Terpeast

The past two winters had all the cold air go to the other side of the globe. Siberia had record breaking cold. This year, though, we’ve had an open feed of cold to our side. The EPO helps bring it to our side, while the AO keeps it here longer. I’ll be tracking the gulf coast storm soon, it will be fun and interesting to watch

Thats more of a backyard thing than the big picture, though.

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

16.2/1.3

Agreed. Its a mishmash of competing influences that makes it essentially an enso neutral winter in the mid latitudes. And I’ll say we had a productive January with the number of trackable events, prevailing cold air, and the number of days with snowcover. Mby 11”+ on the month where 7-8” is climo. If we stay cold for even half of Feb, we may reach climo or close to it.

Not AN yet, but getting closer. I had over 11 inches in January so far, which brings me to 60% of climo on the season. Some places are 75% there

Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse

I suspect that we’re in the bubble phase of the AI hype though. Two years from now, all that froth will dissipate and the so and so things we’d never heard of will fall away back into obscurity while we return to the big boys like Microsoft, Apache, etc.

Saw a few flurries in ashburn, but nothing too remarkable

It really has. I do some of this stuff for a living and there’s always some new thing every week.

For now, this is the best use case for AI in weather. We are not there yet for mesoscale.

Low of 18

Apparently that 2.0” report in Ashburn wasn’t actually from me, it was from a NWS employee. I just so happened to report that same exact amount.

I’m certain, yes. If the cold air boundary was faster and further south, the fgen band would also have been south. DC would have gotten what it was forecast for, and Harrisburg would have gotten much less.

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95. Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting. What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is. Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” 1/19: 2.0” Season total: 11.8”

I’ll be conservative and report 2.0” because that’s what I measured on the deck and sidewalk.

Smart move. All this slush is gonna ice over. It’ll be a glacier for a week

Had a great time with my daughter in whiteout conditions! I measured 1.5” when we first went out, but the death band dropped another inch on top! Streets had 2” of slush and heavily compacted cement, and it was harder than shoveling 6-7” of powder. On grass and old snow, there was 3” of new snow! I may split the difference and send in 2.5” as my spotter report. But radar says we’re not done yet. Maybe round me up to 3” official?

Going to take my daughter outside. This is what we live for

I’m trying for 2” so maybe the NW suburbs. In the city, not so sure. BWI might get it

Same! But may have been a tad bullish for dc metro

Down to 32.5

Just passed 1”. Now if it keeps up another hour the grass will be completely covered and sleddable. Kid will be very happy with this