 4 runs, GFS has been zig zagging between N and S. Maybe it's just trying to come in better focus.
  17. Terpeast
    I think the ICON is in error because no other model closes off a tiny low off baja and lets it just sit and spin. I'd regard it as a one-off, but monitor closely.
  18. Terpeast
    I think the cold being centered the W or SW is a good thing as opposed to it being right on top of us.
  19. Terpeast
    2902. Christmas present from wife
  20. Terpeast
    Subzero imby. We’ll see if my new ambient verifies. Hope it doesn’t break!
  21. Terpeast
    No real trend on the euro, this is noise at 6-7 days out
  22. Terpeast
    UKMET is on the other side of GFS, with Euro/ICON/CMC somewhere in the middle
  23. Terpeast
    I wouldn't react negatively to more confluence pushing this storm south. I would always leave the door open for a last minute north trend, so we're sitting right where we want to be sitting imho. There's always a chance that the first system off the coast is going to be overdone, and with an active NS, the 50/50 low might get pushed a bit to the east. It's trending stronger, sure, but I think there will be more progressiveness to it than what the models are depicting 6-7 days out.
  24. Terpeast
    Actually confluence is stronger on 6z. Look at the 540 line and vorticity pressing southward over MN & WI eastward through the great lakes.
  25. Terpeast
    Someone may see a dusting east of the mountains from this one. Not holding my breath for mby
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