Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Always take the sure thing. Generally speaking, though... Sunday isn't yet a sure thing even at this range lol
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Anyone in Leesburg/Purcellville/Reston seeing flurries? Nothing falling here in Ashburn
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Same here. Only south facing inclines are bare ground. My north side is still covered, thinking we've surpassed last year's snow cover in terms of length. Btw, radar looks good. But not seeing anything falling outside... yet?
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Low of 12, now 19
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If you check the h5 maps and compare with previous runs, it’ll be obvious how chaotic all the pieces are up there especially on the gfs. Plus that ice to rain scenario had little or no ensemble support on 18z, and I think 0z gefs won’t show much support either.
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More poleward aleutian/AK ridging, and hints of scandinavian ridging sneaking into the AO domain. If they connect, first half of Feb is gonna be cold
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The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging.
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Only 31 for the high.
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CMC is on par with GFS for 6-10 day verification in North America over the past month or two. Euro and AIFS better. I think the next week's storm(?) is going to be a 72-hour or less tracking thing. Beyond that, we might be playing the roulette wheel.
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Its past 11 and its only 26
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Excellent post. One thing I'm watching for wrt end of Jan into Feb is how the Alaska ridge evolves or trends. The GFS ensembles want to retrograde it SW to the Aleutians, causing the crazy warm SE ridge look. But the Euro ensembles have it split down the middle, 50% retrogrades it NW and makes a poleward ridging connection, keeping the cold across the CONUS. The other half is split between the GFS look and a compromise between the two (which is still "just cold enough" for us). The run-to-run trends are favorable so far, though. Definitely gonna keep an eye on this because it could open up more opportunities for a SECS/MECS in February.
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17.6 for the low
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Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week.
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Very slight dusting, enough to call it a trace
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Light snow but no dusting yet
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Flurries in ashburn. 28
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Haha don’t hold your breath
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I wouldn’t take AI too seriously when it comes to thermals. While they do pretty well at upper level verification, they actually do poorly with temps.
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Probably an erroneous thing. Might be gone next run
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I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do.
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I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges.
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AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow
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GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time.
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And here comes another s/w. Four corners at hr 150
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Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit
