Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon
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Like I said… Euro’s bazooka.
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Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day. hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north. And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that.
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Agree. Love what the 18z euro is showing. Looks like it’s loading up its bazooka and aiming it right at us.
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My mby station maxed at exactly 50 degrees today. Now 40 and dropping. On clear days, it is one of the lowest at night and one of the highest in full sun. that said, snowpack is still decent. 85-90% coverage with bare ground being south facing inclines.
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It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? (I’m actually gonna do the same…)
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34 with cloud cover, dews at only 22. If the cloud cover holds, the snowpack should hold, too. What's left after today will remain for the rest of the week.
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Pretty big changes. Lots to resolve yet. This is going to be one of those cases where models won’t have anything pinned down until inside 96 hours or so
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Low of 19 so far
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Yeah, their stats only compare the AIFS with the other AI models, but not the NWP models. I usually like to compare AI vs NWP of the same model family (Euro AI vs NWP, GFS AI vs NWP, etc). That’s where I got my assessment from.
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Wouldn’t be surprised if this went into OT
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23.4 so far for the low
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Not really true, sorry edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member.
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I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once.
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Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs.
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And do you have to book tix in advance or can you just walk right up and rent a tube?
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While I wouldn’t paint them a fraud unless they outright steal other people’s work, they have a pattern of overhyping cold shots. Like posting an op or control run showing widespread -20/-30 departures at 10+ days out on social media, being too declarative in their forecast instead of showing comparisons, and everyone running with it, while ensembles show a more conservative departure.
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Snowpack holding on strong despite the sun and temp pushing 40
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I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east.
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CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS.
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I don’t know about 60s, but I imagine making a run at 50 wouldn’t be too difficult without the pack
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If we’re calling 39 a mini torch, you know it’s been pretty cold for a long duration.
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Low of 27, bit warm compared to other places
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Especially considering this winter was, on paper, supposed to be a ratter. I know you were skeptical, and that was a good call on your part. I initially thought ratter, but when I checked the analogs and adjusted for recent climate, I was like “hmm, maybe not as bad as we think it’s going to be.” It’s in the thread title of my outlook
