Terpeast

Well, that's a wind jackpot east of the apps over my house. I'm happy again!

Best and most dramatic final I’ve ever seen

Breezy, 34. No flurries though. Ashburn.

100% agreed with your point about the misplaced pna ridge. It was never really in a good position to begin with.

Yeah, without using the overused “R” word, the weeklies still maintain a mean eastern trough over the east through Jan. Key is to pull that western ridge far enough east to prevent storms from cutting. Also the NAO seems to be going neutral or weakly positive. That may not be a bad thing with that +TNH.

Doing everything they can to pull us back in

Admittedly I thought those warm SSTs in that area would help create more storminess and maintain 50-50 lows there better, but it may actually be causing more ridging forcing the 50-50 lows out quicker. Also the west coast ridge being too far west doesn’t help either. I don’t think we’ve ever really locked in a +pna all this time.

Should have said “anthropogenic” climate change. But that’s not my point, and I didn’t come here for the politics ok?

While climate change is real, I don’t think it is to blame for this debacle. We never really locked in a +pna in this pattern despite the strong -nao. It looked good on the model runs, but it hasn’t played out as predicted.

So I wanted to share a couple thoughts. I grew up in this area and have lived here up until 2010, and it’s really not common to get sig snows in December… even at all. December is not a snowy month here. We’re normally lucky to even get a couple of inches. I feel that the 6”+ers we got here since 2002 and the 2009 HECS had us spoiled and raised our expectations for snow in Decembers. Even I get caught up in the model drama sometimes, but not getting much, if any, snow in December is the norm as far as I can remember… and that has always been the case here. Onto January!

Seems to be a decadal oscillation. It’s been pos for a while now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_ts.shtml

Yep, there’s that. At least it won’t be 70 degrees on xmas day.

Yep. Digging further west.

OH valley ridge slightly weaker and trough “bridge” starting to appear north of MN & MI. GFS still appears to be digging into its own camp. (At 48h)

That’s what I’m thinking/hoping will happen. That little lead frontrunner wave across the gulf shore might get going and suck some energy out of it.

Possible that both camps are not wrong. Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

The op gfs actually looks like a tick towards euro with the double barrel low look. Gefs appears to be the last hold out.

Haven’t even looked, but the model wars continue for at least another day or two.

See how the butterfly effect in Alaska makes a huge difference? It’s almost as if a polar bear farts in a certain direction…

SLP position actually further east vs 18z

One thing for sure… I don’t envy the NWS forecasters in the eastern 1/3 of the US.

Looks like ICON, but slightly east

0z GFS I notice the Alaska s/w is holding back behind the UL. Most obvious change to me. Don’t know where that’s going but may help with more separation?

Too bad it’s the icon. Or is it?

And latest euro shears it out and digs deeper with a stronger UL over w canada. Goose is cooked on this run.