Terpeast

Another band incoming from SE

First wisps of Ian up overhead

Leaning towards this kind of thinking/temp departures, too.

Having lived through Ike in Houston in 2008, Ian’s radar imagery gives me goosebumps.

That’s not gonna fly with my Vietnamese wife. She’d be shivering in her thick wool coat at those temps haha

Low 46. Forgot to turn on the heating before bed, and it was 69 in the house this morning.

Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people.

Hope it all stays intact for them. Looks like serious flooding if wind isn’t the main issue.

Looks like guidance is split in 2 schools of thought, one having Ian fizzle in the carolinas and the other driving it up the EC. Must depend on the interaction with the trough

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either. We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere.

I’m not sure that it does. There are a lot of “if”s to make that happen.

Already seeing blue skies behind the line. Barely a trace. Think I got screwed again

Low of 44, ashburn

Yeah I saw that! Is that going to be a first if it actually pans out?

Yeah, if we’re going BN, it’ll be more like -1 or -2. The good news is we don’t even have to get that cold to get good snows as 2009-10 showed.

Worth noting that the 4 corners in the west are warmer than normal in all four cases… and on the flip side, interier NE (especially Maine) are colder than normal in all cases.

Terrible look in August. Now? Not great, but not game over yet. Hoping the trend holds. source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/olra_last30days-3plots.gif

As long as he’s not in a flood zone, all good.

Looks like a copy paste nina winter outlook

For IAD, the range is between 2.6" and 15.8", average is 9". Source https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

I agree with you that it's standard nina climo that we usually get stuck between suppressed cold/dry and warm/wet cutter tracks. With a moderate but weakening nina, -PDO, and the NAO being projected to avg weakly positive, I still lean towards a below normal snowfall this winter. But there are a couple of X factors that didn't exist on previous analogs - one being that the ATL hurricane season has been uncharacteristically quiet, and two being the H2O vapor eruption with undetermined effects on the stratosphere (i.e. there is a long chain of "ifs" that must come true to get -AO from a NH strat warming as a result). Again, leaning BN snowfall, but leaving the door open to a couple of surprises.

Careful what you wish for..

2 are -nao 1 (dwdd) is extreme +nao/+ao And 5 showing a neutral to weak +nao. (that’s where I see consensus)