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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Haven’t been paying attention to that yet. Need to resolve the two waves before that first, then we’ll have a better sense of what the day 10 threat might look like
  2. Terpeast
    For now Euro is on its own with the north shift, and it’s just one run. Need to see what 0z models say, and need to see if they start following the euro on the north shift. It may be onto something, or it may be a blip. Many are taking this seriously because Euro is the best performing model.
  3. Terpeast
    Between i-66/rt 50 and i-70 were progged to see not more than an inch or so averaged across all models, and we ended up with 3-6” both storms
  4. Terpeast
    The two Jan storms last year shifted south within 2 days, but that situation is a little different.
  5. Terpeast
    Just now getting a chance to sit down and dig in, but @wxmvpete already did his excellent writeup. I don’t have much to add. Keep it coming!
  6. Terpeast
    Looks like a classic N+W event we used to get a lot in the past. I’d take it as long it doesn’t keep trending north (which is still a possibility)
  7. Terpeast
    After my daughter goes to bed, I’m going to dig into why the models are diverging. But by then I may not have much to add, you all provide great insights so quickly.
  8. Terpeast
    Now the GFS and Euro diverge! Oh boy this is gonna get interesting.
  9. Terpeast
    Looks like the typical GFS swings/noise to me. Yes it’s faster, but the NE trough/confluence also moves east accordingly. Almost like they’re dancing in sync. Qpf amounts won’t be figured out until the meso models have their day with it.
  10. Terpeast
    Yep fewer north outliers this run vs previous. Southern edge no change
  11. Terpeast
    Surprised to see ukie colder than cmc, maybe a good sign. Both are around the same caliber for model verification, close behind euro
  12. Terpeast
    I like the 10-11th where it is now.
  13. Terpeast
    Thinking those snowfall maps are generous on the south side of that band, but the CMC always been close to mixing along I-66 the past several runs. It hasn't really changed except moving the storm along faster.
  14. Terpeast
    One positive out of a faster storm is we'll get snow starting at night or early morning hours. Easier stickage. CMC gets dangerously close to mixing here, but is the warmest of the 3 models so far this cycle.
  15. Terpeast
    CMC splits the difference between the GFS and euro
  16. Terpeast
    CMC s/w is more robust than GFS. But wave spacing is going to be a delicate issue for us.
  17. Terpeast
    CMC is also a bit faster at hr 78
  18. Terpeast
    Confluence is actually a bit stronger, but more east
  19. Terpeast
    And earlier neg tilt, which could mean more moisture feed. Too early to tell
  20. Terpeast
    Just spitballing based on gut feel, no real scientific reasoning. I think the best waa banding will occur just to the north of me. Hopefully I can stay within that band too
  21. Terpeast
    Happy new year all!
  22. Terpeast
    Looking ahead, some ridging is trying to push into Alaska again, which would keep the EPO from going too positive.
  23. Terpeast
    Nice set of 0z and 6z runs. The south trend needed to stop and it did. This is now within 5 days. Confidence is ticking higher.
  24. Terpeast
    And btw, happy new year everyone!
  25. Terpeast
    Ukie further south and bit slower
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