Terpeast
-
Posts
5,326 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
We don’t call them clown maps for no reason
-
Plus side to this weather is I can actually go out running. Need to lose these holiday pounds…
-
Not that I take these LR maps literally, but my -1 January call for DC is likely blown even before the month starts. And I have Feb at +3. I’d love to be wrong, but it’s not looking great. I’m starting to sound like psuhoffman, but we only need one decent storm.
-
Well yeah, the weenie in me peeks at those, too. But the met in me knows not to take them too seriously. It’s alright, don’t be too hard on yourself.
-
You’re looking at ptype in the Op at D+10 right?
-
Wow, you’ve changed.
-
60 here in Ashburn. Walked outside with my wife. Loved it.
-
55 here. Think I’ll go for a sunny Jebwalk.
-
Ha ha, point taken. Guess I'm still tracking, but at an arm's length. Not gonna let myself get burned again like I did by that cutter
-
Haven't looked at the 12z gfs, but remember that the gfs held onto its own offshore solution until 5 days before the big cutter... and then it caved. Waiting to see agreement between gfs, euro, and cmc, then I'll start tracking.
-
28 for the low
-
I used to live there during college. It was always extremely muddy throughout the year.
-
Low of 23. Think it was colder than forecast
-
Stats from Ocean City MD or coastal delaware would also be interesting to see. They’ve done a lot better lately.
-
Maybe we should have a separate thread for DCA stats. Oh wait, we already have one. Either way, this conversation is getting kinda boring.
-
Maybe this will be backloaded. Maybe we’ll get nothing. Nobody knows. If we get a 3-4 incher at the end of February, I’ll take the W and then get ready for spring weather. And if we really do get nothing… well… see you next year, I guess.
-
Yeah its crap, at least how it’s modeled for now. It did tick up around an inch though. Best we can hope for in that period is a post frontal wave that pops up within 3-4 days. Otherwise we’re looking into the second half of the month.
-
Thanks. I’m hoping we get a backloaded winter this time. My monthly temp forecasts are tracking well so far, but my -1 January call may already be in trouble even before it starts. We’re going to have a lot of ground to make up after the second week.
-
At this point I'd be ecstatic with one warning snow and one minor advisory event. Hell, I'll take a 3-4 incher and call it a winter.
-
Well there we go. This immediately makes the entire graph suspect. If we really want to get scientific about this, we should cut out anything before 1941. Or pull snowfall records from other stations in/around DC and do a regression against the DCA data, then extrapolate the slope backwards to 1884. Like Bob Chill said, I’m willing to bet the result will have us just needing one prozac instead of two.
-
20 for the low. Thick frost. Ashburn
-
Like clockwork huh?
-
The way I read this graph is that 100 years ago, we averaged 10 more inches of snow a year than we do now. Or put another way, average snow decreased by 45% over 100 years. To be fair, the downtrend started way early - around the 1910s to 1920s. By the 40s and 50s, we were getting similar amounts as now. Then the 60s went bonkers, then back down to around 13-15” a year. I wonder though, is there a discontinuity in this graph when they changed the measuring station to DCA? And what year was that?
-
Well then, lets bring on the salt!
-
That’s why I’m a lot more hopeful for Jan-Feb. I also heard the same for the 2013-15 winters
