Terpeast

12/23: Another 0.1" of slushy sleet graupel mix during the squall, then a mod SN showers for 20 minutes (no additional accums)

I forgot to do some weather stripping on my windows, and my office window (I WFH) was leaking cold air inside. Tried to find weather stripping products, but they were all out of stock or not available today. So I used duct tape as weather stripping. It's working. So far...

You’re in 20147 and your power is still out?

Yeah, I think we're looking for different things with different expectations. Mine are pretty low to begin with for this season, so if we get a couple of 2-4ers/3-6ers, I see it as a "this winter met expectations" sort of thing. For a big winter to break us out of the bad streak, like the kind of winter you want, I think we look to next year.

Blue skies showing in the west, getting windier by the minute.

Appreciate you showing your work. I don't think we're that far apart in our assessments. My low end call for DCA is 7", and your average from non-nino years without Dec snow in DCA is 6". That's one inch. Maybe I strike a more optimistic tone than you do, but when we both drill down into the data, we're one inch apart in our assessments.

Snow has stopped here for now. At least I saw some flakes flying around and it was mod SN for a bit. That was fun. I'll take that as another W.

Mod SN windy

Changed over to light snow!

I’m under that now, it’s just rain. For now.

Back up to 37.

Light rain again. 34

Yep you got spoiled with those Decembers. When I was a kid, we would have been surprised to get snow in December and think that a big winter must be coming. We got bigger snows in March in my time.

Yeah, I’m with you actually. Apart from 2009 and the weird Dec 5 quirk in the 2000’s, December is not typically a big snow month in this area. February is actually our snowiest month with January a very close second. And I think this Nina is on its way out. I did predict a below average snowfall winter with the low end being 7” for DCA and 9” for IAD. I still think we ihit those numbers at minimum. We only need one decent storm to get there.

37 now. Rain has stopped. Skies are lightening to the west.

Not even much wind

Squal line lasted maybe 3 minutes. Back to mod rain/sleet/whatever it is

Seeing graupel hit my windows

Just started pouring. Like a summer tstorm

Sitting at 41. Drizzly.

Up to 45 now

Stuck at 38 all day. IAD went to 46, and I'm only 9 miles from there.

Dropping in real quick... So far December temps are near normal for the MA. With the arctic front though, it's a pretty safe bet to finish the month with slightly below normal temps. Don't know if we'll get -2 like I predicted on the month, but we may get pretty close to that. As far as snowfall, I think it's just been bad luck that we didn't get any for the metros while far interior N&W got a little this morning. In a stubborn La Nina, you need a perfect PNA+ ridge in December to get any snowfall. Despite the "epic" pattern, that was the missing piece. Although I'm punting into the second week of January, I don't buy into the doom and gloom that if we don't get any snow in December during a nina, then the rest of the winter is DOA. I think the nina is on its way out, and the atmosphere is already starting to decouple from the base nina state. We may actually end up with a backloaded winter. This is starting to look like a slightly warmer version of 1985-86 if my outlook continues on track.

12/22: 0.1" of slushy slurpee snow-sleet wet mix. That put me on the board, so that's a W. 11/15: Mood flakes (not counting as a T)

Or if he were a good marketer, he’d say something like “I’m working on a 2 week roll forward from this pattern, and if you’re a snow lover, you’ll love what I’m about to come up with. Follow me and stay tuned.”