Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Yup
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Think 33 is the lowest I got. There was frost this time. Everywhere.
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Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?
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Skyline drive on Monday morning between 211 and Stony Man. IMG_4311.MOV
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34 low, no frost.
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Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.
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Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why?
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Low of 35
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
What’s interesting about that winter is that it was backloaded. Most of its snow came in Feb. Overall it was on the cold side though. -
Perhaps, but it’s fun.
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I saw that, but it’s not enough yet. I actually raised this a few weeks ago when ssts in central pac were trending cooler, but that large warm pool off the coast of japan is still keeping the PDO negative. Not as deeply negative as it has been, but still negative for now. I hope for our sub’s sake that it continues to trend toward neutral.
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thanks, and you’re right about the low ACE. When I wrote this, the atlantic was pretty active so I figured that it would catch up… and then it died down after Ian. So I might go down another rabbit hole revisiting low ACE years to see if there any similarities, or if it could possibly throw my outlook off. -
My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
This article points out a few examples of strong clippers with bigger than usual snowfalls in MN. worth noting most of the examples cited happened during nina years. Also that dec 28-29, 2000 was a precursor to the dec 30 blizzard that hit NYC. I see those kinds of systems happening again this winter. Doesn’t mean we (mid atlantic) will get anything out of those, so you do have a valid point. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/january-14-2022-super-clipper.html -
The PDO is still negative
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About the 44 average high being +12 over what we need it to snow, it is not much more than 42 degrees, or +10, 30-50 some years ago. Although 2 degrees can make a big difference in marginal events, let's remember that the delmarva coast had 3 or 4 bomb cyclone events that buried them in snow with blizzard conditions. Why weren't those 36 degree all-rain events, too? Although I'm less excited about this upcoming winter, it's not all doom and gloom. Our time will come eventually.
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Strong signal for aleutian high and -PNA. Maybe a little help from a -NAO
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And it makes our sub cold in the spring and fall, but not winter.
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That’s the million dollar question right there
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Good tweet. But I do wonder about the trend. It was -2 not too long ago, and now it is only -1. Maybe it’s just a blip and will revert back, or maybe it continues toward neutral.
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I share the same concerns. Best we're going to do is slightly below average snowfall and we get there with a storm that "breaks the rules" or threads the needle. We probably end up with even less.
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Fair. Just be aware that cropping an image raises more questions than you’re willing to answer right now. Just sayin’
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Can you post an uncropped version of the second image please? I want to see which analog years you used to make that.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
Terpeast replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hmm. Worth noting 2000 and 2011 were both Ninas, and had 119+ ACE. But 1985, also a nina, finished at only 88. -
Not that great. One decent snowstorm in Jan, plus a couple of nickel and dimers here and there. IAD finished with 12” on the season.
