Jump to content

Terpeast

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    5,326
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Just mowed the lawn in December for the first time in my life. Set the mower to the lowest setting possible. Call it page #108 in the La Nina winter playbook. If it snows just an inch, the grass will be completely covered…
  2. What I wanted to see if we’re gonna snow before the 15th is a more poleward aleutian high shifted more east to dump arctic air east of the rockies. The maps don’t show that and never have until EPS hints toward it dec ~17th or so. Otherwise we can make a -pna work in January but not this time of year.
  3. 12z GEFS still has a signal for an EC storm around the 15th. Still in the game…
  4. Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened
  5. Agreed, and it’s much easier to get a good snowfall out of a -pna in Jan/Feb than it is in December. It’s just not cold enough yet
  6. Looks like a classic 4-8er with no ptype issues. I’d take it and run.
  7. 24 for the low here. Really had to scrape my car
  8. Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January.
  9. November turned out to be +3 and we’re looking at a strong -nao and colder temps in December, so things are on track so far. I would love to get a big snow in December but I’m not seeing deep cold with the aleutian ridge / -pna. If we do get a storm mid-Dec or earlier, the H5 maps over the pacific look like it might not be cold enough for an all snow event. I think this winter will be full of surprises, though.
  10. Yeah, it must be entirely automated. But still.
  11. Nice win, but that 9+ of added time was the most I’ve ever seen
  12. I would rather see a change to cold after the 15th in this case, because this early without a +pna we probably get cold rain even with a decent track and -nao
  13. I’ll start. I’m sure this isn’t the first time a good pattern showed on the models early winter and then fell apart when it was time for to to come to fruition. Have we seen similar mirages in Nov-Dec of recent winters?
  14. Hope you feel better too. The kiddo has been going to daycare and we’ve all gotten sick 3 times in the last 2 months. Running through the list so fast (flu, cold, rsv…)
  15. Down to 28. This air is the driest (dews 0-5 deg) I’ve felt in decades. Had a nasty cough for a week, and the dry air is making it worse.
  16. Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.
  17. Op GFS looks real amped, but the ensemble mean shows a more positively tilted trough. Might mean a colder and more suppressed solution.
  18. Hey, lookie here! I'm not the only one using the word "reload"! Ok, I'll shut up now.
  19. Hope your gut is correct! While I’m not bullish as you, I think we will see a classic N/W suburbs-favored winter that we haven’t seen in a while.
  20. Looks like 1.2” fell here. Decent rainer.
×
×
  • Create New...