Terpeast

Well, stay warm!

All the models showed the trace line right along my house for this time of day, so I can say that their forecasts verified. LWX was never bullish on any real accumulating snow east of the blue ridge, so that was pretty spot on.

That's okay. I need to do a few day's worth of errands that I've been putting off far too long. I'll take the thaw and get em done before the reload (oops, there's that word again!)

Officially a trace, with actual snowflakes. I'll take the W.

Mulch circles under each tree are starting to whiten. RA/SN mix.

Actually saw a few flakes mix in. On the board with a "trace" (yes, most of that is sleet, but who cares)

Guess it's time for us east of the blue ridge to pin the slimmest of our hopes on the arctic front snow. Flurries for a minute? I'll take it. Then I'm punting to the 2nd week of Jan.

Think it's now all rain. Ashburn

Still pingers. White patches covering most of the deck. 34.

Trace sleet accum becoming noticeable on my deck

Took the trash out, saw some sleet mixing in.

And now light rain. 34/30

Same as mine. Not a flake out though. Bone dry.

Nothing outside yet

30/23 now

Much better look, especially for January. Now let’s hope this isn’t underestimating the WAR.

Still pretty dry at 900mb, good sign there.

Found another station nearby, can’t say anything of its accuracy but it’s reading 33/26

If going by the 3:1 dp/temp adjustment to wet bulb temp, IAD currently at 36/24 will meet at 33 at saturation. Rain. Could get colder with more CAD, but not with a light wind from the SE.

Nice link! Thanks. I was looking at the NWS 3 day history

The fall line in the recent run appears just west of my house. Probably once you gain elevation after passing Leesburg you’d see something.

IAD dropped from 37 to 32 in the last hour, with a 22 dp.

Only if we get a legit STJ. I don't see it yet.

Looked at the models and trends today. I’m not buying into the anafront, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a brief snow shower or two (no accumulation) just as precip shuts off on fropa. I’ll take that.

I agree with this for 2 reasons: 1. A lot depends on the antecedent airmass and the high pressure position & strength prior to a storm. If you take one specific storm and put the exact same track into a slightly different airmass and a slightly different high up north, then you'll see different results, and you can't solely blame AGW for it. 2. We've seen cold 33 degree rainstorms before. I grew up here, and we've had them every winter. They're nothing new. EDIT: adding a 3rd reason: 3. We seem to be forgetting that in the last several years, the delmarva / coast made out like bandits in their own heater. They had, what, 3 or 4 "bomb cyclones" dumping 18" give or take right on those beaches, right?